Nigerians and economy experts ponder over IMF prediction that Nigeria may not exit recession till 2023 as against earlier pronouncement by Nigeria’s Finance Minister with 2021 target. Experts in contrary view recommended Economic diversification, provision of adequate security as major indices that Nigeria needs for early exit from economic recession in 2021.
Professor Sarah Anyanwu of University of Abuja, who coincidentally is the President of Nigeria Economic Society in this interview, with Idu Jude and Andy Asemota, explained why IMF prediction should not be taken seriously with the condition that government must key in to hold the ladder for the SMEs as a major indicator to excel.
Q. It is no longer news that the IMF had disagreed with the minister of Finance, with the prediction that Nigeria will exit recession in 2021, rather 2023.
A. I think that it is wrong of any person or IMF to reject the prediction of the finance minister on Nigeria exiting recession in 2021 as against IMF 2023 prediction. What I can say is that the IMF is not in the position to decide how Nigeria will be exiting recession. Any country can exit recession within a year, depending on how it buckles up and quickly revamps its various sectors to complement other revenue generating sectors’ prediction. It is like that of a Doctor, who tells a man when his illness will disappear before diagnosis?
It is obvious that Nigeria depends only on oil for revenue generation and that it wholly operates a mono economy. That is basically why the economy suffers anytime the oil industry has problems. I believe that there are so many sectors that need to be revamped to generate huge revenue. Talk of technology sector, the Information technology sector, agriculture, mining sector, Transportation etc. then we can now talk of adequate security, quality education and physical infrastructure to enable products are moved to the market without hitches. Have you not noticed that a country with a good road transportation system, has a good economy already? It brings down the price of goods in the market, it brings easy connectivity and makes business easy to carry out.
Q. You talked about encouraging small and medium scale industries to boost the economy
A. As a matter of fact, it all depends on how the economic experts make haste to tackle the monster. I can say that paying greater attention to encouraging the small and medium scale industry is a panacea to a greater economy devoid of sliding into recession now and then.
Q. You mentioned insecurity as major contributor to Nigeria sliding to recession
A. Yes, and it is obvious that insecurity has contributed hugely to Nigeria going into recession. Practically, no investor, no manufacturer invests in a country with unstable security. For instance in Nigeria, whenever the news of insurgence breaks, the investors withdraw for the fear of losing their investments. In the same vein the stock market collapses and should such continue in a particular economy for a period of time, such economy is bound to slide.
Any economist should have seen it coming to Nigeria. The entire world knows about the insecurity in Nigeria and it has continued unabated till today. So, as it stands today no sane investor will bring a huge amount of money in such an economy. So unhealthy and like I said every sector of the economy must work optimally with good professional input by the economic team. Do you know that insecurity at various parts of the country has brought commercial agriculture to a halt? Farmers no longer go to farm and foodstuff now skyrocket on the daily bases. Each day, news of farmers being killed filter in and that scares away potential investors. You see it is the economy that suffers.
Q. Which other things do you think contributes to this economic downturn?
A. There are certain things we take for granted in Nigeria and these are the things that make the economy work effectively. In Nigeria here we have a lot of infrastructural decay such as bad roads, lack of electricity and such which turns off any good investor in an economy. Lack of good roads contributes to goods not getting to the market or the targeted audience.
Obviously, Nigerian agricultural industry has failed to improve over the years owing to proper planning for food security and preservation to attract foreign patronage. And this cut shot huge revenue that should have contributed immensely in revamping the economy. My observation over the years is that we are a wasteful nation and 80 percent of the farm produce is wasted due to lack of industries or preserving facilities. Some of the goods are not supposed to waste within the season. It is because of these reasons that farmers do not farm in commercial quantity anymore. So that is why we call on our president Buhari’s economic team to wake from their slumber to rescue the economy through various means. If I may ask, when will the country begin to export goods produced in Nigeria to other countries? We practically have become a consuming Nation with everything we need imported including toothpicks. These things inflict economic leakages and the only way to close the gap is to ensure that we make our industries work optimally.
Any country that wishes to be among economic powers should look inwardly and improve on revamping various industries for total diversification. This works effectively by ensuring that infrastructures are on ground such as good road networks to ensure free transportation across the country and beyond, by ensuring that the energy sector is booming with provision of regular electricity to power the industries. You will recall that Nigeria was once a hub for manufacturing companies in the 80s and early 90s; In those days our economy was better than what it is now. We have companies like liver brothers, Dunlop you name them. These companies pay loyalty to the Federal government of Nigeria and such revenue generation improves the economy. So the existing recession in 2021 is possible and why I am giving you all these, is to stress the much needed change for Nigeria’s economic team to get down for more work.
Q. From what we have seen so far, do you think the economic team is good enough to achieve this in 2021?
A. Well I won’t put it to them that they are not good individually because a lot of things are contributory to the country going into recession. And that is why I took my time to point out these areas that would help the economy grow. Not until these things are handled properly the economy will continue without improvement.
So, the economic team may have recommended these things to the government but on the other hand, needs the will power to look beyond oil and revamp the upcoming industries and more especially the small and medium scale industries, which are supposed to be the economic backbone for any Nation.
Q. Could you please throw more light on Insecurity?
A. Security plays a pivotal role in stabilizing the economy of any country and it seems that African leaders are yet to be exposed to these facts. You will recall during the administration of late president Umaru Yar’adua, his ability to negotiate with the Niger Delta militants helped restore peace at the oil rich region and that stabilized economy a lot and not until the present administration, with lots of insecurity problems leading to the country sliding into recession twice in a year.
It is obvious that several parts of the country known for potential commercial farming are left desolate since 2015 when Boko Haram emerged in Nigeria and other parts like Benue in 2017 till date. Benue State which is said to be the food basket of the nation is currently struggling with insecurity as farmers have left farms due to incessant attacks in the farm. Recently it was in Borno state where over 45 farmers were attacked by the insurgents and had their throats sliced. So already, Nigeria is having food crises with a bag of rice sold at N35,000.00 a bag, which is above 30,000.00 minimum wage.
So adequate security is virtually the number one thing to consider for a sustainable economy to emerge. And I would say unequivocally that the economic team goes back to the drawing board and tackles it headlong. South Africa also is currently in recession but the government has assembled the best of hands invited across the globe including our own Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, to resuscitate the economy. It was a swift reaction by the South African government and that there is nothing wrong in Nigerian government reviewing its economic team to exit recession in 2021, it is possible if all our economic sectors can be handled properly and with proper economic laws to achieve sustainable growth, because a stitch in time saves nine.
