By Anthony Otaru, Abuja
With barely weeks to the March 31, 2026, deadline set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), economic experts and financial analysts have warned that several Nigerian banks may be forced into mergers, licence downgrades or outright liquidation if they fail to meet the new minimum capital requirements.
The CBN’s ongoing banking sector recapitalisation programme mandates international banks to maintain a minimum paid-up capital of ₦500 billion, while national banks are required to hold ₦200 billion, excluding retained earnings.
The policy, introduced to strengthen financial system resilience, has already begun reshaping the structure of Nigeria’s banking industry.
Industry checks indicate that no fewer than 14 banks are yet to fully meet the ₦500 billion threshold, placing them under intense regulatory and market pressure as the deadline approaches.
These include First City Monument Bank (FCMB), Unity Bank, Keystone Bank, TajBank, Standard Chartered Bank, Patalex Bank, SunTrust Bank, and several merchant and non-interest banks, such as Coronation Merchant Bank, Rano Merchant Bank, and Alternative Bank.
By contrast, 19 banks have already crossed the CBN benchmark, securing their operating licences under the new regime.
Among them are Access Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank, United Bank for Africa (UBA), First Bank, Fidelity Bank, and several others that have completed capital raising exercises.
Data from Augusto & Co., a credit rating agency, show that the Nigerian banking system has raised over ₦2.5 trillion through recapitalisation efforts over 19 months, from January 2024 to July 2025.
Of this amount, ₦1.7 trillion was raised in 2024 by 16 banks, while another ₦800 billion was secured in the first seven months of 2025.
*Economists warn of consolidation, regulatory sanctions
Commenting on the development, renowned economist and former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, said banks that miss the March 31, 2026, deadline would inevitably face severe regulatory actions.
“Failure to meet the recapitalisation deadline will attract consequences ranging from forced mergers to licence downgrades or even liquidation.
“While the process may cause short-term pain, it is necessary to build a stronger and more resilient banking system capable of withstanding economic shocks,” Ekpo said.
Also speaking, a renowned economist, Prof Sheriffdeen Tella, expressed confidence that most struggling banks would survive through consolidation rather than collapse.
“I am confident that none of the banks will simply disappear. Many will end up in merger and acquisition arrangements, which is ultimately healthier for the financial system,” he noted.
Meanwhile, Lead Director of the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), Eze Onyekpere, cautioned the apex bank to ensure that depositors and investors are adequately protected throughout the process.
“The CBN must ensure this exercise is a win-win for banks, depositors, and investors. Safeguarding funds is crucial not just for confidence in the banking sector but also for overall economic growth,” Onyekpere said.
As of January 2026, 22 out of Nigeria’s 34 licensed banks have secured their operating status under the new recapitalisation framework.
Several others have opted for strategic alternatives, including mergers, acquisitions, and licence adjustments.
Notably, Unity Bank and Providus Bank are in advanced stages of a merger expected to create a top-tier lender.
At the same time, Titan Trust Bank has completed its integration with Union Bank to strengthen its capital base.
Some institutions, such as Nova Bank, have chosen to downgrade to regional banking licences and focus on niche markets as a survival strategy.
In the non-interest banking segment, Islamic lenders, including Jaiz Bank, TajBank, and Lotus Bank, have met their respective ₦20 billion capital requirements, reinforcing confidence in niche banking models.
With fewer than three months remaining, analysts say the final phase of recapitalisation will be defined by last-minute mergers, private equity injections, and strategic restructuring, moves expected to leave Nigeria with a leaner, stronger, and better-capitalised banking sector.
