By Mudiaga Affe with reports from correspondents in Lagos, Abuja and Kano
The Lion of Bourdillon roared across the nation last week. What reverberated were views, counterviews, arguments and counterarguments on what import the roar signalled.

Was it a bid of his much touted presidential ambition? If he ran, what are his chances? What are his jokers, his aces, his trump cards?

In other words what options are available to “the Lion” also called the Jagaban? Questions, questions!

Kano, one of Nigeria’s most populated cities, was venue of the event which set tongues wagging. The organisers dubbed it 12th Colloquium and 69th birthday anniversary of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

But in truth, it was to test the political waters, and make a statement that Tinubu was still much in the reckoning for the 2023 presidency, given the off and on frosty relationship with forces at Aso Rock Villa.

This came a day after he (Tinubu) chaired the Arewa National yearly conference and met with Emir of Kano, Ado Bayero. Although the APC National Leader said he picked Kano to prove that Nigeria is one and Yoruba and Fulani people are one and united, his political machinery has gradually been oiled in nearly all the geo-political zone of the country ahead of the 2023 election.
Before the Kano colloquium and Arewa conference in which he delivered the keynote address, the Speakers of states’ houses of assembly from the north-west endorsed Tinubu for president in the 2023 general election, in a move championed by the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly.

A former speaker from Kano, Abdullahi Yanshana, reportedly said, “95 per cent of the votes from Kano in 2023 will be in favour of the national leader of the APC.”

Tinubu, also popularly known as BAT, has dominated the politics of Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre and the rest of the South-West and beyond for over 20 years.
His title, national leader of the APC, gives him power and influence within the party structures.

He also holds the chieftaincy title of Asiwaju of Lagos and Jagaban of the Borgu Kingdom in Niger State. In a country where traditional institutions and leaders are largely respected, the chieftaincy titles will further enhance his power and reach.

With the spread of his political tentacles across different geo-political zones in the country and his capacity to withstand the financial obligations of electioneering, it is believed that Tinubu will go all the way to give his fight for the presidential slot of the APC his best shot.

Indeed, it will be the battle of his life given the mighty forces arraigned against him.

The forces are within and outside his party. They are also evenly spread across the country,  in the north and south, including the South-West where he is the acknowledged supremo.

Hurdles since 2015, anti-Tinubu forces in the APC have been struggling to dislocate his grip on the party, but the fight has not been easy.

The exit of the pioneer national chairman of the party, Chief Bisi Akande for Chief John Odigie-Oyegun was the first attempt.

The reign of Odigie-Oyegun was turbulent and he never saw peace until he was finally replaced with the former governor of Edo State, Adams Oshiomhole, who is Tinubu’s man.

Oshiomhole too never saw peace as the anti-Tinubu forces eased him out on June 25, 2020, alongside members of the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party.

The move was later appended by President Buhari in an action that was believed to have brought temporary relief to the party. However, since that incident, the struggle has been how to outsmart the Tinubu forces.

Again, the ongoing membership revalidation of the ruling party is also seen as one of the designs to bring down Tinubu’s influence.

Within the Aso Rock Villa, it is believed that Tinubu has strong support in the first family. There are also those in the presidency who appreciate the fact that it was his political sagacity  through his unflinching support for President Buhari in 2015 and 2019 that has made them relevant in the present administration.

Tinubu has some powerful foot soldiers like a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, and Chairman of the board of Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND) Kashim Ibrahim-Imam, and many others who believe in him.

According to Lawal, in an interview he granted THISNIGERIA, Bola Tinubu, a national leader of the APC, was instrumental in President Muhammadu Buhari’s victory in 2015 and should be given a chance in 2023.

Lawal said Tinubu rallied funding for the campaign when Buhari had no money to fund his election and brought in an agency from the United States that branded Buhari’s image.

But there are those within the presidency who do not like Tinubu’s guts and would wish to whittle down his influence ahead of the 2023 election, but the Jagaban force is gathering momentum.

The Fayemi, el-Rufai aspect
Some powerful people in the North do not want him because they believe he has money and so much influence. There are insinuations that powerful northern elements in this category may have thrown their weight behind the 2023 presidential aspiration of Dr. Kayode Fayemi, who is the Ekiti State Governor and incumbent Chairman of Nigeria’s Governors Forum (NGF).

The governor of Kaduna State, Nasir el-Rufai, who is also speculated to be in this category, had once openly told the Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, that he was not a Tinubu person. During a webinar to mark his 63rd birthday in 2020, el-Rufai noted that Aregbesola remained his man any day but that Tinubu was not his man.

He (el-Rufai) is believed to be scheming to run a joint ticket with Fayemi, but after months of speculations about his 2023 presidential ambition, the NGF chairman said that he would cross the bridge when he gets there.

Tinubu not a cabinet member hence shouldn’t frequent Aso Rock – Buhari

He was reported to have said that no serious politician would ignore the opportunity of becoming the president of Nigeria. He had earlier been endorsed by the Ekiti State House of Assembly for the number one job in the country.

Also, a member of the National Executive Council (NEC), Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Muhammad Alhaji Yakubu, advised Tinubu to remain faithful to playing godfather and king making roles in the nation’s politics, pointing out that the APC leader should not forget that he was the major brain behind the enthronement of President Buhari and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.

The south-east factor

Stakeholders in the Nigerian project, including the Leader of Afenifere, Pa Ayo Adebanjo, and the Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) leader, Chief Edwin Clark, among others, have expressed their opinion that the South-East should take the slot when it comes to the South.

Also, top Igbo leaders have sent a strong message to Nigerians supporting candidates from zones other than the South-East for president in 2023 that anyone who is supporting Tinubu, former President Goodluck Jonathan, and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar for president wants Nigeria to break up. They have called on the major political parties to zone their presidential tickets to the South-East.
The Osinbajo as alternative

As a second joker, there are beliefs in some quarters that if Tinubu’s attempt to clinch the party’s presidential ticket fails, he may settle for Prof. Osinbajo, who is still believed to be his close political ally.

Although the Vice President has stayed aloof from the fray, it is believed that he is secretly oiling his political machinery should the need arise. Propping up Osinbajo will make Tinubu remain the godfather of the president.

Option C.

If options one and two fail, he (Tinubu) has a leveraging team for whosoever will become president. He has cleverly positioned himself as the man to beat and under this circumstance in the APC, whoever wants to be president will have to go to Burdillon in Ikoyi, Lagos to have a serious chat with him.

The situation is such that the future of APC as a ruling party is dependent on how Tinubu is treated ahead of 2023 and his reaction to the treatment.