By Mudiaga Affe
As battle for the 2023 elections intensifies, there are strong indications that the ruling All Progressives Congress and the main opposition, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), are set to implode as feuding contenders dig deeper.

While both parties are making frantic efforts to settle the rifts currently tearing them apart, political watchers and pundits are of the view that a third force is imminent in the polity.

Aggrieved members of the PDP are seeking the removal of the National Chairman of the party, Uche Secondus, over alleged incompetence and corruption, among other sins, while the crisis rocking the APC took another turn recently following a minority judgement of the Supreme Court on the 2020 Ondo governorship election.

A minority ruling of the apex court had queried the APC caretaker committee arrangement of allowing a sitting governor to as well hold an executive post in a party. The Governor of Yobe State, Mai Mala Buni, has been in the saddle of leadership of the party as the caretaker committee chairperson since the ouster of the APC National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, last year.

Hitherto, the APC had been battling with crises arising from its membership registration exercise as well as primaries ahead of the polls in the next dispensation.

Besides, the controversy over the 2023 presidential election and where the pendulum should swing to — North versus South — had taken the centre stage, thus further polarising the party.

A political scientist, Prof. Femi Otubanjo, and a former provost marshal of the Nigerian Army, Brig.-Gen Idada Ikponmwen, among other analysts, while appraising the developments came to damning conclusions that the two ruling political parties lacked internal democracy.

Beyond that, they argued that a third force in the name of a new political party has become imminent in the polity.

The APC debacle
Towards the middle of 2020, the APC was faced with a critical leadership crisis that forced its former chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, out and led to the National Executive Council (NEC) setting up an interim caretaker committee headed by the Yobe State Governor, Mai Mala Buni.
The Buni-led caretaker committee which was originally meant to pilot the affairs of the party for six months has had its tenure extended a couple of times due to internal crises rocking it across the board.

However, the conflict in the party took a twist after a minority judgement of the Supreme Court following the Ondo 2020 Governorship Election held that the APC interim caretaker committee arrangement violated the Nigerian constitution.

Specifically, the minority judgement said it was wrong for Buni to hold two executive positions- the APC Caretaker Chairman and Governor of Yobe State, at the same time.

The pronouncement by the apex court immediately prompted diverse reactions within the APC, resulting in the heightened tension in the ruling party.

However, while some members of the ruling party including the Minister of State for Labour and Productivity, Festus Keyamo (SAN), called for the dissolution of the caretaker committee, others such as Prof. Tahir Mamman, (SAN), said the caretaker committee matter did not violate the constitution.

As if to further aggravate the tension, the President, who is on medical vacation in the United Kingdom, ThisNigeria gathered, had directed his deputy, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, to handle the legal concerns of the development, but the Vice-President made his position known by saying the caretaker committee arrangement was illegal.

It was learnt that after meeting with some top lawyers in the Buhari-led administration cabinet, Osinbajo also advised that the party’s recent ward congresses should not be held, but the Buni-led caretaker committee went ahead with the exercise, thus opening another window of crisis.

Apart from the congresses, the issue of two other governors, Gboyega Oyetola (Osun) and Abubakar Bello (Niger), who are also serving in the caretaker committee, was raised. They equally were advised to vacate their positions in the committee.

ThisNigeria gathered that most lawyers in the Buhari’s cabinet reasoned along the line of the vice-president, except the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, who thought otherwise.

It was learnt that Malami had argued that the contrary claims were speculative and unsubstantiated, urging the party not to entertain any fear.

However, for the PDP, despite a series of meetings by party chieftains, as well as the interventions by the David Mark and Bukola Saraki-led committees, pundits believe that these negotiations, may not after all, heal the wounds in the party.

In tune with subtle battle for which zone should take the presidential slot, some believe that if Secondus remains as the party chair, the implication is that a southerner would not be its standard bearer in 2023.

In fact, an authoritative source told ThisNigeria, “The permutation is that you cannot have a chairman and a presidential candidate from the same region. The contending forces are battling to have control ahead of the struggle for 2023.”

Recall also that the crisis in the party hierarchy prompted the resignation of some of its principal officers last week, even though many of them later withdrew their letters of resignation.

