By Seyi Odewale, with agency report
Following the passing of former President Muhammadu Buhari, the political arena has erupted into a fresh scramble for what many describe as his enduring electoral legacy, the famed ‘12 million votes.’
As parties reposition ahead of the 2027 elections, the North, once solidly behind Buhari, is now the epicentre of a fierce political tug-of-war.
In the years leading up to Buhari’s historic 2015 win, he consistently secured around 12 million votes in every election he contested, a testament to his unwavering support among northern grassroots voters.
That figure swelled to over 15 million in 2015 when he won the presidency under the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC), thanks to a nationwide alliance brokered by Bola Tinubu.
Buhari repeated the feat in 2019, reaffirming his northern dominance.
However, in 2023, despite Buhari’s nominal support, President Bola Tinubu managed just over eight million votes to win the presidency, while Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party’s Peter Obi polled over six million votes apiece.
With Buhari now gone, the question dominating northern and national politics is: who will inherit his once immovable political base?
*Tinubu vs Atiku: Clash of Northern strategies
President Tinubu, now seeking re-election in 2027, is keen to hold onto the northern base that played a decisive role in Buhari’s rise.
Yet, insiders say that with Buhari’s physical absence, the magic of his 12 million-vote appeal has become fluid, open to the highest political bidder.
On the other side of the aisle, Atiku has dramatically exited the PDP, blaming its leadership for stifling internal democracy.
He is now aligning with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which is rapidly transforming into a new opposition vehicle.
Sources close to Atiku say he aims to consolidate northern support by capitalising on growing disenchantment with both APC and PDP.
His strategy is bolstered by defections of notable political actors such as ex-Kaduna State governor Nasir el-Rufai, former Senate President David Mark, and even former APC chieftain Rauf Aregbesola, all of whom are reportedly aligning with the ADC.
*Buhari’s foot soldiers shift ground
What is causing ripples within APC ranks is the slow but visible shift of Buhari’s long-time loyalists, his so-called political foot soldiers, towards Atiku’s new coalition.
These are individuals who helped Buhari maintain his 12 million-vote base across multiple election cycles.
With his death, they are no longer morally or politically obligated to remain in the APC, especially if they believe Tinubu has not effectively carried forward Buhari’s legacy.
A senior APC strategist admitted, “Buhari’s endorsement meant everything in the North. Now that he’s gone, his supporters are looking for a new rallying point. We have to work harder to earn their trust.”
With Atiku’s looming defection, the ADC, once seen as a fringe party, is now a possible game-changer.
The opposition realignment under its platform is being carefully crafted to woo both Northern conservatives and Southern progressives.
“The ADC is not just a political vehicle,” said a source close to the realignment talks.
He continued, “It’s becoming a broad coalition aimed at breaking the old power blocs that have failed Nigerians. We are starting from the North because that’s where Buhari’s legacy is strongest — and also where voter fatigue with APC is growing.”
Despite the bubbling realignments, the Northern political establishment remains publicly quiet.
A prominent figure in the region was quoted as saying, “The North is observing. We will decide based on who truly protects our collective interests, not just with words, but with track records.”
That sentiment is echoed by many observers who believe the North is engaged in a strategic pause, waiting to see whether Tinubu can deliver on his promises to the region or whether Atiku’s new opposition coalition offers a more compelling vision.
*Obi watches closely
Though not directly part of the northern voting scramble, the former LP candidate, now hobnobbing with the ADC, Peter Obi, remains a key player.
With his over six million votes in 2023, much of it from youth and urban voters, Obi’s position could become critical in any future coalition.
Some observers believe his ability to influence swing states in the North-Central and parts of the North-East could tip the balance in 2027.
*Makinde: PDP Will Survive Atiku’s Exit
Amid this political reshuffling, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde has played down Atiku’s resignation from the PDP, insisting the party remains strong. “PDP is an institution,” he said. “People come and go. His exit will not cause a dent.”
Speaking at the 10th coronation anniversary of the Deji of Akure, Makinde also dismissed ADC’s emerging profile as a threat, calling it “just another party seeking relevance.”
