Opinions

2025: An agenda for our national security

By Rekpene Bassey

 

Nigeria’s security environment in 2025 is as diverse and complex as its cultural and ethnic fabric. While this diversity is a strength, it also presents significant challenges. Terrorism, banditry, cybercrime, kidnapping, and communal violence converge to create an intricate web of threats.

These issues demand not just reactive measures but a forward-looking, multifaceted strategy capable of addressing immediate crises and systemic vulnerabilities.

Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) continue to plague the North-East, leaving devastation in their wake. In 2024 alone, these groups were responsible for over 3,000 civilian deaths, making them among the most persistent threats to Nigeria’s stability.

Meanwhile, banditry in the North-West and North-Central regions has evolved into a national crisis, with over 2,500 lives lost and widespread kidnappings for ransom reported. Highways and rural areas have become flashpoints for abductions, further exacerbating public fear and insecurity.

In addition to physical threats, Nigeria faces a growing challenge in cyberspace. Ranked among the top five global hotspots for cybercrime, the country loses over $500 million annually to scams, identity theft, and other digital offences.

Cybercriminals operate with increasing sophistication, exploiting gaps in cybersecurity infrastructure to target individuals, businesses, and even government institutions.

Compounding these issues are ethnic and religious tensions, particularly in the Middle Belt, where communal clashes claimed 1,200 lives in 2024. These conflicts often stem from longstanding grievances over land, resources, and identity, creating a volatile environment that requires careful management and resolution.

Addressing these threats in 2025 demands a holistic approach, with intelligence at the core. Enhanced intelligence gathering and analysis can serve as the bedrock of Nigeria’s security architecture.

Investments in artificial intelligence (AI), predictive analytics, and satellite surveillance can revolutionize the country’s ability to detect, analyse, and respond to threats. Establishing a centralized National Threat Analysis Centre (NTAC) would streamline intelligence operations, enabling proactive rather than reactive responses.

Interagency collaboration must also be prioritized. The current lack of coordination among the military, police, and intelligence agencies hampers the effectiveness of security operations. A Unified Security Operations Platform (USOP) could facilitate real-time intelligence sharing and operational updates, fostering a culture of cooperation and accountability. This unified approach would ensure that resources are deployed efficiently and responses are swift.

Equally important is the role of local communities in fostering security. Community-centred frameworks, built on trust and collaboration, are vital for early warning systems and conflict prevention. Traditional leaders, religious institutions, and youth groups can partner in this effort, providing critical insights and mediating disputes before they escalate. Establishing Community Security Partnerships (CSPs) would formalise these collaborations, creating a bridge between national security strategies and local realities.

Cybersecurity, an often overlooked aspect of national security, requires urgent attention. Nigeria’s vulnerability in this domain poses risks not only to its economy but also to its national sovereignty.

Strengthening cybersecurity infrastructure through establishing digital forensic laboratories, nationwide awareness campaigns, and international collaborations is non-negotiable. A National Cybersecurity Task Force (NCTF) should lead efforts to monitor and neutralize cyber threats, ensuring that Nigeria remains resilient in the face of digital challenges.

Addressing the socioeconomic drivers of insecurity is equally critical. Poverty, unemployment, and lack of education create fertile ground for recruitment into criminal and extremist groups. Strategic investments in vocational training, public works programs, and educational reforms can provide alternatives to crime and violence, particularly for Nigeria’s youth, who are disproportionately affected by these issues.

Nigeria must scale up its security capacity to enhance operational effectiveness. Precision-based counterterrorism and anti-banditry operations, supported by specialized task forces, can help contain immediate threats. Community policing initiatives should also be expanded to improve local presence and rapid response capabilities.

Governance structures must align with these operational priorities to ensure success. The Office of the National Security Council (ONSA) should be expanded to oversee strategy formulation, implementation, and coordination across federal, state, and local levels. Regular progress reports, public briefings, and independent audits will promote transparency and accountability, building public trust in the security sector.

Funding remains a critical enabler of these initiatives. Allocating at least 15 percent of the national budget to security would provide the resources needed for personnel recruitment, equipment modernization, and infrastructure development. Recruiting and training 50,000 additional personnel across the military, police, and intelligence agencies would significantly bolster Nigeria’s security capacity.

Technology will play a pivotal role in shaping Nigeria’s security future. Investments in artificial intelligence for threat analysis, biometric databases for tracking suspects, and encrypted communication networks for secure coordination will empower security agencies to act precisely and efficiently. Such advancements can transform how Nigeria responds to traditional and emerging threats.

Monitoring and evaluation are essential for sustaining progress. A performance measurement framework should track key metrics such as incident reduction rates, operational efficiency, and community trust scores. Regular quarterly assessments will allow for accountability and adaptive strategies, ensuring that security initiatives remain relevant and effective in the face of evolving challenges.

Ultimately, Nigeria’s security agenda for 2025 should not just be a policy document but a roadmap to a safer and more stable nation. It should envision a country where security is not a privilege reserved for a few but a shared reality for all. Achieving this vision requires collective effort, sustained commitment, and strategic foresight.

As Nigeria moves forward, its security challenges must be met with resilience, innovation, and unity. The nation has the resources, talent, and determination to overcome these challenges and emerge stronger. With a clear agenda and a united front, a secure Nigeria is not just possible—it is inevitable.

 

*Rekpene Bassey is the president of the African Council on Narcotics (ACON) and a security and drug prevention expert.

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