With barely a month into the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, SEYI ODEWALE examines the reason and the historical background to the war many described as unprovoked, the extent of damage, the effect on the world and says it is history repeating itself

When the world woke up on February 24, 2022, with the news of Russia launching what it termed “special military operation”, invading the Republic of Ukraine, mixed feelings gripped the minds of many across the globe.

Despite the brinkmanship and the diplomatic manoeuvrings by the West and entire Europe, aimed at discouraging the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s belligerent stance on the Republic of Ukraine, Putin shocked the world by deploying his country’s arsenal in Ukraine, to shell the country, pound it, and disrupt the peace of Europe.

With the invasion in its fourth week, major cities of Ukraine in ruins, and its citizens and residents killed and displaced, Ukraine may have suffered the heaviest blow ever seen in the contemporary history of the invasion of any country in the world.

Historical background to the invasion
Historically, the current invasion of Ukraine by Russia appeared to have been a repetition of what Russia did in the past. Between 1917 and 1921 when there was the Soviet–Ukrainian War, or Ukrainian Civil War, a term commonly used in post-Soviet Ukraine for the events that took place between 1917 and 1921.

It is nowadays regarded essentially as a war between the Ukrainian People’s Republic and the Bolsheviks (the Ukrainian, Soviet Republic, and RSFSR). The war started soon after the October Revolution when Lenin dispatched Antonov’s expeditionary group to Ukraine and Southern Russia.

The Bolsheviks were Russian communists in the early 20th Century. The majority of the Russian Social Democratic Party was a Marxist political party. At the party congress in 1903, members disagreed with each other.

Soviet historical tradition viewed the 1917 war as an occupation of Ukraine by military forces of Western and Central Europe, including the Polish Republic’s military – the Bolshevik victory constituting Ukraine’s liberation from these forces. However, modern Ukrainian historians consider it a failed war of Independence by the Ukrainian People’s Republic against the Bolsheviks.

After the February Revolution of 1917, the nationalities within the tsarist empire (renamed the Russian Republic) demanded national autonomy from Petrograd. In the summer of 1917, the provisional government-approved regional administration over some parts of former tsarist Ukraine.

In October 1917 the government of Ukraine denounced the Bolsheviks’ armed revolt and declared it would decisively fight against any attempted coup in Ukraine. A special joint committee for the preservation of revolution was organised to keep the situation under control. The Kiev Military District command tried to prevent a Bolshevik coup, leading to street fights and eventually surrendering of pro-Bolshevik troops in the city.

On November 14, 1917, the Ukrainian Central Rada issued its “Appeal of the Central Council to the citizens of Ukraine” in which it sanctioned the transfer of the state power in Ukraine to itself. On November 16 a joint session of the Rada and executive committee of the local workers and soldiers, soviets recognised the Central Rada as the regional authority in Ukraine.

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On November 20, 1917, the Rada declared Ukraine the Ukrainian People’s Republic as an autonomous part of the Russian Republic and scheduled on January 9, 1918, elections to a Ukrainian Constituent Assembly. The Secretary of Military Affairs Symon Petliura expressed his intentions to unite both the South-Western and Romanian fronts that were stretched across Ukraine into one Ukrainian Front under the command of Colonel-General Dmitry Shcherbachev.

Bolsheviks, on December 17, 1917, planned an All-Ukrainian Congress of Soviets and on December 11–12, 1917 set off several uprisings across Ukraine in Kiev, Odessa, Vinnytsia. They were successfully defeated by the Rada. On December 17, 1917, Sovnarkom that initiated peace talks with Central Powers earlier that month, sent a 48-hour ultimatum to the Rada requesting it stop “counterrevolutionary actions” or prepare for war.

Also on December 17, 1917, Reingold Berzins led his troops from Minsk towards Kharkiv to Don. They engaged in an armed conflict at a rail station in Bakhmach with the Ukrainian troops who refused to let the Red forces (three regiments and an artillery division) pass.

The Central Rada did not accept the accusations and stated its conditions: recognition of the Ukrainian People’s Republic, non-interference in its internal affairs and affairs of the newly organised Ukrainian Front, permission on transferring of Ukrainised troops to Ukraine, division of the former imperial finances, participation of the Ukrainian People’s Republic in the general peace negotiations.

The same day the All-Ukrainian Congress of Soviets in Kiev, after the Bolshevik delegation left, recognised the authority of the Ukrainian government, and denounced the ultimatum of the Russian government. The Kiev Bolsheviks in their turn denounced that congress and scheduled another one in Kharkiv.

The next day, Sovnarkom in Moscow decided for war. Vladimir Antonov-Ovseyenko was appointed the commander-in-chief of the expeditionary force against Kaledin and South Russia, while near the borders with Ukraine (Bryansk–Belgorod) Red troops began to gather.

The Kievan Bolsheviks who fled to Kharkiv joined the regional Congress of Soviets of the Donetsk-Krivoy Rog Soviet Republic. They then declared the meeting the First All-Ukrainian Congress of Soviets that announced the creation of the Ukrainian People’s Republic of Soviets. It called the Central Rada of Ukraine an enemy of the people declaring war against it on January 2.

