By Olusegun Olanrewaju
The year 2021 is gone and buried in the unforgiving books of history. Days have strolled into the New Year, 2022, and like all nations, Nigeria will be grappling with the realities of things done, half-done, not done, or is to be done to right-size nationhood. Like it has been aptly captured in some logic, “in some parts of this country, lies have no lifespan…”
Many things will be happening on all fronts, all glued together by the cobwebbing strands of politics. These include electioneering, economy, manufacturing, lending and borrowing, security, criminalities, medicine, and even on farther-flung fields like sports and entertainment.

Politics
A lot will be happening at this stage before the year ends. From the vantage point of the newsman’s crystal ball, there will no doubt be elections and lawsuits. Someone with more perspective has put it in the realm of ‘jostling for elective political offices’ which will peak with governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun states and the selection of the flag bearers for the registered political parties, including the domineering ones, All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and even All Progressives Congress (APC).

Pundits have observed that there will be heated political and economic campaigns, including the formation of alliances as to who succeeds hurricane Muhammadu Buhari, who has promised more venom with a stirring of the anti-graft war. In short, many heads will roll.

Succession
At the moment, several front-liners are angling to succeed President Buhari at Aso Rock. They include a former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, National Leader of APC, Bola Tinubu, Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, Kaduna’s howitzer helmsman, Nasir el-Rufai, and Bauchi’s tactical Bala Mohammed. The Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, is also believed to be nursing the ambition too.

Atiku and Tinubu have been in the ring since the build-up to the 2019 presidential race. Whoever will bag the kit, in the game of who gets what, when and how would rest on the more sagacious candidate, and who would escape the long arms of the anti-grafters. “and it seems that the body language of the president to his deputy, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo has improved,” an observer notes, adding, “the man has apparently been freed from the imposed cocoon, now more visible in state affairs.” But Osinbajo has a huge task in his ambition: slugging it out with the political machine of his godfather.

Barring all further roadblocks Atiku will be among the leading contenders in the PDP which had earlier vowed to keep its promise to rule the country for 60 years, with the election of Buhari in 2019. But this time, it appears the Turakin Adamawa will be facing a stiffer challenge from the Southeastern plank which forms a formidable force in the PDP ranks, and the extant political space of Nigeria.

There are sins lined up against him that could affect his chances. Minister of Employment and Productivity, Dr Chris Ngige, gave what seems the likely trajectory of the Igbo response to the PDP onslaught when it was accused of dropping the bad card in the continuous presentation of Atiku as its anointed presidential candidate.

Ngige has expressed strong support for the emergence of a Nigerian president of southern extraction in line with the rotation and zoning convention guiding the composition of government at various levels in the country. For starters, Ngige, a chieftain of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), has clamoured for zoning and rotation of power from the North to the South “to create stability, unity, equity and progress of the country.”

He said rotation engenders confidence and patriotism “and ensures that no one ethnic group or section of the country dominates the other. The former Anambra State governor described those saying no such convention exists as not telling the truth and berated the PDP “for hibernating and waiting for APC to choose a Southern presidential candidate, so they can pick theirs from the North, in clear breach of the rotation convention and even against the rotation principle enshrined in the PDP constitution.”

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Atiku has not helped matters with his political career ‘tainted’ with curious camping. “He kept jumping from one party to another ‘’, a source told ThisNigeria during the yuletide. He is, however, likely to be bailed out once again with flag bearers if his touted generosity and ‘philanthropy’ cut a bite with the party faithful.

Tinubu, on his part, has widely been credited with being instrumental to the emergence of Buhari as the candidate of APC, and later as president, in 2015 and 2019. “Atiku, who was Vice-President during the dispensation of Olusegun Obasanjo as President “For Tinubu, the story about town has been that he threw his lot with Buhari after extracting an understanding that Buhari and his supporters, who are mostly from the north of the country, would back his (Tinubu’s) presidential quest when the time comes. Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State (1999-2007), and his loyalists believe that the time is now, ahead of the 2023 elections.

“Over time, some people have argued that the label of a kingmaker on Tinubu concerning the attainment of the presidency by Buhari is exaggerated. But I am persuaded that Tinubu has a bonafide claim to that bragging right. Buhari had failed woefully, and rightly so in three previous attempts to become a democratically elected president of Nigeria. In those previous attempts in 2003, 2007, and 2011, Buhari’s appeal was severely limited to the core north.

“But for his membership of the Armed Forces, Buhari has never been associated with any pan-Nigerian association or movement or discourse or idea. And that speaks to the parochialism of the man and his constricted scope of friendship. And now that is writ large in Nigeria under him. So, yes, Tinubu made Buhari electable.

