Presidential candidates creating impression they’ve run out of ideas – Baba-Ahmed, NEF

Director of Publicity and Advocacy of North Elders Forum, Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, speaks on the position of the North ahead of the February 25 presidential election and other sundry issues, in this interview on Channels TV, Political Paradigm, monitored by David Lawani

How do you feel that there is going to be another election?

Well, I am excited that we are having different elections; and a new president after President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years. This election is representing the massive potential for Nigerians to move in a different trajectory. These different elections allow 75 per cent of the voters to decide who will be the president and the calibre of candidates that will emerge to occupy various political offices. Millions of young Nigerians have decided to participate in who should be part of making a future that works. So I am excited. They are willing to hit the ground running. And they are preparing to take on the burden of leading Africa’s largest nation, the biggest democracy with great potential in the eyes of the world for a huge number of young frustrated people. My excitement is that we are going to renew the country through leadership. My concern is that we may not have the kind of people who will meet those standards. But, look it is already a done deal. We have over 80 million Nigerians. And Arewa will have to make a choice. We in the North Elders Forum, NEF, are watching. We will screen the candidates and we are hoping that eventually we and other Nigerians will make the right choice in terms of who has the greatest potential to offer the kind of leadership we are looking for.

You seem to be scared judging by the outcome of the several meetings held by the forum. Your fear seems to be reinforced by the volatile nature of the campaign we are witnessing today

I am not comfortable and it is like putting it mildly. I am very disappointed. But I am sure that I am not alone. When you hear and see spokespersons of presidential candidates use ‘vulgar’ language casting aspersion on the other candidates, you may say okay, ‘that is part of politics’. But when you see candidates haul insults against each other, and make horrible allegations against each other, who will now become our president? You ask yourself.

What does their conduct say to young Nigerians?

They inflame passion. They justify politics as a dirty game. They behave like people they should not be likened to. They are not setting standards for the people. They are not showing the quality leadership that they should be showing. They have thrown decency to the swine, and that is what is disappointing. They have created an impression that they have run out of ideas. They haul abuse and insults at one another. But this insult and abuse inflame an already charged atmosphere. It is enough to charge unrest, particularly among young people. It is disappointing.

How will this influence the decision of the Northern Elders Forum on who to support?

As I said, we have a lot of long paradigms of judgment. We looked at candidates. We looked at their programmes and manifestos for the same rallies, and media outings. We looked at the people around them. We looked at this kind of brickbats. We judge them. What we are looking at is a Nigerian president who is going to become responsible enough to lead a nation in distress. And the Northern Elders frown at this because it is not part of what is required to be a leader. We will score them low in that regard. And with the time that is left, if we have the opportunity, we will do the right thing. But don’t get carried away. As the president, you will be the number one citizen and everything you do or say has to show that you are seriously concerned about the example. And your conduct must be above board. For Northern Elders Forum, this is a major shift.

Does it bother you that NEF has met to decide what they want from whoever emerged as president? How do you feel that other regions have not done the same?

Let us be fair. Every group in the region has to decide on its own. After the Kaduna Arewa joint committee, which was tremendously a success, we suspected that it will be difficult to replicate again for many reasons. The North is more cohesive. It was not just by NEF but a collaboration of six critical groups in the North that came together to say let us get some of the candidates and interrogate them in the public. So despite the plurality and diversity in the North, in political terms, we have more cohesiveness. We could do that. The other regions were left with the choice. We held it in Kaduna and I am not sure we want to do it again. Kaduna is not a soft landing for many. It was tough. We put the candidates through some rigorous and challenging times. The rush for endorsement may be some regions felt coming out to say this is our candidate. And he is the person we want to go for at his advantage because they identify the person earlier enough. We have not done that. We don’t want to rush to judgment. We have a pretty good idea of the criteria we are applying and who we will adopt that we will advise Northerners to vote for. We have a pretty clear idea at this stage of who we think may likely deserve our support. I can’t judge the actions of other candidates from other regions.

How do you mean that the North has better cohesion than the other regions?

