By Olusegun Olanrewaju
Some 25 years ago, Nigeria sailed on another plane, with a fresh attempt at emplacing democracy.
It was the outset of another landmark journey, this time, to the Fourth Republic, as some are wont to tag the trajectory.
So far, the attempt has proven somewhat partially successful, laced with grandiose digging in the run.
This is as the nation, for the first time in its chequered history, has now been running an unbroken chord in its pursuit of the ‘government of the people’ doctrine, with a political system that needs more potency, experts say.
Political parties are central to the implementation of a credible and workable party system and democracy.
But the parties (especially the major ones) in Nigeria, have been finding it hard to meet the yearnings of their supporters since the outset of the current dispensation in 1999.
The problem is henpecked on the fact that, while the older parties have been having their way, winning elections and building up the system, they have simply refused to grow, largely due to the obstacles plaguing their ways and runs.
Perhaps, at no particular point needs this ‘restructuring’ of political parties has been more required than an observation of the events and issues surrounding the controversial 2023 p0lls.
A Nigerian professor, Jideofor Adibe, who teaches International Relations and Political Science at the Nasarawa State University, Keffi, notes that even though 10 principal factors combined to drive the 2023 general elections in the country, yet they are not being properly marshalled to drive the boat of the political process in the country to the expected destination.
The first factor he identified relates to influencing the democratic factor through ethnicity and regionalism.
As a demonstration, he fingers the ‘fact’ that four of the 18 presidential candidates in the 2023 election, regarded as the front-runners, emerged from the three dominant ethnic groups in the country: Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo.
“From the north are Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president of the country (1999-2007), and the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party; and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, a former governor of Kano State and the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) in the 2023 election.
“Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Yoruba from the South-West, is the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress. Peter Obi, an Igbo from the South-East and former governor of Anambra State, is the presidential candidate of the Labour Party.”
Also according to his findings, ”Since the 1999 election, there has been an unwritten convention that presidential power will rotate every eight years between the northern and southern parts of the country.
”That’s why many individuals and groups from both the north and the south insist that President Muhammadu Buhari must be succeeded by someone from the south.
”Some individuals and groups from the South-East further argue that because the zone has not yet produced a president, it should get its turn in 2023.”
Adibe added, ”Some from the North-East, where Atiku comes from, equally argue that it should be their turn since the zone has not produced a national head since Tafawa Balewa, the country’s first and only prime minister, in the 1960s.
The second factor, according to the seasoned academic, is religion.
”Just like ethnicity and regionalism, religion has always been an important tool of mobilisation and discord in Nigeria.
”Since 1999, there has also been a careful balancing act to ensure that the president and the vice president do not share the same religion. While the north is predominantly Muslim, the south is predominantly Christian.
”This balance was upset when Bola Tinubu, a Yoruba Muslim, chose Kashim Shettima, a Kanuri Muslim and former governor of Borno State, as his running mate.
”Many Nigerians and groups, including the Christian Association of Nigeria, strongly condemned the ticket.
Yet another factor is rooted in the ’emergence of ‘viable’ third-force parties.
”Until 2015, Nigeria’s political landscape was dominated by one party – the Peoples Democratic Party. It was the only party strong enough to win presidential elections.
”This changed in 2015 when the All Progressives Congress (APC), a coalition of opposition parties, defeated the sitting president, Goodluck Jonathan. This heralded an era of a two-party dominant state.”
However, he notes that ”The emergence of the Labour Party and the New Nigeria People’s Party seems to have changed the electoral dynamics.”
Obi, he argues, frames his campaign on anti-establishment rhetoric and is, therefore, able to attract a horde of frustrated young voters.
This, it is believed, is because, ”As the only Christian among the four leading candidates, Obi may also benefit electorally from Christians opposed to the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the ruling APC.
”At least, three opinion polls showed him leading the race, though some have questioned the credibility of those polls.”
Kwankwaso, the founder of the Kwankwasiyya movement, is regarded as a grassroots organiser. He is also believed to be popular with ordinary people in the north, ”but is thought to lack a strong following in the south.”
The political scientist ably identifies the ‘Burden of History’ as the next important factor to be periscoped in the analysis of Nigeria’s political structure.
He writes, “Obi’s candidacy has been endorsed by the Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the pan-Igbo socio-political organisation, and some influential non-Igbo groups and individuals, including former president, Olusegun Obasanjo.
”In the South-East region, there is a deeply ingrained belief that there is a conspiracy to exclude the Igbo from certain key political positions in the country because of their role in the Civil War (1967-1970).
”This belief has helped fuel secessionist agitations. Though the political elite of the region have remained aloof or lukewarm to Obi’s candidacy, he is deified by ordinary people in the region who are excited by the ‘audacity’ of his candidacy.
Next comes the issue of performance at presidential debates. He says of this, ”In recent years, various groups have been organising debates for key political contestants in the country.
”I have argued elsewhere that presidential debates do not affect the outcome of presidential elections. Leading candidates often refuse to take part in some or all of such debates.”
Then, there is the issue of independence of the electoral umpire, INEC, and the new Electoral Act; Insecurity; Money; crises and schisms within parties; followed by simply ‘The Unknown
Factor; Power Alternation and Zoning; ‘Breaking of the Bargain” (as exemplified by the case in 2011, when Goodluck Jonathan, a southern Christian, ran for the presidency, despite it being the north’s turn, according to the unwritten agreement. His victory broke the 1998–1999 bargain.
”This move caused widespread violence in the northern region, as many felt that the power alternation principle had been violated; Subsequent elections further strained the delicate balance between regions and ethnicities.
