A security expert and a former Director in the Department of State Services (DSS), Mr Mike Ejiofor, Esq, is of the view that there may be violence, before, during, and after the 2023 general elections. In this interview African Independent Television (AIT), breakfast show ‘Kakaaki, monitored by Linus Aleke, says the utterances of politicians are worse than the activities of terrorists

There was a recent security alert by foreign countries on Abuja, are you worried?

Who would not be worried? It is normal, but worries would not solve the problem. We worry and also, get assurances that the situation is under control. The advisory issued by the US government in Nigeria was made for its citizens. From the last development, they are even asking some of their non-essential services staff to leave Nigeria. I don’t think that is the best way to handle it, because there is always coordination between the security agencies, especially the State Security Service, (now DSS), and the United States government. I didn’t expect the US government to escalate the advisory instead of downplaying it. Through the handling, it went to the public, it was not made for the public and that is causing now a lot of fear and panic. But the assurances have also come from the State Security Service, asking people to be vigilant which, is the normal thing. The SSS DSS) cannot dismiss the advisory because there is always a collaboration and synergy between the various intelligence services. Before the advisory, if you noticed, in the past week, the police had mounted roadblocks checkpoints and patrols to that effect, and that shows that information was there. I cannot confirm whether there was an exchange of intelligence between the US Embassy and the State Security Service and other security agencies like the Nigerian Intelligence Agency (NIA). But the total of it is that we have been assured that there is no need to worry. Our people must be vigilant, we are going through hard times. If you recall, when the heat was turned on, on the Boko Haram in the Northeast, they relocated to the North-West in the name of banditry and what we have is kidnapping people and causing havoc, especially in Zamfara and the environs. After the kidnap incident on the Abuja-Kaduna bound train, you noticed that after the president’s directive, that they should go ruthless on these criminals, a maximum effort was deployed and the effects were seen by all. And the next thing was for them to relocate again, not only to Abuja and its environs but to other states down south. We are aware that there have been activities of these criminals towards the southwest and North Central. Don’t also forget that the SSS earlier issued such a warning, that there are cells on the outskirts of Abuja, which of course led to the incident of the killing of the Brigade of Guard officer and soldiers. Having said all this, the most important thing is that we must be vigilant, not only be vigilant, we need to study our environment and know the movement there. I am not as worried over this threat of terrorists as the activities of our politicians. The utterances of our politicians, why I said this is that there is always a trend towards election and campaign. Recall that the ban on political activities has just been lifted and people are campaigning. My worry is the utterances of politicians. All this divisive and abusive language, even though they have signed an undertaking or peace path as they called it between the political leaders. The problem sometimes does not emanate from the political leaders but their followers. I think, there is a need for political leaders to caution their followers because if they don’t do this, the incisive and divisive talks can trigger violence.

If there is coordination between the US government and the various intelligence services, why then did the Federal Government dismiss the advisory the way it did, by saying that the foreign embassies cannot stampede Nigeria into anything because of terror alert, is this posture of government not enough for the embassy of evacuating their citizens as their security may not be guaranteed?

You see, that was the point I was trying to make, the utterances of politicians. The minister who dismissed it, is he a security agent? What information does he have? In intelligence service operations, no matter how irrelevant or small information is, it cannot be swept under the carpet. So, the minister is not in a position to begin to make such statement because the police are there, the police have admitted that we have challenges, the SSS has admitted that we have challenges and they are controlling the situation. It is contradictory for a government functionary to come and dismiss such an advisory, it is not right. As I said, if government dismisses it on the pretences that there is nothing, the people will relax. What we are asking or what should be done is that people should be made to be on alert, like it is said, the price for liberty is eternal vigilance. We have to be vigilant, we are passing through hard times, and it is easier for us to even check the security agencies to check the activities of terrorists. But the unpredictable actions of politicians are now worrisome.