I think we are more sophisticated in political thinking. Why? For instance, should the North go out to endorse a candidate in a region that has a huge standpoint of ethnicity from the region where he comes from? Buhari comes from the North. But the North has never been this worst as it is. We now know how damaging it is to now sit down and think he is one of us. And he comes from our region. We know that. We are looking for quality. And if we find it we will say this is the person. We fought the battle with the rest of the country over this. Even when a Northern should contest, we won that battle. Remember this time, this year, Southern governors all 17 of them from APC, PDP, and APGA would gather in one place and send threats to say no party should give a Northerner a platform, a ticket to contest? The presidency must come to the south. We fought that battle where we say show us in the constitution where the law states no Northerner can contest. And no party should give a ticket. We won that battle because it was the right thing. You cannot stop a Nigerian from aspiring to be a Nigerian President. The constitution can identify the qualifications and what it requires to be. If your party fields you and you happen to be from the North or South, it is up to the voters to decide. So, we won that battle. And we didn’t do it for a Northerner but we did it because it says every Nigerian is eligible to participate in the selection of the election of our leaders. You cannot hijack it for a political reason. So, we have done well. We have also done the Kaduna thing. We think our strategies for following these candidates, evaluating and assessing them, and holding back and not being stampeded by the choice that others have made is the best strategy.

Some have said the endorsement from the Northern Elders Forum amounts to nothing because in 2019 despite it didn’t support President Muhammadu Buhari in the North, he won in the North. How do you react to the claims that the support from your group doesn’t say much?

I will say let us wait and see. At this stage, we are comfortable with what we have. And we are fortunate that a substantial amount of them understand what we are doing. And they understand the value of being cautious. They understand the value of rigorous assessment and evaluation of candidates. The pressure is not coming from the North. And it is coming from people who have already endorsed someone. And when they say this is the candidate we are just watching. We even say at this stage everybody is our candidate. Out of the 18 candidates, as far as we know there is no hindrance to anybody coming to the North to say vote me. And we want the Northern candidates to have the same access all over the place. We have four weeks. We are not panicking. Some people want to endorse someone now. I am afraid they will be disappointed. We know what we are doing. We are doing the right thing as far as we know. And there are many ways you can endorse a candidate. We don’t need to follow someone else’s pattern. We can chart our course. And that is what we are doing now. And we are very comfortable with what we are doing now. If people think Northern Elders Forum is irrelevant we will just, say let us wait and see. We know who we are.

Is your criticism restricted to General Muhammadu Buhari or APC in general?

I think it is both. I was in APC as chairman of the party for three to four years in my state of Kaduna. And I participated actively in the election of President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015. The basis for this criticism is basically that he has failed. He has dashed the hope of many Nigerians. He has not fought corruption. He has not fought insecurity. And he has not improved the economy. And rather than say keep quiet about it, he is one of us. And we were part of the people that elected him. I and other members of the forum decided that we say no you may be a Northerner but for goodness sake, you may be creating problems for the north. Look at where we are now. When he became president, only North East we knew had IDPs. We didn’t know what IDPs were in most parts of the North. But, today you have IDPs all over the place in their millions. The entire economy of the North is gone. Who is supposed to be responsible for it? Someone. People can’t go to their farms to harvest yields this year same thing lady year. Somebody must be held responsible for it. Our criticism of President Muhammadu Buhari is based on evaluation and monitoring. Few weeks to leave, he is borrowing through the CBN. And the president’s aloofness and hands-off approach is sickening. What you see is a lot of drift to approach to governance. You cannot treat this country or run it like a badly governed country and not have people criticised it. But it has nothing to do with him. It is just a reflection of his performance.

Which questions would you like to ask the APC presidential candidate?

