Gradually, politicians are emerging from the shadows, stepping into the arena to do what they know best—politicking. As the clock steadily ticks toward the 2027 elections, early maneuvering has begun. For those with discerning eyes, the alignments, power plays, and strategic alliances are already taking shape, setting the stage for what promises to be a high-stakes political contest.
While governance remains the official business of the day, the undercurrents of political repositioning are impossible to ignore. Old allies are becoming foes, familiar faces are rebranding, and opposition forces are sensing an opportunity to unseat the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). In a country where elections are often decided long before the first ballot is cast, every handshake, every closed-door meeting, and every public statement carries weight.
Take Thursday in Abuja, for instance. While members of the National Assembly were preparing to ratify President Bola Tinubu’s contentious declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State, the opposition was also mobilising. Led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, they convened a joint press conference to denounce the president’s decision as unconstitutional. Then came the moment of revelation—though not entirely unexpected: the opposition was coalescing to unseat Tinubu. What initially seemed like a routine pushback against executive overreach quickly evolved into a broader political statement—one that signaled the birth of an anti-Tinubu coalition ahead of 2027.
Days earlier, like the proverbial gong that sounds before the call to battle, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai had taken it upon himself to amplify the voices of the opposition. His sharp criticism of the APC-led administration had been growing louder, culminating in his eventual defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP)—a move that instantly made him a target of political attacks from the ruling party. While the APC has downplayed the significance of his departure, dismissing it as inconsequential, the unspoken reality is clear: El-Rufai’s exit is not just another defection; it is a calculated maneuver that could disrupt the APC’s northern stronghold. Some of his loyalists in Kaduna have also jumped ship, abandoning the APC for SDP.
For those familiar with the power intrigues that shaped the APC’s 2022 presidential primary, which ultimately produced Bola Tinubu as the party’s candidate, El-Rufai’s role was pivotal. Despite the silent reluctance of then-President Muhammadu Buhari, he championed the return of the presidency to the South. Now, having walked away from the APC, he once again positions himself as a wildcard—a lone voice in the wilderness when necessary.
El-Rufai’s departure raises critical questions: How deep is the discontent within the APC? Could more high-profile defections follow? Or will those unwilling to openly break ranks, like the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, stay within the party and work against it from within—just as Wike did to the PDP in 2023 with the infamous G-5 governors? And perhaps the biggest question of all: Will the opposition— plagued by fragmentation during the last general election—be able to consolidate these forces into a viable challenge against Tinubu?
Beyond the opposition’s maneuverings, even within the ruling party itself, there are murmurs of dissatisfaction. Tinubu, long regarded as a master strategist who spent years building a vast political empire, now faces the harsh reality that governance comes with its own complications. His recent declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State is a double-edged sword—one that demonstrates his willingness to assert authority but also sends an unsettling message to governors across the country, including those within his own party.
Can Tinubu and the APC withstand the weight of a coalition led by Atiku, Peter Obi, and other formidable politicians? Will Nigeria witness another 2015-style political upset, where a sitting president is unseated? Or will this new alliance crumble like a wisp of smoke, much like the ill-fated Presidential Aspirants Coming Together (PACT) arrangement of 2018, which saw the likes of Fela Durotoye, Omoyele Sowore, Oby Ezekwesili, Kingsley Moghalu, and Tope Fasua fail to unite behind a single candidate?
As 2027 approaches, one thing is certain: the gloves are slowly coming off. With new alliances forming and old ones fracturing, the next few months will be critical in shaping the political battlefield.
Across the country, politicians are switching parties with the ease of changing clothes, reinforcing the timeless adage that in politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies—only interests. In Lagos, former PDP governorship candidate in the 2023 election, Abdul-Azeez Adediran, popularly known as Jandor, has made a dramatic return to the APC. Similarly, in Anambra, former Labour Party governorship aspirant Valentine Ozigbo has also defected to the ruling party.
These moves are more than mere political migrations; they are strategic calculations, each one signaling shifting loyalties and recalibrated ambitions.
The chessboard is set, the pieces are moving, and in typical Nigerian fashion, the game has only just begun.
Akinleye Segun writes from Lagos and can be reached via email: mypenspeaks@gmail.com