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Don’t you think making the terror alert public was very necessary, bearing in mind the story that there were 44 intelligence reports on the Kuje jailbreak which, the security agencies never acted on?

Yes, but you see, to provide intelligence is a different kettle of fish, to act on it is another one. If we provide intelligence that these things are going to happen, the action agencies don’t have the capacity or capabilities to deal with such situations. How then do we take that intelligence? I will give you an example of the Kuje Correctional Centre break, not until the incident and the investigation that we discovered that there were no cameras in that place. The cameras will not stop people from doing what they are supposed to do. But at least, it will help in the investigation process to identify some of the people who were coming in. They came-in in on bikes, but before the correctional facility, we have this army checkpoint there, but how many of them are there? And when these people move they move in doves. So, if you provide intelligence without the actionable agencies having the capacity to deal with it, it is as useless as not providing intelligence.

Can we then say that the action agencies cannot deal with such terror attacks?

No, that is not what I meant. It is not that we don’t have the capacity now, but we can do more. The action agencies can do more and the government needs to bring in more funds. You see, security is very important, without security, there is nothing we can do, and investors cannot come into the country. It is not only the security sub-sector that there is a general decay. In the economy, politics, and others, there is corruption. But people are worried because, if we don’t have security, we cannot move out and the primary purpose of government is the security and welfare of the people. Don’t also forget, as I said, the advisory talked about schools, crowds, churches, etc. So, what do we do under such circumstances? One worry again that I have is this issue of the queues at the petrol stations. Any senseless person can just attack such a queue. The government should do everything possible to reduce this tension of fuel scarcity because it can go crazy. The terrorists may just go and set cars ablaze in the queue. We cannot stop people from buying fuel, for churches, mosques, and schools, need to strengthen their security measures. Scanners, circuit cameras, and access control, when they do all these would be able to frustrate these people from coming. At night, people who leave in estates should have neighbourhood security outfits, who they meet with to discuss the security challenges in their place. So, this is a time we should all come together, we don’t sit down and begin to say that security agencies must do everything, it is not possible.

This is not the first time this kind of information is getting to the public even before the security agencies intercept it, is there no official communication between the intelligence services and these foreign nations that issue travelling advisories to their citizens from time to time?

I know that there is a liaison between the Nigerian government and the embassies and the security agencies, especially the intelligence services, there is always a liaison. Don’t also be surprised that the information may have emanated from the security services in Nigeria to the US Embassy, it is not impossible. But the fact I am making now is that these are projections, they are not cast on stones. If we follow trend analysis towards elections, there are always hyper activities in terms of security challenges. We also, recall that in 2015, there was this prediction from a group of students in the United States that doing research. The outcome of their research then predicted that Nigeria will not survive the 2015 election and that the country will break up. Has that happened? These are projections and trends, we follow the trends and we would be able to make an analysis and a forecast. Sometimes they are perfect, and sometimes they are not, so that is what intelligence is all about. The fact remains that I am not happy personally, with the way this advisory is been handled by the US Embassy. It portrays us in a bad light in diplomatic circles, it is not good for our image. The advisory had been issued, we don’t know the kind of information they have that they are evacuating no essential service staff. I think that there should be an understanding, a dialogue between the US government and the Nigerian government.

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Nigeria rarely does this kind of thing in foreign nations even when natural disasters that have the propensity for genocide occur, what level of respect does Nigeria command in the international arena?

The problem is that the US government does not treat its citizens the way we do here in Africa. They are concerned about one citizen but here we are losing lives and nobody is talking about it, we lose lives to flood, we lose lives to terrorists and nobody is talking about it. At its worse, we see the government issuing statement of condolences but in America, it is not done that way. Recall that an American citizen was kidnapped in Niger and brought to Nigeria, they know how much they deployed in terms of security to free that hostage, killing the bandits, that was why I advocated that there is a need for us to collaborate more now, like the US, we need to have a dialogue between the Nigerian government and the US government. We need to have an exchange in terms of training, in terms of funding, that is what I expect the US government to be doing right now, instead of creating fear and panic amongst the populace.