I was allowed only one question in Kaduna, and I asked him. President Muhammadu Buhari’s records in the North have not been a good one. One of your liabilities is that you are going to step in his shoes, and you are going to convince Northerners to elect you. One of the problems you will have is that you will inherit his liabilities. Tell us in the North what you will do differently that he has not done. And how you intend to reduce these liabilities. His response was interesting. I am Tinubu. And he is Buhari. He has his ways of doing things, and I will do mine in my way. He also said President Muhammadu Buhari has done well. I will build on those things, but that is what we are expecting to hear from any politician. You cannot denounce a president who still has considerable power to decide whether you win the election or not. We didn’t expect anything from that. But for me, APC will need to do a lot more work to clean up the table. The eight years they have been in power have not been particularly outstanding. If they are going to say trust us with power, then we are going to do a lot differently. They have to say in specific terms what it is they will do. How are you going to fight the security challenges that emerged under your watch as a party? Who are those going to be your governors? We are not only looking at candidates but the quality of gubernatorial candidates. We are looking at the kind of people they will be sent to the National Assembly. So, we are assessing them comprehensively and totally. We are looking at people as potential governors, legislators, and executives. The challenge will be what to do with the legacy of APC.

Nigerians are not comfortable with the idea of presidential candidates going to Chatham House to speak. What do you make of it?

I stand with Nigerians who think this is contemptuous. This is irresponsible. Because you will spend a huge amount of money going to London to speak. You are not speaking to British people. They are not interested in what you plan to do in Nigeria. It is also demeaning. It demeans the country, you, who is likely to be the president of the country that you have to a bunch of Nigerians, a small think tank not in terms of capacity. You don’t have any business going outside the country to impress us. Impress us here where the action is. Tell us what you are going to do about the joblessness. Tell us what you are going to do about 50 million young people who have no hope. They are not going to school. Or if they are, there is no work for them. They graduate and there is nothing. Tell us what you intend to do about this population bulge. What are you going to do about Nnamdi Kanu? Are you going to talk to him, or negotiate with him? All the bandits and criminals what are you going to do with them? Talk to us here. Tell us. But when you go out of this country because someone else is gone, it shows clearly that you are not impressing anybody. Anybody can go to Chatham House. And again, I don’t want to be disrespectful of Chatham House. Because it is not a big deal. But in fact, what it represents is that you don’t think much of Nigeria and Nigerians. And when you become president of Nigeria is that how you are going to be conducting your foreign policy? It is going to be a reflection of your foreign policy on how you relate with Nigerians and other countries. What do the foreign people have to do with this election? So, there are Nigerians who are worried about this. And I am one. I know we don’t have any influence over them. I wish we don’t have any other avenue to go out but they will find it and do it.

Will the Muslim-Muslim ticket be a factor now that it has resurfaced?

The North is made up of Muslims and Christians. Religion is a highly susceptible thing as it is now. In the North, it is most sensitive because it is one of the major faults. It has triggered a lot of conflicts. It doesn’t have to be an issue. The Muslim-Muslim ticket is a deliberate choice by the APC candidate and he will live with the consequences of that choice. We can see some fit. It has alienated some Northern Christian elements of the northern population, a substantial number. Maybe, it is based on calculations but what we do know is that no Nigerian Northern Christian will fight over the ticket for or against because their faith will be not favoured. If Tinubu becomes President, Islam will be treated better than the Christians because both he and his deputy are Muslims. We will not allow our face to be used for patently partisan interest. We know our commitment to our faith is stronger than this. So, there is a lot of politics involved in this. But what we do know is that we will not fight over faith.

Do you say it is not a factor in decision-making?

No, it is not.

Are you not worried that if the Muslim-Muslim ticket succeeds might fuel agitation in some regions?

Look, no one can become the president of this country unless they are voted under the rules and the laws. They are voted by a majority of Nigerians and they must win 25 per cent of the votes in at least 24 states. And they must get the majority of the lawful votes cast. Anybody who wants to become president must have massive votes from Christians and Muslims. You cannot become president even if all Muslims line up behind you. Because you won’t get the requirements. This tendency to say if he wins, it will be if he wins because Christians and Muslims have voted for him. So, where does this Muslim-Muslim ticket emerges from? If the Muslim candidate wins it is because Christians support such a person to win. It is irrelevant. The APC sees it as a vote winner. But no matter what you think of it, the judgment for that decision will be how Nigerians vote. That is why I say you must ensure transparency in the elections. You must allow credible elections to take place. Whoever wins this election must have won it, without doubt, transparency because you have shown you won it free and fair. That is the best way to solve this argument

Why did you say Peter Obi might not win because of the titans in the election? And Prof Ango Abdullahi said the same thing?

