Nigeria’s national security and the Sahel challenge

By Rekpene Bassey
Nigeria’s security forces merit considerable respect for their persistent efforts against terrorism and insurgency. Notably, they have significantly decimated and confined Boko Haram to the Lake Chad region.
This achievement aligns with the objectives of various military operations, as the Nigerian army, supported by other security agencies, has de-escalated and considerably de-radicalised numerous Boko Haram adherents. Despite these efforts, Boko Haram has splintered into several different groups over time.
The factions emerging from Boko Haram include the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), founded by al-Barnawi, an affiliate of the Islamic State (IS), and Al-Shabaab. Other groups have since emerged, such as Ansaru, loyal to Al-Qaeda, and Darul Salam, Kwana, and Fulani militias, all sharing similar violent ideologies. These groups have perpetrated numerous killings, kidnappings, and other brutal attacks across northern Nigeria.
Disturbingly, the proliferation of these groups appears to be unabated, reflecting the current sociological and ideological realities. This context explains the emergence of Lukurawa, the latest group contributing to the violence. Lukurawa has mainly been responsible for attacks in northwestern Nigeria, particularly in Sokoto and Zamfara States.
Their modus operandi includes deploying improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to destroy critical infrastructure, such as bridges. A recent attack targeted the Mailamba Bridge in Malu Local Government Area in Zamfara State on December 11, 2024, killing 12 people.
Lukurawa is also suspected of abducting 50 people from a mining site in Zamfara recently. The group continues to ravage several rural communities in Sokoto State, leaving behind a trail of brutality, abductions, maiming, and deaths.
As the banditry war in Nigeria intensifies, examining the causative factors becomes increasingly necessary for more effective countermeasures. Beyond the myriad sociological and ideological factors, the volatility of the Sahel region has been identified as a significant contributor to the country’s insecurity.
The Sahel region is a vulnerable conduit for external elements joining various banditry groups and a source of small and light weapons. Given this, several questions arise: Can Nigeria address its current security challenges effectively without the operational support of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger Republic?
How can Nigeria navigate the strained relationships between these countries and France? How do these countries perceive Nigeria’s growing relationship with France and its implications for their national security?
These countries view Nigeria with some suspicion, especially as Nigeria’s administration leans towards France, from which they have distanced themselves due to unsavoury neo-colonial experiences. The broader view involves these countries’ perceptions of Nigeria’s regional diplomatic role, wildly as Nigeria veers towards alliances with China and France, among others, instead of the United States.
The emergence of Donald Trump as the American President adds another layer of complexity. Some political analysts suggest Nigeria might face diplomatic friction with the US under Trump due to his controversial leadership style.
Despite these challenges, President Tinubu knows the Sahel challenge to Nigeria’s national security. This awareness was evident when he assured Germany’s President Frank-Walter Steinmeier during his recent state visit to Nigeria that efforts were underway to reintegrate Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger into ECOWAS through diplomatic means.
However, it remains to be seen how this diplomatic effort will unfold, considering that Tinubu’s approach to Niger’s internal affairs initially alienated these countries from ECOWAS. Their absence at the last summit in Abuja indicates their lingering discontent.
In light of these converging issues, prioritising Nigeria’s national security against the Sahel challenge is paramount. The Sahel’s instability directly impacts Nigeria, requiring a multifaceted approach to regional security and international diplomacy.
Empirical evidence underscores the complexity of these challenges. For instance, studies by the International Crisis Group highlight the Sahel’s role in regional instability and the flow of arms into Nigeria. Reports from the Global Terrorism Index illustrate the evolving threat landscape, with Boko Haram and its offshoots adapting their strategies to sustain their campaigns of violence.
Further empirical data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicates a significant influx of small arms into Nigeria from the Sahel, exacerbating the conflict. The porous borders and the lack of practical regional cooperation have facilitated this arms flow, complicating efforts to curb the violence.
Moreover, research by the African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism (ACSRT) provides insights into the ideological motivations driving these groups. The ideological narratives propagated by groups like ISWAP and Ansaru attract recruits from disaffected communities, further entrenching the conflict.
The humanitarian impact is profound. Data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reveals that millions of people have been displaced due to the violence, with many seeking refuge in already vulnerable communities. This displacement crisis exacerbates existing socio-economic challenges, creating a fertile ground for further recruitment by extremist groups.
Addressing these challenges requires a holistic approach. Strengthening regional cooperation through ECOWAS and enhancing Nigeria’s diplomatic engagements with Sahelian countries is crucial. Additionally, addressing the root causes of radicalization, such as poverty, unemployment, and lack of education, is essential to undermine the appeal of extremist ideologies.
The Nigerian government must also invest more in robust intelligence-gathering and counter-terrorism capabilities. Enhancing the capacity of security forces and ensuring they have the necessary resources to combat these threats effectively is imperative.
In conclusion, Nigeria’s national security is intricately linked to the stability of the Sahel region. Addressing this challenge requires a concerted effort involving regional cooperation, robust counter-terrorism strategies, and addressing the socio-economic factors that fuel radicalisation. Only through a comprehensive and sustained approach can Nigeria hope to overcome the security challenges the Sahel poses and ensure lasting peace and stability.
*Rekpene Bassey is the President of the African Council on Narcotics (ACON) and a security and drug prevention expert.