Tinubu will beat Obi before noon if Atiku withdraws from presidential race — former VP’s aide

Demola Olarewaju, the Senior Political Assistant, to Atiku Abubakar, has said President Bola Tinubu would defeat the Nigeria Democratic Congress presidential candidate, Peter Obi, even if the African Democratic Congress candidate steps down.

Olarewaju made the assertion on Tuesday while reacting to growing calls for opposition politicians to rally behind a single presidential candidate ahead of the 2027 general election.

He argued that Atiku’s withdrawal would not automatically transfer his political support base, particularly in northern Nigeria, to Obi.

According to the former vice president’s aide, Tinubu would retain a significant share of northern votes by leveraging religious considerations and his campaign for a second term.

“If Atiku steps down and campaigns for Obi in the North, Tinubu still wins Northern votes with the Muslim/Muslim + ‘just 4 more years’ gambit,” Olarewaju said.

He went further to make a blunt prediction about the likely outcome of a Tinubu-Obi contest without Atiku on the ballot.

“If Atiku steps down today, Tinubu wins Northern votes and defeats Obi before 12pm,” he said.

Olarewaju’s comments come amid renewed efforts by opposition leaders and political groups to forge a common platform capable of challenging Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress in 2027.

Atiku, Obi and other opposition figures have been involved in consultations over possible political realignment ahead of the election, with the possibility of a single opposition candidate remaining a major subject of debate.

Recent consultations have focused on preventing vote splitting among opposition parties, although no consensus candidate has emerged.

However, Olarewaju dismissed the assumption that Atiku’s endorsement of Obi would be enough to move his supporters behind the former Anambra State governor.

“Endorsements don’t win elections, names do,” he said.

To support his argument, he cited recent elections in Anambra State, where he said Obi’s endorsements did not translate into victories for candidates he supported.

Olarewaju claimed Obi endorsed Labour Party’s Justina Azuka in the 2025 Anambra House of Assembly election but she lost the contest.

He also said Obi campaigned for former Minister of Aviation, George Moghalu, during the Anambra governorship election, but the Labour Party still failed to win.

“Obi campaigned for George Moghalu in Anambra gubernatorial and Labour Party still lost – because Obi was not on the ballot alongside,” he said.

He therefore urged those pressuring Atiku to withdraw from the presidential race and endorse Obi to stop what he described as political blackmail.

“If Atiku is not on the ballot, the base won’t shift despite endorsement – stop the blackmail,” Olarewaju said.

The former vice president’s aide also accused Obi’s supporters of unfairly targeting Atiku and his political camp, arguing that their conduct had become counterproductive to the opposition’s efforts to build a united front.

“This unnecessary harassment and political blackmail of another candidate is entirely unbecoming of Obi supporters, totally nauseating and honestly just looking beggarly and tacky now,” he said.

Olarewaju further expressed resentment over what he described as the treatment of Atiku and his supporters by Obi and his camp, recalling that Atiku had selected Obi as his running mate for the 2019 presidential election.

“If Atiku steps down and tells us to support Obi, I’ll gladly sit out 2027 because Obi and his supporters have conducted themselves far less than honourably towards Atiku and supporters after Atiku had chosen him to run alongside in 2019,” he said.

He added that Atiku “doesn’t deserve this” and predicted that the political consequences of the current disagreement would eventually become apparent.

Olarewaju also accused Obi of abandoning the opposition coalition for personal political ambition, insisting that the former Anambra governor should be prepared to face other political contenders in the 2027 contest.

“Obi joined the coalition and betrayed it for selfish ambition – let everyone meet on the field of politics; what will be must be,” he said.

The senior aide, however, made his own political preference clear, saying his camp remained committed to an Atiku-Amaechi ticket ahead of the 2027 election.

“It’s Atiku-Amaechi for us over here and we hope you all will be ok over there,” Olarewaju said.

His comments are expected to intensify the debate over who should lead any opposition coalition against Tinubu, particularly as political actors weigh whether individual candidates should sacrifice their ambitions for a single presidential ticket.

With the 2027 election still ahead, the question of whether Atiku, Obi or another opposition figure should emerge as the coalition’s presidential candidate remains unresolved, while Tinubu’s camp continues to face an opposition landscape marked by competing ambitions and ongoing negotiations.