I think to be fair to both of us. You asked about the prospects of the election. And I said we look at Nigeria, we look at Labour Party and Obi as a candidate, and we look at where they stand concerning all the competition and the problems they will have to face to win an election for them. To win an election for them will require the same for Atiku and Tinubu to win an election. That means real votes have been cast to give you 25 per cent of the votes in 24 states, and the simple majority of the votes cast. Currently, they are facing two huge parties that have massive resources and support in many parts of the North, and many parts of Nigeria. It has got to reduce that support that they have and tilt it towards his direction- that is going to take a lot of resources, mobilisation, and money. Then you have people who will mobilise for you because they are also contesting. It doesn’t have many candidates for the state’s house of assemblies, federal House of Representatives, Senate, and governorship like APC and PDP have. They don’t have that. That is a critical requirement. These are what are called the structures of the party. Party candidates, officials, and representatives, but Labour Party keep saying the people are its structures. When Prof Ango Abdullahi and I said his challenges are more profound than theirs is because somehow they don’t appear to paying attention to grassroots mobilisation. You need to mobilise voters. You need to go to Zamfara to say if you elect me, Peter Obi I will do better than Atiku and Tinubu because I understand the problems. My people in Zamfara are people who are going to run for office. They can go to Gombe and sell themselves. Rallies are not indicators of popularity. Anybody can do a rally. So, when we make comments about Labour Party, it is not as if we don’t like them. And it is not as if we have already decided on that that we won’t support them. I interpret the question in terms of why we say Peter Obi has a more difficult challenge than say Atiku or Tinubu.

How come your group is not saying Atiku or Tinubu is having that kind of challenge?

Why not? We are not just supporting someone who has the best chance of winning. We are looking for the candidate who is the best. And when we say the best, we mean in character, background, and what we see as preparedness to lead the country. And the kind of government he is going to form because no single person can transform this country. You need a whole team who will work with you and the kind of strategy you have to make sure when you have the power you have some control or a good relationship with the legislature. Labour Party says that don’t worry about Peter Obi if he becomes President everybody will feel it. Sometimes, I feel that is a bit simplistic.

Isn’t it a Nigerian thing?

Yes. It is though. It is a distinct possibility. But another thing is that if he becomes what if the legislators and executives who you think will run for him will sit back because they also have powers and a lot of clouts? And they may not necessarily defect. The people that will be in the parliament, and governors will be from APC and PDP. They will ask: Does it pay us more to be in Labour Party or to join APC or PDP; or to get him to do what we want?

Are you saying you are not seeing good numbers winning in the Labour Party in the House of Representatives and Senate?

I am looking at the numbers they have to contest.

Do you realise there have been defections from either both of these parties to Labour Party as well?

Yes, because who is going to be your candidate is sealed. From INEC now you can get a picture of how many people Labour Party has across the country who runs for the state house of assemblies, and the federal House of Representatives, except for the few that are still being litigated, senators and governors. Look at the quality of people who want to be governors. Do they stand a good chance of becoming governors? As opposed to the APC and PDP candidates? You have to put those factors on the table and decide. But we are not going to decide purely based on who has the best chance of becoming a president. You could have the best of becoming the president but may not have the chance of becoming the best president. Or the right president. And we are looking for the right person. A lot of permutations and assumptions are being made. But we want a president who is prepared right now if he gets elected to begin governance.

Where does Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso stand in all of this? Why did he decline your invitation?

He declined because he said it was in favour of a candidate, and he was wrong because it was never intended to favour anybody. We said so before the forum. And we said so after. And today it has not endorsed any candidate. So he was wrong there. Why he doesn’t feature is because we have been monitoring all these things. If you want me to list the top three contenders. Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu. And there is a basis for that. Perception, standing, and foothold on the ground. I am surprised he might become the dark horse who knows? But we are looking at what looks like the three frontrunners. If he thinks he has a chance, he should be in the good race.

