By Vincent Egunyanga, Cajetan Mmuta, and Anthony Otaru
Nigeria’s crude oil production has surged to its highest level in nine months, raising hopes of a fiscal boost. Yet, the daily reality for millions of Nigerians is worsening hunger and economic hardship.
Figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show that the country pumped 1.81 million barrels of crude oil per day in July 2025, up from 1.54 million in June, a 17 per cent jump.
It is the best performance since October 2024, driven by tighter security in the Niger Delta, reopening of shut-in wells, and progress in curbing oil theft and pipeline vandalism.
With global oil prices above $80 per barrel, the surge could deliver billions in extra foreign exchange. Oil still accounts for over 80 per cent of export earnings and more than half of government revenue.
But as barrels rise, plates are empty: 31 million Nigerians face acute food insecurity, according to the United Nations, while the World Food Programme (WFP) has cut rations due to a massive funding shortfall.
A professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Uyo, Akpan Hogan Ekpo, believes the oil windfall will mean little unless the government tackles insecurity, which has crippled food production.
“You cannot feed a nation when farmers are afraid to enter their fields,” he told ThisNigeria. “We need to secure farmlands in the North and Middle Belt so that production can resume at scale. This is the Foundation for any sustainable food security plan.”
Ekpo also called for a dramatic increase in social welfare transfers — from the current ₦25,000 per household to ₦100,000 monthly — to stimulate demand and reduce immediate hunger.
“That money will go straight into food and household needs, boosting demand for locally produced goods and services,” he said. “When people can buy, manufacturers ramp up production, which in turn creates jobs.”
He urged the government to stop “sinking funds into prestige projects” like the Lagos–Calabar highway, which will take years to complete and yield minimal short-term relief.
Instead, he advocated for urgent investment in power supply, noting that industrial hubs require at least 20 hours of power daily, and that generators alone cannot drive development.
Other areas of attention should include feeder roads where “farm produce must reach city markets quickly to cut prices and reduce waste.”
Additionally, river transport is facilitated by communities in riverine areas, who use speedboats for more effortless movement of goods.
“Every delay in these interventions pushes more Nigerians into multi-dimensional poverty,” Ekpo warned.
For Emeka Umeagbalasi, Chairman of the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (InterSociety), the hunger crisis is a symptom of deeper governance failures.
“If we are producing 1.8 million barrels daily and still borrowing massively, something is fundamentally wrong,” he said. “This government’s running costs are funded largely by debt — over $21 billion recently approved by the Senate — yet there’s little to show in terms of improved living conditions.”
Umeagbalasi accused successive administrations of allowing insecurity in food-producing regions to persist, citing Plateau, Southern Kaduna, Benue, and Niger states as examples.
“These areas used to be the nation’s breadbasket, but today jihadist attacks have forced farmers off the land. Without addressing this, no amount of oil revenue will solve the hunger problem,” he said.
He argued that the government’s economic management style is “makeshift” and reactive, lacking strategic planning. “We have one of the most fertile landmasses in the world, yet we can’t feed ourselves. That’s not just policy failure, it’s negligence.”
The Coalition of South East Youth Leaders (COSEYL) sees the oil windfall as a moral and economic imperative to act.
“We cannot celebrate increased oil production when 31 million Nigerians are going to bed hungry,” said COSEYL President General, Comrade Goodluck Ibem. “Government must re-evaluate its budget priorities and increase allocations for agriculture and food security.”
Ibem called for emergency relief programs, direct food aid to vulnerable populations, and transparent accounting for oil revenues. “If this windfall disappears into recurrent spending and political projects, we will have squandered a critical opportunity to turn the tide on hunger.”
COSEYL also urged collaboration with civil society and local communities to ensure relief reaches those most in need. “The oil wealth belongs to all Nigerians, and it must be deployed to save lives now, not after another round of bureaucratic delays.”
A former Minister of Information and ex-Ohanaeze Ndigbo President-General, Chief John Nwodo, said the removal of fuel subsidies was meant to free resources for development, but poor governance squandered the opportunity.
“In developed economies, local governments drive service delivery in education, agriculture, roads, and security,” he said. “Here, subsidy savings have not been injected into vital productive areas. Instead, we have high costs of living, stagnant local economies, and deepening poverty.”
Nwodo believes that without strengthening local governance and improving fiscal discipline, even record oil revenues will fail to translate into improved living standards.
While July’s oil output brings fiscal breathing space, experts agree that without immediate security measures, targeted welfare programs, and better spending discipline, the paradox of “full barrels, empty plates” will only deepen.
The next few months, they warn, will determine whether Nigeria’s oil boom is remembered as a turning point, or another squandered windfall.