However, the feat could not have been achieved if the then ruling PDP had not been fractionalised. The then President Goodluck Jonathan had not been bungling and pandering and the northern remnants in the PDP had not been sabotaging their President and their party in aid of the opposition candidate who was their tribesman. “The events of 2015 and 2019, which threw up Buhari as Nigeria’s President and which have led us to this sorry pass as a country and as a people, are still unfolding. The latest of the unravelling is contained in the disputed and virtually discredited “My Participations,” the autobiography of Chief Bisi Akande, who was an interim chairman of the APC,” a report noted.

The long and short of it is that Nigerians are waiting for what has been signposted as the ‘consequential’ 2023 election. It is not yet known whether the political forces in the country will bow to the conventions in some other countries of the world in recent times to elect younger people into the topmost presidential jobs. And will the elections be fair? Arguments go back and forth but here we have again another evidence of the president being welcomed to Maiduguri, hitherto the prime theatre of insurgence and insecurity, with a Molotov cocktail of bombs ahead of a state visit recently.

And who eventually wins in the Anambra governorship election: Soludo or the traducers? By and large, President Buhari has refused to show preference on who his likely successor is going to be, and this has added colour to the waiting game.

Influence of ‘power blocs’
It is believed that the emergence of power blocs preparatory to the 2023 presidential race could throw parties into crisis, especially as relates to who succeeds President Buhari. That was the position of Progressive Governors’ Forum (PGF), whose Director-General (DG), Alhaji Salihu Lukman, noted the absence of competition in the country’s democracy has been responsible for many “unpredictable political circumstances resulting in insecure political leaders”.

According to him, “Nigerian politics is a game of conquest. Apart from the personality of President Muhammadu Buhari, no leader could be sure of emerging as a candidate of the party for any election. “The fact that President Buhari is serving his last term requires some strategic succession arrangement within the APC, especially to guarantee the retention of all the electoral advantages.”

Lukman said with the president “clearly out of the race for the position of the presidential candidate of APC in 2023”, there is a potential for a big internal contest in the APC. He said the question was whether any of the power blocs within the party would take steps to block internal contests “and therefore emerge as the conqueror”. The DG added that the issue would be whether the APC leadership would allow the process of democratisation to ensure that leadership emergence both within the party and at wider political levels was determined based on the choices of party members and citizens.

Lukman said most of the public speculation around internal dynamics in APC today was informed by some strategic political expectations and leadership permutations. “Unfortunately, a lot of these permutations seemed to be oriented based on an approach that sought to strengthen the capacity of some leaders within APC to conquer the structures of the party, when its members and leaders demanded that issues of membership register of the party were resolved,” he said.

Dark horses?
Former Minister of Special Duties and Inter-Governmental Affairs, during the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan, Tanimu Turaki, believes that “anybody who succeeds Buhari is going to start from the scratch”.

Turaki, a member Board of Trustees (BoT) of the PDP, amplifies the mindset of those in the opposition class who believe that Nigeria needs a new crop of leadership based on perceived non-performance of the ruling APC government in power. “I tell you that the quality of representation and governance from 1999 has been increasing in each election. So, people initially were not convinced that the military was sincere when they decided to hand it over in 1999. For me, I think it is remarkable, awesome, heart-warming, and astonishing. The only thing is that all Nigerians need to work hard to ensure that this democracy, where a lot of people make sacrifices, is not taken lightly.”
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Insurgency and terrorism
Perhaps at no better stage did the Buhari administration come under greater challenge than on the plane of insecurity. This much has been acknowledged by official sources, including the government spokesman, Lai Mohammed. Sectarian terrorists launched deadly mortar attacks on the airport where the President was scheduled to land in Maiduguri.

Daily, there are reports of insurgents, bandits, kidnappers who are feasting on victims, while the security agencies have been announcing successes. But will the trend continue in 2022? For six years the Buhari administration wrestled with insecurity, but on a lesser scale than in the President Goodluck Jonathan era when Boko Haram held grounds on local governments in the North-East.

It is obvious that with terrorists yet to be routed insecurity, is a trend that analysts argue may not abate in 2022. But your take on her could be dicey. Ahead of the general election in 2019, the governor of Yobe State could not vote despite the horde of security guards around him. But the state returned a high scale voter turnout in the same polls later.

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The Covid-19/Omicron war
Since man and virus have signed a no-victor-no-vanquished line, COVID-19 Delta, Omicron variants, or another emergent virus will continue to battle with relevance for space. The raging pandemic war of the Coronavirus has mutated into another equally dangerous battle with a variant, Omicron. Experts say that, with the rising challenge of rising cases of infection, the battle to contain the virus will be a major battle for the authorities in 2022, a strong political year.

A media report by the American medium, MSN paints the picture clearer: “In 2022, the leadership of major states in every inhabited continent will be contested in the thick of global crises. The Covid-19 pandemic and a climate change catastrophe that grows more evident each week.” Already, England has compelled schoolchildren to be compulsorily wearing masks to contain Omicron surge. Nigeria.