Is he part of your consideration at all?

All the candidates are part of our consideration.

Why did someone who has decline your invitation still part of your consideration?

It just didn’t come to our platform. We don’t have any grudges against him. We think it was an excellent opportunity for him to have come but he didn’t come. We don’t have any grudges or problems with his not coming. I would have a problem as a Northerner asking people not to trust him. We don’t have any problems with Kwankwaso. If he fits our judgment in terms of being the best, we will stand by him.

What does the North want specifically from the next President?

We want a Nigerian president irrespective of where he comes from, and irrespective of his faith. And the majority of Nigerians feel he understands Nigeria. And can fix it. Then we want a president who understands the problems of the north and has a programme that he can begin to implement from day one. We want a president that the North can have access to it. We will pick the best from the North and the rest of Nigeria. We want a president who will deal with the issue of insecurity, build on the infrastructure, and tackle the issue of out-of-school children. Address social problems that are existing and reintegrate social problems that are existing. And re-invent and allow Nigeria to facilitate a system to be Nigerians. Not Igbo or Hausa. We want a president that will rediscover Nigeria and allow us to discuss the country. Restructuring or dialogue. Anything. We want a president who will deal with the issue of banditry and kidnapping and Boko Haram.

Do you think the North will have challenged voting for anyone from the Southeast?

So, far it is only Obi we are talking about. He is the one most prominent on the ballot. Why not? The average Northerner is very sophisticated. He will choose what is right for him like everybody else. And the fire of IPOB should have been put out as evidence that anybody from the Southeast is serious about asking Nigerians for their mandate. People say why I don’t say the same about Atiku and Tinubu. I am saying the stakes are higher for somebody from that region. Somebody like Obi we want to see a serious de-escalation of the activities of IPOB. Everybody has a primary constituency whether you like it or not. That is why it is important. When I say this, it is not necessarily to say like some people have said call out Atiku Abubakar on Boko Haram.

Do you think that applies to the APC candidate?

The more people play the ethnic cards because everybody has an ethnic identity. If you keep harping on this issue, he is ours. He is Igbo, he is ours. He is Yoruba, he is ours. All you are going to do is to trigger tribal sentiment. That is all you are going to do. And people will line up behind people to see whether you will line up behind yours. And we don’t want that. We don’t want an ethnic president in this country. We don’t want a president elected based on his faith. We want a president who will be voted in because Nigerians will feel comfortable enough with confidence that he can fix the problems of this country. We are receding and retreating. Where we are now is very dangerous. All this endorsement based on faith and the basis of ethnicity is very damaging. It is not moving the country forward. It is just simply taking us back to 1964. Long before the military came in, we have a very good understanding of history. We have broken lots of bridges that should not be there. The North is just beginning to talk to the Southeast. There is a dialogue hoping on between the Northern groups and the Ohanaeze Ndi-Igbo. We don’t know where it will end. But it is good we are even talking.

What is the need for the dialogue?

It is because we have to build bridges. Some of it is political. Some of it is looking at what the country will look like. The consequences of the election are very important. We are not going to elect someone. This election is more than an election. It is a referendum on Nigeria. Where are the responsible people? Where are they? You must look at the build-up to the election and say, what is wrong? Don’t do this. You must look at the conduct of the election itself between the two elections. What happens?

What happens if you have a president and there are a lot of disputes despite not being your candidate?

So, talking at these levels of elites is very useful. If all we do is like we say let us allow the electoral process to produce the next president. Let us put as little hindrance as possible. Let us lower the insecurity situation. Let us talk to each other. Igbo leaders talked while Northern leaders talked about the need to respect each other. So, the huge number of Northerners in the South-East can say oh, we can have an election without necessitating to die in the process. The Southeast living in the North can say in their comfort, this is not a war but an election. So, those are the values of this discussion. And I think it is a good thing that is taking place. There is another forum that has representatives from Afenifere, PANDEF, Ohanaeze, ACF, and NEF, we are going to meet with the peace committee. These are prominent Nigerians who say listen, somebody has got to look after Nigeria. And that is a compatriot. Everybody is looking after its ethnic groups but who is looking after the country?

