Bold reforms or broken promises? Tinubu’s gamble and the call for true accountability
By Lemmy Ughegbe, Ph.D, ANIPR
On 22 May 2025, at a summit convened in Abuja to mark the second anniversary of his administration, the All Progressives Congress formally anointed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as its sole candidate for the 2027 presidential election.
In doing so, the ruling party signalled confidence in his “bold reforms” and a willingness to stake its future on his stewardship despite mounting criticism over Nigeria’s economic malaise and persistent insecurity.
At the heart of the APC’s argument is that Tinubu’s elimination of the fuel subsidy and liberalisation of the foreign exchange regime have “rebooted” the economy, earning plaudits from credit-rating agencies, the International Monetary Fund and foreign investors.
The government points to a return to fiscal discipline, a narrowing fiscal deficit and early signs of renewed inflows into the equities market.
Oil and gas exports, bolstered by more competitive pricing overseas, have fetched higher returns, while the Central Bank’s tighter monetary stance appears to have arrested the naira’s slide against major currencies.
The party insists that these measures have laid the groundwork for sustainable growth and job creation, even as it acknowledges the short-term pain inflicted by rising transport costs and food prices.
Yet for many Nigerians, removing the subsidy represents not a lustrous reform but a stark betrayal of a social contract they believed would shield them from volatile global oil prices.
Critics recall that President Muhammadu Buhari lacked the political courage to remove the subsidy throughout his eight-year tenure. He confined its abolition to a line-item omission in his final budget—an act of deferred accountability that left the heavy lifting to President Tinubu’s administration.
With inflation exceeding 30 per cent, households have watched their spending power collapse, igniting protests from Lagos to Kano and driving labour unions to demand the reinstatement of subsidies or direct cash payments to protect the most vulnerable.
The Nigeria Labour Congress has threatened a “day of rage” unless the government rolls out transparent social safety nets by the end of the year, underscoring the perils of austerity without adequate safeguards.
Security, too, remains an albatross around the President’s neck. Despite occasional claims of territorial gains against Boko Haram and affiliated groups, attacks in the north-east and banditry in the north-west have shown alarming resilience. In the past fortnight alone, insurgents overran two villages near Damaturu, killing dozens and displacing more than 4,000 residents.
In the Niger Delta, piracy and crude-theft gangs continue to plague the nation’s oil infrastructure, undermining production and denting government revenues. Civil-military operations under Operation Hadin Kai have netted thousands of surrenders. Yet, analysts caution that high surrender figures may reflect battlefield pressure rather than a sustainable collapse of violent networks. For many Nigerians, the daily risk of violence overshadows any optimism about economic policy.
On the opposing benches of Nigeria’s fractious political landscape, the Peoples Democratic Party and the Labour Party remain mired in leadership tussles and ideological incoherence. Internal feuds have delayed the PDP’s primary calendar. At the same time, the Labour Party—once buoyed by youthful fervour in 2023—has been riven by competing chairmanship claims, a Supreme Court nullification of its 2021 leadership election and an ongoing power struggle between rival factions.
Yet even as these parties squabble, key figures from across opposition platforms and civil society circles quietly explore a coalition of convenience—an alliance designed to pool resources, unify messaging and present a credible alternative to APC incumbency.
Discussions have involved former ministers, prominent labour leaders and disaffected APC chieftains. By fielding a single presidential ticket drawn from this bloc, they aim to afford disenchanted voters a unified option rather than a scatter of fragmented contests.
Into this debate has intruded a misguided proposal by some lawmakers to make voting compulsory. Under Section 39 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999, “every person shall be entitled to freedom of expression, including the freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart ideas and information without interference,” and Section 77(2) confirms that every adult citizen “shall be entitled to be registered as a voter”—but neither provision compels participation.
Rather than pursue coercion at the ballot box, legislators should focus on reforms that restore confidence in the electoral process: guaranteeing that each vote is accurately counted, criminalising the technical glitches that marred the 2023 presidential election through mandatory paper-audit trials and stringent penalties for tampering, and strengthening INEC’s independence with robust judicial oversight.
Above all, laws should tie public office performance to measurable health, education and infrastructure outcomes so that citizens feel the tangible impact of governance. When votes count, and leaders deliver, enthusiasm at the polls will follow naturally—no mandate of compulsion required.
Complicating opposition efforts is the recent reiteration by Peter Obi—Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate—that he will fight the 2027 election under the LP banner despite its unresolved internal crisis and factional disputes. Obi’s stance underscores both his loyalty to the LP platform and the enduring appeal he commands among a significant swathe of the electorate. Yet it also raises questions about whether the party can marshal the organisational strength, fundraising capacity and grassroots mobilisation required for a nationwide campaign while paralysed by leadership disputes.
Within the APC, the endorsement exposes fault lines between pragmatists who view Tinubu’s political network and personal charisma as indispensable and hard-liners uneasy with his perceived aloofness from grassroots realities.
Some governors privately lament that federal appointments have disproportionately rewarded Lagos insiders rather than key backers in swing states. Others caution that an open primary might have energised the party’s base and quelled notions of top-down imposition. For now, dissenters have acquiesced—yet their silence may not endure if the economy fails to improve measurably by mid-2026.
Regionally, the APC’s standing varies dramatically. Party loyalists in the South West, Tinubu’s home turf, remain generally supportive, though youth branches grumble about high unemployment and recurring fuel queues. In the South East and South South, his approval ratings have slipped amid concerns over militia activity and the slow pace of infrastructure investment.
In the North-Central and North-West, inflation and food insecurity have provoked anger, even as some local leaders appreciate the promise of a strong security apparatus. Nigeria’s vast diaspora has been vocal on social media, with younger professionals in Europe and North America decrying the lack of digital infrastructure and opportunity at home. At the same time, older expatriates weigh in on electoral integrity and human rights concerns.
Internationally, Nigeria’s partners are watching keenly. The UK and US have publicly encouraged the government to maintain its anti-corruption drive and uphold free-and-fair electoral standards. China, by contrast, praises the economic reforms and is poised to deepen investment in critical projects, including rail modernisation and power generation.
Multilateral lenders have offered conditional support contingent on fiscal transparency and tangible progress in tackling insecurity.
For President Tinubu, the APC’s endorsement is neither a coronation nor a guarantee. As he prepares the ground for his second act, he must persuade millions who feel they have borne the brunt of his reforms that tangible dividends will follow.
He needs to articulate a credible strategy for modernising agriculture to tame food prices, expand vocational training to reduce youth unemployment, and roll out conditional cash transfers targeting the poorest 20 per cent of households. His security policy requires a reassessment of community-based intelligence, improved welfare for troops, and genuine demobilisation packages for ex-combatants.
Ultimately, the choice in 2027 will hinge not only on the machinery of incumbency but on whether Nigerians judge Tinubu’s bold gambits to have delivered security, prosperity and good governance—or another chapter of disillusionment.
The APC has thrown down the gauntlet; the President must now prove that his vision for Nigeria can match the aspirations of its people.
Lemmy Ughegbe, PhD writes from Abuja
Email: lemmyughegbeofficial@gmail.com
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