By Cajetan Mmuta, Anthony Otaru and David Eze
Nigeria’s record $6.1 billion in non-oil export earnings in 2025 has rekindled national interest in the solid minerals sector, but economists and policy analysts warn that the impressive figure disguises deep-seated revenue leakages arising from raw mineral exports, illegal mining, and long-standing governance failures.
Figures released by the Nigeria Export Promotion Council (NEPC) show that non-oil exports grew by 11.5 per cent from $5.46 billion in 2024 to $6.1 billion in 2025.
The exports covered 281 products spanning agriculture, industrial inputs, processed and semi-processed goods, and solid minerals.
In volume terms, total non-oil exports stood at 8.02 million metric tonnes, representing a 10 per cent increase over the previous year.
While the numbers suggest progress in Nigeria’s diversification drive, experts argue that growth is primarily driven by export volumes rather than value, with most solid minerals shipped abroad in raw form.
They say this structure limits earnings, stifles industrialisation and denies the economy jobs and critical linkages along the value chain.
*Experts say export growth is driven by raw minerals, informal cross-border trade
Former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, described the performance as a reflection of what he termed “mundane diversification,” warning that exporting unprocessed minerals offers little long-term benefit to the economy.
“Exporting raw minerals is nothing but mundane diversification. The figures may look big, but compared to Nigeria’s growth needs, they are very marginal,” Ekpo said. He stressed that a fundamental economic transformation would only occur if Nigeria processed and refined its minerals locally before export.
Ekpo also blamed insecurity, corruption and widespread illegal mining for preventing the country from maximising its mineral wealth. According to him, earnings from the sector remain far below Nigeria’s true potential because mining activities are poorly secured and weakly regulated.
“Insecurity has spread to every nook and corner of the country. Corruption and illegal mining must be tackled headlong,” he said, while also criticising the lack of transparency in the use of security votes meant to safeguard mining communities.
The Executive Secretary of NEPC, Nonye Ayeni, acknowledged the concerns, noting that the $6.1 billion figure represents the highest formally recorded non-oil export value since the council was established. She said the data underscores the growing relevance of the non-oil sector to the Nigerian economy.
“In volume terms, total non-oil exports stood at 8.02 million metric tonnes, reflecting a 10 per cent increase compared to the previous year,” Ayeni said.
However, she admitted that the official figures do not capture the full extent of Nigeria’s export activity, as large volumes of goods still leave the country informally through land borders, outside official documentation and regulatory oversight.
“The outstanding performance is not the total story, as a lot of exports still go out informally through the nation’s borders,” Ayeni said. She added that NEPC is targeting at least $7 billion in non-oil export earnings by 2027 through improved documentation, trade formalisation and the expansion of export value chains.
Another economist, Prof Sheriffdeen Tella of Babcock University, said Nigeria’s mining sector remains grossly underreported because much of its activity occurs outside formal structures and is driven by powerful interests.
“The mining sector has always been underplayed in revenue reporting because of illegal mining involving political, military and business elites,” Tella said. He noted that the dominance of informal mining fuels insecurity, weakens regulation and deprives the government of substantial revenues.
According to Tella, bringing the sector into the formal economy through transparency and accountability could unlock far higher income than what Nigeria currently records.
*Illegal mining, outdated laws, insecurity blamed for billions in losses
A consultant to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Prof Agharese Osifo, attributed the sector’s poor performance to decades of failed and outdated policies.
Citing data from the Nigerian Extractive Industries Initiative (NEITI), Osifo said solid minerals contribute only about 0.5 per cent to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product, despite the country’s vast mineral endowment.
“This sorry situation is despite the huge deposits of untapped solid minerals potential across the country,” Osifo said.
He blamed fragmented and outdated laws, including the Nigerian Minerals and Mining Act of 2007 and the National Minerals and Metals Policy of 2008, for failing to provide regulatory clarity and attractive incentives for serious investors.
“The legal framework is fragmented and outdated, lacking the governance structures necessary to attract domestic and foreign capital,” he said.
Osifo also identified poor geoscience data, weak electricity supply and dilapidated road networks as significant constraints to mining development. He warned that Nigeria loses more than $5 billion annually to illegal mining and other illicit activities, adding that with proper regulation, the sector could generate over $10 billion each year and create more than one million direct and indirect jobs.
“Policy reforms alone are insufficient without strong political will to address the hydra-headed insecurities plaguing Nigeria,” Osifo said, citing Zamfara State as an example where banditry, kidnapping and communal conflicts have crippled mining operations and scared away investors.
Public affairs analyst, Comrade Eze Oko Splendour, said Nigeria’s solid minerals sector remains one of the most underutilised assets in the economy, despite its enormous potential.
He cited Senate estimates suggesting that the sector could generate about $3 billion annually if properly regulated, adding that Nigeria’s lithium deposits and emerging processing plants could position the country as a key player in the global battery and renewable energy market.
“Nigeria’s solid minerals sector needs a comprehensive overhaul to become a true alternative to oil,” Splendour said. He added that minerals such as gold, iron ore, coal and limestone could drive manufacturing, infrastructure development and the creation of thousands of direct and indirect jobs.
Collectively, the experts agreed that Nigeria’s $6.1 billion in non-oil exports, rather than being a clear sign of success, highlights a deeper structural problem. They argue that Nigeria remains rich in minerals but poor in institutions, value addition and governance, exporting raw materials while losing billions of dollars annually to illegal mining, informal trade and weak regulatory frameworks.
Until the country confronts insecurity, reforms its mining laws, invests in processing capacity and enforces transparency across the sector, analysts warn that solid minerals will continue to represent another missed opportunity in Nigeria’s long-running quest for sustainable economic diversification.