What does the body language of President Muhammadu Buhari suggest over a free and fair election in 2023?

I think the President’s idea of allowing INEC and the credibility of the election are too narrow. I am not going to interface with INEC processes. I am not going to decide or help to rig an election. I have given them everything that they want. And I am not interfering in anything. Even within his party, he is relatively aloof. I think his definition of I am going to support a credible election is too narrow. Credible elections won’t take place unless you radically improve the security environment. As we speak, a few communities are under the influence of non-state actors who can determine whether people can move or not. And they can have a major impact. What are you doing about that? You cannot approach an election with the assets and resources that you imagined that everything will fall in place with threats for people who go out on Election Day to vote. There are places INEC cannot deploy personnel and materials. If the president is serious about having credible elections, it could go beyond non-interference. It also involves improving access to elections by all Nigerians. Allowing a peaceful environment where votes will count and people will agree with the result of the election. It is just a few weeks to the election I am hoping even though he doesn’t have to reveal his plans. A lot of the people who are under the influence of kidnappers and bandits have cards. They want to vote. On the 25 of February, what kind of conditions will you create that will allow them to go and vote in peace and come back? Those are basic questions. And they are many. In Katsina, in his home state, and Kaduna, Niger, Zamfara, Sokoto, etc. There are communities where people cannot vote. I see his roles in a wider context than he is defining them.

Giving INEC all the money it wants is not enough to guarantee free, and fair elections without securing the electoral environment. And secure it sufficiently for every participant to participate in the election. And I am sure they have plans to deal with these issues because we have spent enough on our security. We are not exaggerating this because this is a reality. These are realities we live with every day in the North. So, if the president wants credible elections he must go beyond non-interference as well as funding.

Why did you speak so much in your article about possible rerun or runoff?

I am telling you if you look at all these scenarios that is one of the worst-case scenarios. The politicians will tell you we don’t need it. We will win out rightly. As you know runoff is decided by a simple majority. Politicians are exploring dangerous terrain. And deepening religion, and ethnicity, if you have a run-off they will be more pronounced. My personal feeling is that this will be a very serious challenge to the nation. But it is there but for a good reason.

Are you proud of how the North has voted in the past election? What is likely going to change this time?

The Northern voter is quite informed. He is like sheep. People just follow him. If you look at electoral history in the North. It is very interesting. We have never voted just together. Even when Buhari won. I think it was the highest when the North voted. His opposition also got the same 25% in 24 states. The Northerner voter will vote in his interest like every other voter. We made mistakes in the past. We have chosen people who were not the best. But listen our political process doesn’t always throw up the best. Our political process discourages the best from emerging. That is one of the sad elements for us. No matter how much you want good leadership, it has to be people with the money who will emerge and get the ticket. You choose from people who are tremendously rich or who have somebody’s mandate to contest. You cannot go out of that. The people who won primaries for governorship, House of Reps, and Senate could have spent millions or billions. And it is the same all over the country. So, Northerners are going to make the decision and they are severely restricted from people who are products of the old system. Or a few who want to come to the system. It is a system we have to change. A system where a few people recognise politics as a major avenue to acquire funds and resources basically and they are all over this country. We tell people now, don’t vote for parties. Vote for good candidates at all levels. This way you reduce the tendency to simply send people who just see politics as for their pockets. But l think the North will eventually take a decision. And, I can assure you we will be there with them. And we will do what is right for Nigeria and for whoever emerges. He must be a product of a credible process, every part of Nigeria must accept whoever wins as one. And those who have lost should accept that they have lost. And we must support him or her because they are going to lead this country through a very difficult time. It is very important.

Is this your position also accepted by the uneducated in the North? Because it appears only the educated are in bed with it?

We have many ways of talking to people. But I can tell you there is a substantial convergence by the Northerners on the need to be very careful about who we elect. Or we do agree on who he is. We owe nobody any apology. Because we will be excising the same right as others in other regions. We will say this is the person we feel will serve the interest of Nigeria and the North. And he should be supported. And we will not apologise for that.