By Mudiaga Affe
The next general election is still 23 months away, but the game plan over who occupies the nation’s numero uno position has begun. Just name it: intrigue, horse-trading, scheming, and shenanigans are some of the accompanying attributes that so far top the situation reports in the race.

That these features are in the air is not surprising. The Nigerian president, after all, is the biggest masquerade in the country’s political space. So, whoever occupies this exalted position wields enormous power. In literal fashion, the occupier has the power of life and death.

This, perhaps, explains why politicians and their parties, especially the All Progressives Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party, are not giving anything to chance to ensure that they are in the saddle of authority in the next dispensation. This may also explain why the North and the South syndrome as well as the South-East, South-South, South-West, North-East, North-Central, North-West calculations rent the air wave daily. In fact, zoning has become the most frequently used word today in the country.

Indeed, while some heavyweight politicians and analysts are seeking the emergence of a southern candidate for an election that is already generating controversy in the face of security challenges, some others are canvassing that a northerner should continue to hold the forte.

Those who favour power shift to the south argue, and vehemently too, the move will further promote the democratic tenets, equity and balance of power among the regions in the country.

Governors Nasir el-Rufai (Kaduna); Prof. Babagana Zulum (Borno); Godwin Obaseki (Edo); Aminu Masari (Katsina); Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano); former Zamfara State Governor, Abdul-Aziz Yari, and a former Senate Leader, Senator Ali Ndume, are in the community of top political wigs that favour the return of power to the south in 2023.

Other eminent Nigerians that back the move are a former military president, Ibrahim Babangida; Afenifere leader, Ayo Adebanjo; Ijaw leader, Chief Edwin Clark; and a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal.

The Nigerian political class has for many years observed an unwritten rule that allows the presidential slot rotated between the Muslim-dominated north and mainly Christian-dominated south.

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, who is from Katsina State in the North-West, defeated Dr. Goodluck Jonathan from Bayelsa State in the South-South in the 2015 presidential poll. Ex-President Jonathan took over from the late President Umaru Yar’Adua, a northerner.

Why south should have it

According to el-Rufai, there is a system of rotation, in which everyone agrees that if the north rules for eight years, the south will rule for eight years.

“That is why I came out and said that after President Buhari has been in office for eight years, no northerner should run for the office. Let southerners also have eight years,” he argued.

Unlike the PDP, the APC constitution does not make provision for the rotational presidency, el-Rufai noted, saying there is an understanding that the Presidency should rotate between the two political zones for the sake of justice, equity, and fair play.

Supporting el-Rufai’s position, Zulum also holds the view that in the spirit of fairness, power should go to the south in 2023.

The country is moving into an inevitable tension, Zulum noted, positing that a section of the country must not be denied the opportunity to lead.

“The issue of power rotation is a covenant between us hence the need to shift the power to the South. I have advocated power to shift to the South and I will continue to do so. Nobody should say that I am saying this because I am looking for the position of vice president; I don’t have an interest.

“I don’t have an interest in becoming the president or the vice president now. Let Southerners compete among themselves- be it South-South or South-East or South-West. This is something we need to do,” the Borno governor said.

Ganduje also aligned himself with the advocacy for a president of southern extraction when he said that zoning, though not in the constitution, is a strategy for winning elections.

Similarly, while Yari agrees that power should rotate to the south in 2023, Senator Ndume said it would be equivalent to a third term if the APC fielded a northerner as its presidential candidate in 2023.

Another elder statesman, Alhaji Tanko Yakassai noted that zoning of the presidency to any particular region of the country was at the discretion of political parties, the south should be allowed to produce the next president since the north would have concluded its eight years run in President Buhari’s administration.

Elder statesmen, Adebanjo and Clark toe the same line of reasoning, they specifically want a South-easterner to be at the apogee of the nation’s leadership in 2023. Former President Babangida also wants a candidate from the South-East to call the shots at the presidency in 2023.
Differing a little in this line of argument, Obaseki, urged the PDP to zone its 2023 presidential ticket to the South-South.

2023 Presidency: The power game over zoning, rotation

Obaseki, at a reception in honour of Chief Dan Orbih, the new National Vice Chairman (South-South) of the PDP, stressed that for equity to prevail, the South-south should produce the next president.

North, it’s not time to relinquish power

A member of the PDP Board of Trustees (BoT), Adamu Waziri, said the party’s presidential ticket should be zoned to the north. Waziri argues that former President Jonathan should not have contested against Buhari in 2015. Also, a former Senate Chief Whip, Owie, said the presidency should remain with the North until 2027.