The Rada then broke all ties with Petrograd on January 22, 1918, and declared independence, thereby commencing the Ukrainian War of Independence. It was around this point that Bolshevik troops began invading Ukraine from Russia. Russian military units from Kharkiv, Moscow, Minsk, and the Baltic Fleet invaded Ukraine

The Bolsheviks, numbering around 30,000 and composed of Russian army regulars stationed at the front, many garrisoned units, and the Red Guard detachments composed of laborers from Kharkov gubernia and the Donbass, began by advancing from the northeast led by Vladimir Antonov-Ovseyenko and Mikhail Muravyov. The Ukrainian forces at the time of the invasion consisted of about 15,000 made up of volunteer detachments and several battalions of the Free Cossacks and the Sich Riflemen.

The invasion of pro-Soviet forces from Russia was accompanied by uprisings initiated in Ukraine by the local Bolsheviks in the developed cities throughout the territory of left-bank Ukraine as well as right-bank Ukraine.

The Bolsheviks led by Yevgenia Bosch conducted a successful uprising in Vinnytsia sometime in December 1917. They took charge of the 2nd Guard Corps and moved towards Kiev to help the Bolsheviks in the city. Pavlo Skoropadsky with a regiment of the Free Cossacks managed to stop them near Zhmerynka, disarm them, and deport them to Russia.

The other Bolshevik forces captured Khakiv (December 26), Yekaterinoslav (January 9), Aleksandrovsk (January 15), and Poltava (January 20) on their way to Kiev. On January 27, the Bolshevik army groups converged in Bakmach and then set off under the command of Muravyov to take Kiev.

Reason for the invasion
On February 24, Putin announced he was launching an assault “to defend people who for eight years are suffering persecution and genocide by the Kiev regime,” a reference to a false claim about the government in Ukraine. He demanded Ukraine lay down its weapons or be “responsible for the bloodshed.” He claimed the Russian military seeks “demilitarisation and denazification” but not an occupation; attacks shortly followed from multiple fronts and targeted toward multiple cities.

There are also fears expressed by Russia that Ukraine’s intention of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) constitutes a security threat, hence Ukraine must be stopped. Not only this, but Russia also regarded the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, whose independence Russia had just recognised before the invasion, as her brothers and would support them to free them from Ukraine at all costs.

A research director in the Russia studies programme at the CNA, Michael Kofman, said in an interview posted on Twitter on February 25, that: “They (Russia) had a military operation that’s now in progress, first to try to achieve regime change, encircle the capital, and try to overthrow the Ukrainian government, and then a much larger set of pincer movements to encircle and envelope Ukrainian forces. Try to do this quickly and force the surrender of isolated pockets.”
But the Russian army has not been able to completely roll over Ukrainian forces, and some analysts have suggested Moscow may have been surprised at Ukraine’s resistance. Pentagon officials said as of March 4, Russia has committed about 92 percent of its combat power so far. Ukraine’s airspace remains contested.

Extent of damages
It has been roughly estimated that Ukraine has lost more than $100billion in terms of property, while no fewer than 6.5 million according to the United Nations’ estimation, have been internally displaced in Ukraine due to the war. While at least 816 civilians have been killed in Ukraine since the conflict began.
Also, Russia has hit places like the capital, Kiev, and Kharkiv and Kramatorsk in the east, causing many to die, while the Russian Missiles have equally destroyed an aircraft repair plant near the airport in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, Mayor Andriy Sadovy

International Reactions
Most countries of the world, except China and North Korea, which seemed indifferent to what Russia has done so far, have condemned what they popularly termed unprovoked war against Ukraine.

There have also been several sanctions imposed on Russia, which in no time will have a damning effect on her economy and commerce.

Canada, the European Union, Japan, New Zealand, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States have unveiled a series of sanctions against Russia targeting banks, oil refineries, and military exports.
The Western allies also said they would impose restrictions on Russia’s central bank to limit its ability to support the rouble and finance Putin’s war effort. The measures aim at “asphyxiating Russia’s economy,” said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.

The United States also aimed at Russia’s oil refining sector with new export curbs. The new round of sanctions announced by the White House banned the export of specific refining technologies, making it harder for Russia to modernise its oil refineries.

Washington in conjunction with its allies also barred some of Russia’s banks from the SWIFT international payments system list officials said was still being finalised with EU partners

The White House released a statement saying measures will also include “wide restrictions on semiconductors, telecommunication, encryption security, lasers, sensors, navigation, avionics, and maritime technologies”.

It also targeted military end-users, including the Russian defence ministry.
The 27-country EU equally imposed several packages of sanctions on Russia, including a ban on the export of specific refining technologies to Russia from Europe.

The group said it was planning to close its airspace to Russian aircraft, including the private jets of Russian oligarchs. It has also banned the Russian state-owned television network Russia Today and the news agency Sputnik.