By Francis Ajuonuma, with agency report
The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that about 10.4 million people in West and Central Africa could fall into acute food insecurity if the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt global markets.
The warning, issued on March 17, 2026, was contained in a report published on the agency’s website, highlighting the far-reaching consequences of the crisis beyond the immediate war zone.
According to the WFP, as many as 45 million additional people globally could slip into acute food insecurity if the conflict persists and oil prices remain high. This would add to the 318 million people already struggling with hunger worldwide.
The agency explained that the conflict involving Iran and a coalition of Israel and the United States is already affecting global energy markets. This development could significantly raise food prices across many vulnerable regions.
“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest,” said Carl Skau, Deputy Executive Director of the WFP. “Without an adequately funded humanitarian response, it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge.”
The organisation warned that African countries dependent on imported food and fuel are particularly vulnerable to the economic ripple effects.
“Projections indicate an increase of 21 per cent in food-insecure people in West and Central Africa and 17 per cent in East and Southern Africa,” the report stated.
The WFP said its projections were based on modelling the impact of sustained oil prices of about $100 per barrel on global food systems. Analysts examined the number of people unable to afford a minimum energy-sufficient diet of 2,100 kilocalories per day, factoring in rising transport and food costs as well as countries’ reliance on imported food and energy.
The crisis stems from the war involving Iran and a combined force of Israel and the United States, which erupted on February 28 and has since disrupted global energy supply chains.
Key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, have been disrupted, driving up global oil prices and raising fuel costs in countries such as Nigeria.
In Nigeria, the warning comes as many households are already struggling with the economic impact of reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, including the removal of fuel subsidy in 2023, which significantly increased the cost of living.
A recent policy study by Agora Policy, supported by the Nigeria Economic Stability and Transformation Programme and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, found that Nigeria’s poverty headcount rose sharply from 49.8 per cent to about 63 per cent.
While the reforms have drawn criticism from opposition figures such as Peter Obi, who argued that “true economic reform must be people-centred and must protect the most vulnerable while pursuing fiscal sustainability,” international financial institutions have defended the measures as necessary for long-term stability.
For instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.2 per cent in 2026.
However, with the Middle East conflict continuing to rattle global energy and food markets, concerns remain about how vulnerable populations—especially in import-dependent economies like Nigeria—will cope with rising prices and worsening food insecurity in the months ahead.
