Nigeria’s crude oil exports are expected to slide by about 14 per cent in March, as scheduled loadings for four key grades fall to roughly 793,000 barrels per day (bpd).
According to Reuters report, the projection is based on preliminary crude loading programmes which have highlighted renewed volatility in Nigeria’s export flows, despite ongoing efforts to stabilise output and boost foreign exchange inflows.
The projected March loadings compare with about 922,000 bpd scheduled for export in February, pointing to a notable month-on-month decline driven largely by sharp cutbacks in two major offshore grades.
Preliminary loading programmes show uneven movements across Nigeria’s four major crude oil grades, with modest gains in some grades failing to offset steep declines in others. The overall picture suggests weaker export volumes heading into March.
While Qua Iboe and Bonny Light show incremental gains, the substantial reductions in Bonga and Forcados volumes more than outweigh these increases, resulting in a lower overall export figure for March.
Nigeria’s crude oil loading schedules are often subject to significant month-to-month swings, reflecting a mix of operational, technical and market-related factors.
The combination of these factors helps explain why gains in lighter, onshore grades such as Qua Iboe and Bonny Light are not always sufficient to compensate for declines in larger offshore streams like Bonga and Forcados.
The projected drop in March crude exports comes at a sensitive time for Nigeria, as the country seeks to maximise oil production and foreign exchange earnings amid persistent economic pressures.
Crude oil remains Nigeria’s primary source of export revenue and a major contributor to government finances.
Lower export volumes, if sustained, could weigh on oil receipts and limit the fiscal benefits of any improvement in global oil prices.
This may have knock-on effects for budget implementation, external reserves and currency stability.
Cargoes may be rescheduled, added or deferred depending on operational developments and market conditions.
Nigeria’s crude oil export programmes are typically revised multiple times before final confirmation, meaning actual March exports could differ from current projections.
Also, Nigeria emerged as the top African exporter of crude oil to the United States in the first eight months of 2025.
