By Seyi Odewale
Former President Goodluck Jonathan is most unlikely to be on the ballot in Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election, despite heavy and unprecedented pressures on him to throw his bowler hat in the ring for a possible comeback bid.
Sources close to the former leader told ThisNigeria on Sunday that, notwithstanding speculations and persistent lobbying from influential northern political figures, it would take a political miracle for the ex-president to return to the soapbox.
“The man is just enjoying the attention the issue brings to him,” an impeccable source said.
“But he is not a fool and knows when to swim or hold back. He knows the Northerners are just baiting him. The same North that worked against him in 2015 now says he is their beloved son? Because they want to use him against a Southern incumbent president? The man knows better.”
*Why the odds are against him
Those familiar with his thinking list several powerful deterrents to any 2027 presidential run. Chief among them are: the formidable incumbency of President Bola Tinubu, Jonathan’s lack of a strong political machine, his dwindling financial muscle for an ultra-expensive modern campaign, a desire to preserve his hard-earned international prestige, and the ADC conundrum, an alternative platform option that insiders admit is riddled with political landmines.
Another often-overlooked factor, according to family and political associates, is the reluctance of Dame Patience Jonathan, the ex-First Lady, to subject her husband to the rigours and bruises of another presidential race.
*Facing the Tinubu fortress
“There is no serious plan for 2027,” another insider declared.
“The former president has weighed the options and concluded that it is not worth the fight,” a 2015 campaign team member told this newspaper. “The factors against him are too strong — from the financial requirements to the political realities of facing an incumbent like Tinubu.”
Although Jonathan has not publicly declared his intentions, he has given no sign of assembling a campaign structure or engaging in the quiet but intense politicking that typically precedes a presidential declaration.
*Fears loss of global statesman status if defeated by Tinubu
In recent months, Jonathan has spent more time abroad than in domestic political trenches, attending high-profile international conferences, leading election observation missions, and participating in peace-building initiatives across Africa.
An ally noted, “People underestimate how much the political terrain has changed since 2015. The competition is more aggressive, campaigns are costlier, and the electorate is more discerning. The former president prefers to focus on his international assignments and personal life.”
This preference is linked to what close associates describe as a calculated fear of losing his international clout.
Jonathan’s reputation as a democratic statesman, burnished by his historic concession to Buhari in 2015, has brought him prestige and diplomatic assignments.
A diplomatic source told ThisNigeria, “If he runs and loses, especially to Tinubu, it would diminish his standing in global diplomatic circles. Right now, he is seen as a neutral, respected figure. Once you re-enter partisan politics and lose, you become just another defeated politician.”
One of the most cited obstacles is the enormous cost of running a modern presidential campaign. Political operatives say the financial demands have skyrocketed since Jonathan’s first victory in 2011, and even more since his 2015 loss.
“Presidential elections now require a massive war chest,” a Bayelsa-based political associate said. “It’s not just about rallies and adverts; you have to fund a nationwide structure, handle logistics in all 36 states, and maintain loyalty through financial incentives. Without the backing of powerful financiers, it’s impossible to match the ruling party’s spending.”
Jonathan, the source added, has neither the personal fortune nor the current network of billionaire backers willing to commit to a protracted battle against an incumbent president.
*Old political machinery eroded, youthful base out of reach
Equally disadvantageous is the erosion of Jonathan’s once-formidable political structure. Many of his trusted lieutenants from the 2011 and 2015 campaigns have either retired, defected to rival camps, or tethered themselves to state governors for local relevance.
“His old structure is not what it used to be,” said political analyst Abubakar Usman. “Politics is about ground game — and in 2027, that ground game will also be fought online. Jonathan doesn’t have the aggressive social media network or the energetic grassroots presence that today’s political climate demands.”
The generational shift in Nigerian politics, with younger voters demanding direct engagement and digital visibility, further limits his appeal to emerging political demographics.
Perhaps the most formidable obstacle, insiders agree, is President Bola Tinubu himself.
Described by allies and opponents alike as a master strategist, Tinubu commands the advantages of incumbency, control over federal appointments, national security levers, and formidable political resources.
“In Nigerian politics, incumbency is a fortress,” a Lagos-based political analyst explained. “Unless there’s a major implosion in the ruling party, challenging Tinubu in 2027 will require coalition-building and resources on a scale Jonathan simply cannot muster right now.”
Multiple sources confirmed that Dame Patience Jonathan has been vocal in counselling her husband against a 2027 bid.
“She is one of the strongest voices telling him to stay out,” a family associate said. “She knows the toll that a presidential campaign takes — the stress, the endless travel, the political betrayals. She is protective of him and prefers their current life to the turbulence of another campaign.”
While she has largely stepped back from public political commentary, her influence on her husband’s decisions remains significant.
*The ADC conundrum, PDP’s dilemma
Jonathan’s name has occasionally surfaced in connection with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as a possible platform should PDP politics prove unyielding. But insiders dismiss this as unrealistic.
“ADC lacks the national spread, organisational depth, and financial capacity to take on APC in a presidential contest,” said a PDP NEC member. “Rebranding it into a viable platform in under two years is an almost impossible task — and Jonathan does not appear ready to commit to such an uphill fight.”
Within the PDP, Jonathan’s possible return has met mixed reactions. Some senior figures see him as a unifier; others argue that the party must prioritise fresh, younger candidates capable of energising its base.
“There are other aspirants with current structures and backers,” one PDP chieftain told ThisNigeria. “While Jonathan remains respected, the party’s calculation is focused on fresh faces that can reconnect with the electorate.”
Jonathan served as President from 2010 to 2015, completing the term of the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua before winning the 2011 election.
His loss to Buhari in 2015 marked the first time an incumbent president was defeated at the polls in Nigeria’s history.