What is your opinion as a security expert triggered this latest terror alert when Nigerians are beginning to relax following the gains by the military against the criminals lately?

Whatever might be the trigger on their part, I think, I am not saying for sure, but I think it is political. If you look at the situation, just like you rightly pointed out, the incidence is going down, we are getting results, the military is on the onslaught, the intelligence services are providing the necessary information or intelligence for them to act on and there is the drastic reduction of incidence, say for this flood victims, we are not hearing of so much kidnap, although there might be minor kidnap that is not reported. But when it involves the VIPs, we get to know of that. But generally, we had made a lot of progress, in terms of the reduction of terrorist activities. We wake up every morning and we don’t hear that there was a mass abduction anywhere in Nigeria. The military and other security agencies are working and we should encourage them, we should support our military, and we should support our intelligence services by giving information that is the only way out of it. If we say it does not concern us, one day it will concern everybody. If the roof crashes, it will crash on all of us, so we need to support our military to achieve the security we are looking for because without security we cannot go anywhere.

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Nigeria is the second most terrorised country in the world according to the latest report, and this discouraged foreign direct investment and affected citizens’ perception of the military, don’t you think these issues should shape the conversation?

You know that this estimate and analysis are done annually, I am sure that when they do the next one, Nigeria is not going to be the second most terrorised after Iran but it takes time for them to do this analysis. I am sure that by the next ranking, go and mark it, Nigeria is going to improve in the next forecast. Because it is obvious that we have achieved a lot of success within the last three months.

What proactive steps should government and other critical stakeholders take to ensure that the election holds as scheduled, bearing in mind this latest terror alert from a foreign government?

Like I said when we started, I am not as worried about the terrorists’ activities as I am worried about the activities of our politicians. So, my advice, apart from being alert and offering intelligence and information to the security agents, the government should as a matter of urgency forget about the peace accord by the committee on the electoral process. Let the government call all the political leaders, especially, the presidential candidates to sign an undertaking, although it is almost impossible to control your followers because some of them just issue statements, there is a need at the various ward level, local government, state and federal for them to have regular meetings to control their followers. But the social media space is another problem, you cannot control anybody there because people who belong to various political parties also do their campaigns on social media. I am also, worried that some of the leaders make inciting statements, even on air, it is worrisome. Another area we should go to is to check the activities of INEC. But so, far they have been doing so well, we need a credible election, there are statements whether founded or unfounded of people going to court to stop the use of BVAS, These are diversionary and they don’t represent the interest of the people. We need credible leaders, no matter who is coming, we are going to elect the Nigerian president, we are not going to elect an APC president or PDP president, or Labour Party president- it is a Nigerian president. At the end of the day, my fear again is that there might be post-election violence if the result doesn’t go the way some people want and also during the election. Because INEC so far has tried to put a lot of things in place to stabilise the polity, like not using your phone to snap who you voted for if you go into the cubicle to vote and that must be sustained. We are planning on how to make Nigeria better, and the politicians are planning to adopt measures to undermine it. The issue of vote buying is a major problem, my advice is, anybody who wants to serve you does not need to buy you, if you are given N10, 000 now, will that sustain you for four years, you can collect the money, and vote your conscience. Or if you don’t want to collect the money, report to the nearest police station that this person has offered you money. I talk more about politicians because, I foresee challenges coming, violence before, during the campaigns, and post-election. We need to regulate and call ourselves to order, it is very important.

How would citizens feel safe relating things that are confidential to authorities?

I see the SSS putting up an advert with numbers, the police has its dedicated lines. I would rather suggest they go out with short codes because people can hardly memorize the numbers, so, if we get a number like 199 or 217, I suggest that the security agencies should embark on this short code, especially now that it is very critical for citizens to participate and give inform.