A Nigerian criminologist and security expert, Professor Tope Oriola, has identified corruption, compromised intelligence and weak political commitment as key factors frustrating efforts to defeat Boko Haram and other armed groups after more than a decade of counter-insurgency operations.
Oriola, a Professor of Criminology at the University of Alberta, Canada, argued that Nigeria’s security challenge had evolved beyond a conventional fight against a single terrorist organisation, with different criminal groups increasingly collaborating for operational and financial gains.
He said the country could begin recording decisive progress against the insurgency within a few years if the government depoliticised security operations, strengthened intelligence gathering and deployed modern technology.
Speaking on Deep Insight with Agbonsuremi, a podcast hosted by veteran journalist Augustine Okhiria Agbonsuremi, Oriola said Boko Haram had undergone significant transformation and could no longer be understood as a single, clearly defined organisation.
“Boko Haram has metastasised. It is no longer contained to a single battlefield. It is no longer a single entity,” he said.
The criminologist said the development had made Nigeria’s security situation more complex, particularly as bandit groups and terrorist organisations increasingly found areas of mutual interest.
According to him, the groups could cooperate despite having different motivations, particularly through the exchange of weapons, intelligence, training and expertise in handling abducted victims.
“The distinction now between bandits and terrorists is purely academic. In reality, there has been a convergence and confluence of interests and groups,” he said.
Oriola described the relationship between some bandits and terrorist groups as “symbiotic”, explaining that their cooperation was driven largely by operational interests rather than a shared ideology.
He said, “Bandit groups do not necessarily think of spreading Sharia law to any region of a country. That is for the Islamist-linked groups. But in terms of operational cooperation, provision of weapons, tactical acumen and exchanges, there is a huge level of cooperation going on.”
Oriola also alleged that corruption within the security architecture had contributed significantly to the persistence of terrorism, claiming that intelligence leaks had at times exposed military personnel and installations to attacks.
He said his research into insurgency had revealed concerns among military personnel over the compromise of sensitive information, including allegations involving commissioned officers.
According to him, some actionable intelligence was allegedly sold to Boko Haram, allowing insurgents to anticipate security operations and launch attacks against military formations.
He further alleged that Boko Haram had, particularly between 2010 and 2015, offered substantial financial rewards for sensitive information capable of aiding its operations.
Oriola said such alleged compromises could also explain some instances in which insurgents were able to acquire weapons and equipment following attacks on military positions.
He linked part of the problem to political interference within the security establishment, arguing that the involvement of some senior military officers in partisan politics had affected the perception of neutrality within the armed forces.
The professor said Nigeria’s security problems could not be addressed through military operations alone, stressing that the absence of effective government institutions in many rural communities had created opportunities for criminal groups to establish influence.
He argued that the lack of police presence, healthcare, electricity and other basic services had left some communities vulnerable.
“When you lack such visible presence, even at a performative level in communities, it is an invitation to chaos. You are simply empowering a lot of non-state actors to step in and fill that void,” Oriola said.
He rejected the argument that poverty by itself was responsible for criminality, saying deeper inequalities and the failure of the state to provide citizens with meaningful alternatives were more significant factors.
“Poverty in and of itself does not cause crime. A huge part of what contributes to the enterprise of crime and terrorism is embedded and metastasised social inequality,” he said.
Oriola said the expansion of violent crime from the North-East and North-West into parts of the South-West should have been anticipated, given the ease of movement across Nigeria.
“It was always a matter of time. These things never get contained somewhere, especially with the fluidity and porosity of the borders,” he said.
He warned that failure to contain the trend could expose other parts of the country, including the South-South and South-East, to increased security threats.
The don also called for improved welfare for military personnel and their families, arguing that the treatment of soldiers after their death could affect the morale of those still serving on the battlefield.
He expressed concern over alleged cases in which families of deceased soldiers struggled with accommodation and access to benefits after losing their breadwinners.
“What message are we sending to the troops at the war theatre about what might happen to their children and their wives if a similar thing happens? This is one of the ways we are indirectly demotivating these individuals,” he said.
Oriola, however, acknowledged the commitment of many Nigerian soldiers despite the challenges confronting them.
“There are very gallant officers and soldiers to this day who are willing and ready to lay down their lives for the country. The question is: are we making it worth their while?” he asked.
The criminologist said the government’s response should focus less on the deployment of large numbers of troops and more on precision operations supported by intelligence and technology.
He recommended the wider use of drones, heat-sensing equipment and other surveillance systems to track terrorists and identify their movements.
“We will be working with much smaller teams. I would be dealing more with Special Forces, and this would be technologically driven, intelligence-driven,” he said.
He also advocated stronger incentives for citizens who provide credible intelligence and adequate protection for whistleblowers and their families.
Oriola maintained that funding was not necessarily Nigeria’s biggest obstacle, noting that significant resources had already been allocated to security.
“Coordination has been a big issue, but also sagging patriotism,” he said.
Despite his criticisms, Oriola said Nigeria could make substantial progress against the insurgency within five years if the right policies were implemented consistently.
He cautioned against expecting an immediate solution but said measurable improvements could emerge within the first year of a properly coordinated strategy.
“Two years is probably a bit optimistic, but closer to five years is hard on pragmatic. That can happen with tangible results within a year and incremental results afterwards,” he said.
Oriola further urged Nigerians to recognise that community security could not be left entirely to government and security agencies.
He encouraged citizens to report suspicious movements and activities, while urging the authorities to establish systems that would protect those who provide useful information.
“The presupposition that this is an exclusive preserve of the government is one of the biggest misconceptions about insecurity,” he said.
Drawing comparisons with other countries, he said information supplied by members of the public remained an important source of intelligence for law enforcement.
“In Canada, the United States and other Western countries, the police rarely discover crimes. The bulk of the crimes or potentially criminal actions that come to the attention of the authorities are from phone calls, tips and messages from citizens,” he said.
The professor also stressed the importance of education and social welfare in weakening extremist recruitment, saying communities affected by terrorism must be given reasons to choose a peaceful life over association with insurgents.
“We need to create that society that people will choose over going to Boko Haram in their camp in Sambisa Forest,” he said.
He urged Nigerians, particularly parents in conflict-affected areas, not to allow terrorism to destroy their children’s educational aspirations.
“We must not let them win, and we must take education as the first and most significant heritage that we can give to our children,” Oriola said.
Oriola said a combination of competent leadership, credible intelligence, modern surveillance technology, improved military welfare, social investment and stronger cooperation between citizens and security agencies would be required to reverse Nigeria’s prolonged security crisis.