According to Owie, by 2023 the North still has four years to equate the power rotation agreement with the south.
He said, “Former President Obasanjo did the first eight years and Umaru Yar’Adua took a turn for slightly over two years. Ex-President Jonathan took over to complete that administration and ran another four years.

“When Jonathan was contesting in 2015, I was one of those who told him not to contest because what is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. If you add up Obasanjo and Jonathan presidencies, the south has taken 14 years and 180 days. If you calculate Yar’Adua and Buhari regimes, in 2023 it will be 10 years, 240 days. By 2023, there will be four years more for the North to produce the president of Nigeria.

“Let nobody be deceived, Governor Nasir el-Rufai that is seeking a shift is deceiving us. By the time their four years plus is over (2027), it will be the turn of the South and when that time comes, it should go to the South-East. But by 2023, the presidency must remain in the North”.

From Kaduna State, the chairman, Bala Mohammed Vanguard, Mr. Musa Haruna, specifically asked the PDP to zone its ticket to the North-East, saying it is the turn of the region to field a presidential candidate.

According to Haruna, the North-East deserves the presidential slot because it is the least developed zone in the country.

Zoning by parties

Article 20 (iv) (d) of the ruling APC constitution states in parts, “The National Working Committee shall, subject to the approval of the National Executive Committee, make rules and regulations for the nomination of candidates through primary elections.

“All such rule, regulations and guidelines shall take into consideration and uphold the principle of federal character, gender balance, geopolitical spread and rotation of offices, to as much as possible, ensure balance within the constituency covered.”

Against this backrop, the Director-General of the Progressive Governors Forum, Dr. Salihu Lukman, insists the APC has not zoned the 2023 presidency.

By implication, therefore, the party has left the issue of zoning open.

Similarly, the PDP says it has yet decide on the zone that would produce its candidate for the 2023 presidential election.

However, the chairman of the party’s committee on the Review of the 2019 General Elections, Governor Bala Mohammed, recently rattled some sections of the country by recommending that the PDP should throw the contest open for its 2023 presidential ticket.

Mohammed said, “We think that every Nigerian from every part of the country should be allowed to choose the best candidate through a credible primary election as a way of institutionalising a merit-based leadership recruitment process for the country.”

But, its National Publicity Secretary, Kola Ologbondiyan, stated that the PDP had not adopted any of the recommendations of the Bala Mohammed-led committee, including that of zoning its presidential ticket.

Those eyeing the top job
Despite the arguments for or against zoning, political gladiators from the two major parties, APC and PDP, are beginning to make subtle moves ahead of the presidential battle.

For instance, top on the list of those believed to be positioning themselves for the APC ticket from the South-West are former Lagos State Governor, Bola Tinubu; and Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi. Speculations are rife that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo will also signify interest at a convenient time based on certain permutations.

In the North-Central, Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello, has shown interest in the race, while a former Zamfara State Governor, Ahmed Sani, from the North-West, has also indicated interest. It is also widely believed that former Kano State governor, Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has been secretly oiling his Kwankwasiya machinery preparatory to plunging into the race.

From the South-South, there are credible speculations that the Minister of Transportation, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, has his eyes on the top job.

There is also governor of Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi, who recently defected from the PDP to the APC is also speculated to have interest in contesting the presidential election as a candidate from the South-East.

In the PDP, although he has not made his interest known publicly, Adamu, the son of the former vice-president Atiku Abubakar, disclosed had last year hinted that his father would run for the presidency in 2023.

The governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, is also reportedly planning to run. The former House of Representatives speaker is believed to have commenced an underground campaign for the race.

Although not yet confirmed, there are alleged pressures from some quarters to get the former President, Goodluck Jonathan to contest the election. Still a staunch member of the PDP, the speculators have pencilled Jonathan to likely contest on the APC platform even though he has repeatedly denied his interest in a job he vacated six years ago.

It is yet unclear if the Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, has interest in the presidential race or not.
However, according to an inside source, Wike is currently preoccupied with infrastructural development of his state.

Answer our call contest for 2023 presidential election, Mohammed told

“What is immediate preoccupation of our governor is delivering democracy dividends to his people, which all Nigerians acknowledge he is doing very well. Time to speak up will come.”

Where will the pendulum swing? It’s anyone’s guess. And the nation waits with bated breath, just as the clock ticks slowly, surely towards 2023!