Those who resigned are the Deputy National Financial Secretary, Gerald Irona; Deputy National Organising Secretary, Hassan Yakubu; Deputy National Legal Adviser, Ahmed Liman, and Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Diran Odeyemi.
Others were the Deputy National Woman Leader, Hadizat Umoru; Deputy National Auditor, Divine Arong, and another official.

Both parties lack internal democracy
Otubanjo, an emeritus professor of Political Science, said the two major political parties lacked internal democracy.

The academic, who spoke with our correspondent said, the conflicts in both parties had their link to the 2023 general elections.

He said, “Two critical factors are responsible for the crises in the two major political parties, which we could also find as cause of the conflicts in the smaller political parties. The first factor is succession. The 2023 succession is a major element and it is always the cause of fights in parties.

“Ahead of 2023, different factions are already jostling for positions of opportunity and inevitably they are bound to have conflicts. The second factor is the lack of internal party democracy, which has been the Achilles’ heels of political parties in the country. Despite their pretences, they are not democratic parties.

“Take the APC, for instance. The appointment of Buni by the President as interim chairman was undemocratic. The President has no authority constitutionally in any party to be the one appointing a party leader.

“In the PDP, the chairman comes first before the President. The President is a product of the party and not the owner of the party.

“So, they (APC) have subverted the constitutional order of the party by subjecting themselves to the dictates of the President who has no authority to appoint anybody but can only indicate his interest. If the President indicates his interest in the election of somebody, the party machinery will manoeuvre to get to that person on board. The APC has not developed the party culture of internal democracy.

“The internal crises are a struggle of which zone will produce the next President. Some groups are circling different individuals in the APC and they will fight until the presidential candidate emerges.

“The same problem is with the PDP, although the party is more grounded constitutionally, it has a more developed political culture than the APC. But there are individuals within the PDP who are also jostling for the presidential slot. Atiku Abubakar wants to be President, some governors are also jostling for something but it is not clear yet.

“Gov Wike had been the major sponsor of the party for some time, so, if his group allegedly has issues with the Chairman (Uche Secondus), who is his benefactor, then you have a crisis in your hand. The PDP crisis may well be about the presidential slot for 2023 among several contending issues.”

Otubanjo urged both parties to revert to their constitutions, warning, however, that the position of the APC was unconstitutional.
“What should happen is that the constitution of the PDP should be allowed to operate by the parties concerned.

“For the APC, do not expect that things will get better. Buni is an illegitimate occupant of the position and they have not been able to get rid of him automatically because they are expecting the President to make a pronouncement. That is not a political party- it is a regiment being controlled by a commander. So, unless we have internal democracy we are going to keep having this problem.

‘We should look towards a new party’

A former provost marshal of the Nigerian Army Corps of Military Police, Lagos, Brig.-Gen. Idada Ikponmwen (retd.), said with the developments in the two ruling political parties, Nigerians should look towards the direction of a new political party.

He said, “What is happening to both parties was expected. Anybody who has been watching developments in Nigeria would honestly not be at a loss. The PDP ruled this country for 15 years and before they left they said they were going to rule for 60 years or so. At the end of it, everyone thanked God that they left and another party came on board.

“As far as I am concerned, I am almost losing hope. I am not confident in the ability of any of these two political parties to manage the affair of this country.

“This country must look for a new party, not PDP or APC to carry on with the affairs of the nation. With renewed determination, I believe well-meaning people must be thinking in that direction. Let us face it, the PDP and the APC are virtually the same. It is the same people that are moving here and there. There is no ideological thread that is binding the people in each of these parties.

“People move from one party to the other based on how it suits them and how they think they can achieve their personal goals- that is the attitude of the Nigerian politician who are completely selfish. The politicians have failed Nigerians and I see grave danger ahead for the next election unless we have a new group with new commitments.

“Now, who are these people? No miracle can happen overnight but let Nigerians decide that we could do away with those who have been causing our problems. Nigerians must look at people from the point of view of integrity, consistency. This game of money politics must go.

PDP Reps caucus calls for resignation of Secondus

“In Nigeria, it is now true that good people do not win elections, you must have stolen enough money to contest elections, but it should not be so. It is shameful and pathetic that this is what we have 61 years after independence.”