By Rekpene Bassey
As the October Nigeria–China Sustainable Business and Bilateral Trade Summit draws near, a wave of diplomatic optimism is sweeping across Nigeria’s political and economic elite.
At the centre of this anticipation is the announcement that at least 216 Chinese investors have expressed interest in exploring diverse sectors of Nigeria’s economy.
The enthusiasm follows a recent high-level meeting attended by 295 CEOs, four Nigerian governors, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abass. But behind the pageantry of trade summits and the perfumed rhetoric of cooperation lies an urgent question: Will these investments serve Nigeria’s long-term economic interests, or deepen its dependency?
China, now Africa’s largest bilateral creditor and trading partner, has perfected the art of economic diplomacy. Between 2000 and 2023, China’s cumulative investment in Africa surpassed $155 billion, according to the China-Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University.
Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation and its largest economy, has naturally become a key player in this strategic chessboard. Yet, while Nigeria exports crude oil and imports everything from electronics to toothpicks, the trade balance remains stubbornly skewed in China’s favour.
In 2023 alone, Nigeria recorded $12.2 billion in exports to China, mainly raw materials, while importing over $23 billion in finished goods. The deficit is more than an economic statistic; it is a warning. Nigeria is trading raw potential for processed dominance, oil for opulence, jobs for just-in-time deliveries. Cui bono? Who truly benefits from this asymmetric exchange?
It is tempting, of course, to welcome the 216 investors with uncritical enthusiasm, in a country where youth unemployment hovers at 37.7% (as of 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics), and inflation approaches double digits, any promise of foreign capital sounds like salvation.
But as the Roman jurist Ulpian once noted, Summum ius, summa iniuria — the greatest law can become the greatest injustice if applied without wisdom. Not all investments are equal, and not all capital is constructive.
Nigeria’s challenge is not a lack of suitors. It is the absence of strategy. Without a coherent national framework for foreign direct investment (FDI) that prioritises value addition, technology transfer, local employment, and environmental sustainability, the country risks becoming a colony of convenience; its ports bustling, its factories idle, its citizens spectators in their economy.
China’s model of engagement is deliberate. Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it extends infrastructure loans often tied to Chinese contractors, labour, and equipment. While Nigerian roads, railways, and airports are being built, the supply chains remain external, the jobs are exported, and the debts are internalised.
According to the Debt Management Office records, Nigeria owes China $4.73 billion, a small percentage of its total external debt, but one that carries significant strategic influence.
History offers sobering lessons. In Sri Lanka, a Chinese-funded port in Hambantota became an economic white elephant, eventually leased to China for 99 years due to debt repayment difficulties. In Zambia, control of critical copper mines has slipped into Chinese hands. Nigeria, blessed with abundant human and natural resources, must not walk blindly into such Faustian bargains.
Yet all is not bleak. If approached with prudence and foresight, the upcoming summit could become a turning point; a redefinition of the Sino-Nigerian relationship from extractive to transformative.
Nigeria must insist that any investment includes skills development, joint ventures with local firms, and clear technology transfer clauses. No foreign investor should operate above domestic labour laws or environmental standards.
More crucially, Nigeria must negotiate from a position of economic strength, not desperation. This means first fixing the fundamentals: energy reliability, security of lives and property, judicial independence, and policy stability. Investors, Americans, Chinese, Europeans or otherwise, are risk-sensitive.
If the country remains plagued by erratic power supply and bureaucratic opacity, capital will flow. Yes. But only into extractive industries or enclave projects that contribute little to broad-based development.
There is also a moral imperative. Nigeria’s leaders must resist the temptation to mortgage long-term national interest for short-term political gain. As Aristotle once warned in Politics, the good leader must legislate not for momentary applause but for the enduring good. Salus populi suprema lex esto — the welfare of the people must be the highest law.
It is time to reimagine what investment means. Not just the inflow of dollars and yuan, but the development of minds, the growth of industries, and the building of resilient economic systems. Nigeria must utilise this summit to foster partnerships in renewable energy, agricultural processing, digital innovation, and the blue economy sectors – areas where value is generated, not just extracted.
Equally, Nigeria must protect its strategic sectors, such as telecoms, data infrastructure, and critical minerals, from exploitative control. In an era of digital imperialism, sovereignty is no longer measured just in territory, but in bandwidth, server farms, and cloud storage. China’s growing footprint in Africa’s digital space must be matched with vigilance and data protection laws.
There are many benefits of China’s experience. It lifted over 800 million people out of poverty in four decades, built world-class infrastructure, and became the world’s factory. But Nigeria must not import China’s state-capitalist model wholesale. Nigeria’s path must remain democratic, decentralised, and entrepreneur-driven. The goal is not to mimic the dragon, but to awaken the eagle.
To do this, Nigeria must also look inward in terms of long-term business security. There can be no sustainable investment if Nigerians themselves do not invest in Nigeria. The diaspora remitted $19.5 billion in 2023, more than oil revenues. What incentives exist to channel this into productive enterprise rather than real estate bubbles? What is the state doing to reduce the cost of doing business for the Nigerian investor?
The stakes are high. By 2050, Nigeria’s population is expected to surpass 400 million, making it the third most populous country in the world. What kind of economy will sustain that future? One defined by foreign outposts or indigenous industries? One fed by loans or led by innovation?
As the summit approaches, let Nigeria remember that trade and investment, while necessary, are not inherently virtuous. They are tools. Their virtue lies in how they are used. If wielded wisely, they can uplift a nation. If not, they become golden chains; gleaming, but binding.
Let’s not simply ask how many Chinese investors are coming. Let us ask: what are they building, whom are they empowering, and where is the Nigerian in the Nigerian economy? Nigeria’s Business Security must not mimic China. It is a matter of strategic national security.
Rekpene Bassey is the President of the African Council on Narcotics (ACON), and also a security and drug prevention expert.
