By Cajetan Mmuta, Ben Adoga, Anthony Otaru, and David Lawani
Nigeria stands on the precipice of yet another humanitarian catastrophe as the nation’s biggest hydroelectric dams, Kainji, Jebba, Shiroro, and Zungeru, are set to discharge excess water to prevent structural failure.
But as millions of residents across the River Niger and Benue basins brace for impact, a more profound crisis looms, one fuelled not just by rising waters, but by years of poor planning, weak governance, and environmental neglect.
From Kogi and Benue through Anambra, Delta, Bayelsa, Niger, and Kwara States, communities already soaked by torrential rains are anxiously watching the rivers swell.
Memories of the 2022 floods, which claimed hundreds of lives and displaced more than 1.4 million people, are still painfully fresh. Two years on, with the same warnings repeating, many Nigerians are asking the same haunting question:
*‘We’re waiting for water, and help that never comes’
At an Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp in Lokoja, 55-year-old Ibrahim Usman sits under a sagging tarpaulin, holding his grandson as thunder rumbles in the distance.
“I lost my home, my nets, everything,” he said. “We lived here on mats for six months with little food or medicine. Now they say the water is coming again — but where do we run to this time?”
In Patigi, Kwara State, Aisha Mohammed, a widow with three children, fears a repeat of that nightmare.
“Each rainy season, we pray and pack our bags in case the water reaches us. We can’t farm or trade. The government only remembers us when it’s too late,” she said.
Further south in Ogbaru, Anambra State, villagers are already stranded as floodwaters creep through homes and markets.
“Fifteen of our sixteen communities are submerged again,” a resident of Ossomala said. “No one has come. Maybe they will — but by then it might be too late.”
For thousands of families like these, the floods are not just an act of nature; they are the cruel symbol of government failure — predictable, deadly, and largely preventable.
*Sub-nationals are sleeping, not planning, say experts
Disaster management experts say Nigeria’s flood crises persist because state governments have refused to act decisively despite repeated warnings.
Former Director of Search and Rescue at NEMA, Air Commodore E.K. Adedokun (retd), described the situation as “a failure of governance.”
“Flooding has become a seasonal ritual in Nigeria. Only a few states have permanent camps or relocation plans. Warnings to ‘move to higher ground’ mean nothing when there’s nowhere safe to go,” he said.
He recalled that a Dangote-led presidential initiative once provided functional shelters in Jigawa and Kebbi States, but most states ignored similar directives.
“In Birnin Kebbi, people comply because there are real camps. But in Kogi, Bayelsa, or Anambra, people stay and drown because there’s simply no place to go,” he said.
Adedokun warned that the flooding would worsen the country’s already fragile food security.
“When farmlands, crops, and livestock are washed away, hunger follows. Add that to inflation and insecurity, and it becomes a national emergency,” he said.
He also decried the misuse of ecological funds.
“Billions are released every year, but you can’t trace the impact. When floods come, governors rush to Abuja for help — it’s negligence, not nature, that’s killing people,” he lamented.
Environmental experts say prevention, not reaction, should guide Nigeria’s flood response.
Prof. Omo-Ogun Ajayi of the University of Calabar called for aggressive environmental reform.
“We must adopt afforestation, strengthen floodplain management, and build robust early-warning systems. People need time to move, not last-minute panic alerts,” he said.
Water resource analyst Dr Nelson Odume added that data and forecasting must drive decision-making.
“We need more gauging stations, reliable hydrological models, and real-time data collection. You can’t manage what you don’t measure,” he warned.
Disaster risk expert Dr Olasunkami Okunola advocated for an integrated national response.
“Urban planners, environmental agencies, and local governments must work together. Fragmented actions will only deepen the crisis,” he said.
Experts have also raised concerns about Cameroon’s Lagdo Dam, whose potential release could exacerbate flooding in Nigeria’s Benue Basin.
“Without regional coordination, we may face another Lagdo-triggered disaster,” Ajayi cautioned.
Beyond the humanitarian toll, analysts warn that the floods could become a significant political issue ahead of the 2027 elections.
Political scientist Dr Chris Akindele said leadership would be judged by how governments respond now.
“Floods are political tests disguised as natural disasters. Nigerians remember who showed up when their homes were underwater — and who didn’t,” he said.
Civil society advocate Aisha Abdullahi, of the Centre for Climate Justice, was blunter.
“Nigerians are drowning not just in water, but in corruption. Ecological funds disappear while communities die in silence,” she said.
Already, markets in Kogi, Benue, and Delta are recording spikes in the prices of yam, rice, and cassava tubers as farmers abandon submerged fields. Public health experts also warn of cholera outbreaks in overcrowded IDP camps where sanitation is poor and medical supplies are scarce.
Every rainy season, Nigeria’s flood crisis plays out like a tragic national ritual — predictable, deadly, and preventable. Experts have long argued that floods expose more than environmental weakness; they lay bare the cracks in governance, accountability, and political will.
As waters rise again and millions brace for another round of displacement, hunger, and disease, 55-year-old Ibrahim Usman’s question from Lokoja lingers:
“The water will come again. But will anyone protect us this time?”
However, Bartholomew Okoudo, President of the Conference of Non-Governmental Organisations (CONGOS), has urged immediate relocation from flood-prone areas to higher ground and designated shelters.
He advised that local volunteers, ward heads, and LGA officials coordinate self-evacuation, while town criers, churches, and mosques spread flood alerts.
Okoudo warned that limited transportation, inadequate shelters, and weak early warning systems could exacerbate the crisis. He projected mass displacement, crop and livestock losses, and spikes in food prices and water-borne diseases.
“Floods will destroy farms, cut off roads, and contaminate water sources. Cholera, malaria, and diarrhoea outbreaks are likely if urgent steps aren’t taken,” he said.
*We won’t allow experience to repeat itself, says Anambra govt
But in Awka, the Anambra State Government says it is not taking chances.
The state Commissioner for Environment, Felix Odimegwu, insists that the state has learned from past experiences.
“There is no cause for alarm. We have a standing Flood Management Committee chaired by the Deputy Governor, Dr Onyekachukwu Ibezim.
Twenty-seven IDP camps across eight flood-prone local governments have been activated,” he told ThisNigeria.
The affected areas, according to him, include Anambra East, Anambra West, Ogbaru, Idemili South, Onitsha South, Ayamelum, Ihiala, and Ekwusigo.
“We’re clearing drains, fumigating camps, and providing temporary schools and health services. Our teams are on alert,” he added.
Yet many displaced persons doubt these assurances.
“We’ve heard this before,” said a fisherman from Atani. “We only see officials after the water has swallowed everything. It’s the same story every year.”
A 2024 report by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) revealed that over 54,000 people were affected across 37 locations in Anambra alone during last year’s flooding, underscoring the scale of the recurring disaster.
