The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Nigeria’s economy to become Africa’s third-largest in 2026.
As of October 2025, Nigeria’s economy was ranked Africa’s fourth-largest.
Data from IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025 edition), showed that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices, stood at about $285 billion in 2025, placing it behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria.
With a GDP of about $426 billion, South Africa topped the African ranking, followed by Egypt ranked second at $349 billion and Algeria ranked third with $288 billion.
However, the IMF forecasts that Nigeria will leapfrog Algeria in 2026 as economic output rebounds, driven by higher oil production, improved foreign exchange liquidity and the impact of ongoing economic reforms.
The projections by the IMF showed that Nigeria’s GDP is expected to rise to $334 billion, putting it ahead of Algeria ($284 billion) and making it Africa’s third-largest economy, behind South Africa ($443 billion) and Egypt ($399 billion).
The Fund’s outlook reflects expectations that recent reforms, including petrol subsidy removal, exchange-rate liberalisation and fiscal adjustments, will support medium-term growth, despite short-term inflationary pressures.
Africa’s largest economy’s position has shifted in recent years amid currency devaluations, rebasing exercises and macroeconomic headwinds across major economies on the continent.
On January 19, the IMF reviewed its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth rate upward to 4.4 percent in 2026.
The Bretton Woods organisation revised the rate upward from its initial projection of 4.2 per cent.
On January 13, the World Bank also increased its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4 percent from the 3.7 per cent forecast in June 2025.