Other issues or factors are lack of accountability and corruption; Godfatherism and elite cabals; strength of institutions, and effectiveness of policies:
Pundits agree with the position of former US president, Barack Obama, that weak institutions, including the electoral commission and judiciary, undermine the democratic process.
Ineffective policies and governance exacerbate socioeconomic challenges, leaving citizens dissatisfied with party performance are also fingered as some areas Nigeria can better its lot to get to its political land of promise.
Adibe, therefore, summarises that ”Nigerian political parties have faced significant hurdles in meeting the expectations of their supporters due to power struggles, corruption, ethnic divisions, and weak institutions.
”Addressing these issues is crucial for Nigeria’s democratic consolidation and effective governance. However, achieving lasting change requires concerted efforts from both political leaders and citizens alike.
Another top commentator offers his perspective on the issues underscoring the quest for election and democratic process in the country.
In a treatise on ‘Politics and Elections in Nigeria: What has changed?’ Former Director-General of the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA), Prof Tonnie Iredia, notes that learning from the several reports in the last two months of the crisis rocking virtually all political parties in Nigeria in 2023, ”It is now certain that the country does not have any real political party.”
According to him, “It is a development that should be a cause for worry because all the nation’s woes are premised on our bogus political system.”
He added, “Optimists who have continued to hope that there would be a change soon should either give up that hope or be fair enough to tell us what has changed.”
Referring to sundry data obtained from the 2023 version of the election in Nigeria over some four months during the election period, he submits, ”It was glaring that from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), we have generous background information on how and where party members are up in arms with themselves.
Iredia also stated, “According to media reports, the crisis generated by the ward congresses of the party took a volatile stance in many places, especially Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Osun states.
“It is probably unnecessary to spend useful energy enumerating the recurring issue of rancorous party activities because it has always been so. In which case, what can we say has changed in our polity?
“Nothing has changed as the undoing of every political party in Nigeria is usually located within party congresses and conventions, especially the segment on party primaries.
”What triggers the discontent is always the failure of the political parties to be fair to all their members by creating a level-playing field for events. The leaders always have a hidden agenda whenever an event is scheduled.
“They either change the rules midway or decline to forward the name of the winning aspirant during primaries. This is because our political parties lack internal democracy.
“The immediate implication of this is that our bogus constitution might not be our greatest challenge because if those who run political parties cannot adhere to the general standards of democratic practices, we can hardly get it right even with a perfect constitution. ”
*New challenges
Trouble in getting a workable party system has thrown up fresh challenges that need to be wrestled down.
Questions are being asked as to why and how it has been difficult for the new parties to contend by raising their membership drive and general size. And this is despite the different levels of implosion starring the bigger parties in the naked face.
This particular challenge is, however, being addressed by way of contemplation of mega parties, for instance, by forces loyal to the renowned political economist, Pat Utomi.
Iredia, however, cautions on this. He says, “It would be misleading to dwell on the two mega parties and thus imply that the malaise in our party system has to do with large size. Such a storyline is inaccurate because the problem is not the exclusive preserve of the big parties.”
He further notes, “The smaller ones are often more irritating. The drama that has been playing in the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) over the forthcoming Anambra governorship election confirms this.
“The confusion caused by the party as to who is the appropriate aspirant and the genuine executive committee of the party may not end even after the election. The same is true of the other parties whether big or small.
“A few years back, that was how great personalities such as Jerry Gana, Donald Duke, Tunde Adeniran, Yemi Farounbi, etc. that formed the Social Democratic Party (SDP) fizzled out over intra-party squabbles, thereby depriving us of the services of such experienced political actors. ”
“However, we need to accept the truth that our political parties of old took the same pattern confirming that nothing has changed in our body politics.”
*Conclusion
The above background, it is argued, markedly shows that nothing has changed in the nation’s elections too. The reason for this is not far-fetched, a commentator, Sam Ogbodo, notes.
He aptly observes,” One incontrovertible fact which validates this viewpoint is that most of our politicians do not believe in free and fair elections notwithstanding that some of them are acclaimed apostles of the popular slogan – one man, one vote.”
According to him, ”If the truth must be told, the behaviour of a typical Nigerian politician represents a double-faced person who does the opposite of his supposed cherished catchphrases.
”In any case, it would have been hard for people who are comfortable with rigging internal party contests concerning only their members to play by the rules in general elections.”
Ogbodo further observes that, ”To start with, none of our political parties has an accurate membership register; not because they are usually overwhelmed by large crowds seeking to register but because they deliberately create confusion to give room for manipulation.
The fake figures that they generate from bogus membership registers are later put to multifarious use.
Giving an example of the Jonathan era, he says his party loyalists seeking to impress him organised rallies across the nation where persons who allegedly signed location registers urging Jonathan to seek reelection were more in number than the figure in the INEC voters’ register.
Similarly, the commentator adds, on the eve of the 2019 Presidential elections, APC leaders had assembled 175 million people to vote for President Buhari.
”This was reportedly made up of 60 million APC women and Youths, 40 million from the Buhari Osinbajo Dynamic Support Group, 20 million from Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria as some others too numerous to list here.
”But then, the INEC register which was to enable such admirers to fulfil their pledges had 84 million registered voters
Going back in history to the Second Republic (1979-1983), he notes that there had been governors ”who used their state-owned media organs to announce their re-election before the then Federal Electoral Commission FEDEC0 finished counting the votes of the same election.”
That pattern, according to him, is what the politicians of today have imbibed with special reference to local government elections that they control.
In every such election in Nigeria the ruling party in the state usually ‘sweeps’ all the positions contested and quite often records millions of votes in locations where voting did not take place.