Like many countries are keying in into community containment programmes, rather than outright economic shutdowns. Even South Africa, one of the countries where the new variant Omicron virus was said to have reared its head, has since backed down on hard policies. In 2021, Buhari broke a deadlock. He signed the climate change bill. That will go a long way in revolutionising environmental laws in Nigeria that will battle forestation, erosion, among others.

The economy
Nigerians pray against the resurgence of recession and growing debts, which had, by December 2020) grown to $33.35 billion. The Debt Management Office (DMO) has also reported that the nation is currently indebted to several multilateral institutions, including the World Bank and other financial institutions in Africa, Europe, and Asia. They are also wary of the antics of the Naira, which has been on a free fall against the international currencies for years.

More agitations are expected from the communities in oil-producing states in the Niger Delta, despite President Buhari had in August 2021 signed the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) into law. The bill is expected to facilitate Nigeria’s economic development by attracting and creating investment opportunities for local and international investors.

The war on Value Added Tax (VAT)
Over 60 per cent of Nigeria’s 200 million population are living below the poverty line. “It doesn’t need a soothsayer to predict that the nation’s economic quagmire will be a major talking point and a burning spot in 2022,” an analyst noted.

On food security, experts say there is the need to grow markets for agriculture, to increase what they called ‘greater participation’ to raise farmers’ incomes. The masses are looking forward to genuine social security payments, as opposed to ‘authoritarian populism’. Manufacturers walk into the New Year on a note of optimism that the three principal drives needed to turn their tide of fate rest on three planks: Increased credit access, improved infrastructure, and increased patronage.

The judiciary
Invasion of the hallowed chambers of the judiciary are common, but the turning point was the raid on the Abuja residence of Mary Odili, a Justice of the Supreme Court of Nigeria. Earlier, there had been invasions on the residences of other justices of the apex court, in instances that have been interpreted to be undermining the independence of the judiciary. It is expected that the government will take interest in undertaking measures that will restore the confidence of Nigerians that the judiciary is still the last hope of the common man. Nigerians, as they march on in 2022 are searching for a pragmatic leader with liberal credentials, including press freedom and judicial independence, and who will introduce “a raft of socially restructuring measures.

The secessionists Kanu/Igboho
As usual, the battle for the freedom of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) leader, Nnamdi Kanu, and Yoruba Nation agitator, Sunday Adeyemo ‘Igboho’ will be fiercer. Whether they will ultimately bag their freedom is only a matter of time, watchers say. The nation desires a presidential material that can deliver on security, economic welfare, and general welfare.

Twitter ban
The June 4, 2021 ban on social media handle, Twitter, by the Federal Government subsists. The suspension came after the microblogging site reportedly deleted tweets from President Buhari’s account. The president had tweeted that the country would treat the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in the “language they understand”. Information minister, Lai Mohammed, condemned the deletion of the president’s post, accusing Twitter of “double standard”. But wary Nigerians are hoping that the economy would benefit further from the over N500 billion allegedly lost to the shutdown, and another N104.02 million ($250,600) said to be lost daily by the ban, according to an estimate by a data-driven online service.

The Electoral Act bill
Nigerians are waiting with bated breath for what is considered another very controversial issue on the political front – the vetoing/signing of the amended Electoral Act Bill passed by the National Assembly in December 2021. The refusal of the president to assent to the bill over some alleged ‘grey areas’ is likely to be a ding-dong affair and a triangular war among the Executive and the National Assembly, especially on the issue of direct primaries, electronic transmission of election results, among others.

Protests
Welcome to 2022. Another wave of protests loom, starting with ‘Occupy Nigeria’, demand for reforms, which go beyond the EndSARS saga, is in the corner. Also, at the political level, politics in the country is being manifestly split by tribal divisions and not political ideologies that are frequently tarnished by ethnic violence (Farmer-herder clashes, among others).
Protests are a right, but Nigerians are now better placed themselves of the national embarrassment of 2020/2021 EndSARS conundrum to which charges of genocide were inflamed even to the extent of calling for International Court of Justice attention, all without adequate proof.

Other foreign interests
Nigeria is joining many countries waiting to hold different types and stages of the election this year. The list is long: France (April), Hungary, Australia, Albania, Turkey, Philippines, Columbia, India, South Korea, et cetera. The US will be holding congressional elections for the House of Representatives and to elect one-third of senators.

A professor of History and Development Studies at the University of Ibadan, Prof. Tayo Adesina, wants Nigeria to pursue a more pragmatic, impactful foreign policy this year and always. He says: “What is important in all cases, is the capacity of Nigeria to impact on…foreign policy. Most unfortunately, however, Nigeria’s foreign policy is unnecessarily too reactive. It lacks focus and lustre. It is not programmatic.”

Also, a former Director-General (DG), Nigeria Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Prof. Bola Akinterinwa, seeks multidimensional foreign policy. His words: “The technique of diplomacy, or tactical diplomacy, has the potential to change. Expected changes cannot be constructively addressed for reasons of conjectural limitations.”