By Igho Akeregha, Olusegun Olanrewaju, Ben Ogbemudia, David Lawani, and
Cajetan Mmuta
With the 2023 general election barely 13 months away, the clamour for the rotational presidency between the North and South is gaining momentum across the political divide. The North, from all indications, has a game plan with which it intends to hold on to power post-Buhari era.

With the 2023 general election barely 13 months away, the clamour for rotational presidency between the North and South is gaining momentum across the political divide. The North, from all indications, has a game plan with which it intends to hold on to power post-Buhari era.

In a futuristic strategy on how the primaries of the two leading parties, the PDP and APC may go, power blocs in the region have perfected plans to ensure that two northern candidates emerge in the parties.

The APC for example has started courting leading opposition figures, in the event that should they fail to get their party’s nomination they will form arrow heads of the battle to retain power in the region.

There are also plots to sponsor “as many as possible surrogate presidential aspirants in the South, to whittle down their bargaining power.” In the next few months, impeccable sources told this newspaper,
“Many other candidates will emerge from the South. But the real game plan will be to make them self-destruct to pave way for a northern flag bearer.”

There is muted tension as the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is yet to hold its national convention, unlike the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that held its convention before the end of last year. Even as most Nigerians differ on which region between the North and South should produce the next president, the APC have sustained the anxiety by keeping in the wraps, where they intend to zone the presidential slot, while the PDP has left it open.

Before now, there has always been an unwritten ‘understanding’ between politicians of both the North and South on zoning or rotation of the presidency, particularly since the inception of the Fourth Republic in 1999. Though not constitutionally backed by any law, the political elite believes that the arrangement remains the best for the country’s socio-cultural and religious diversity.

Though they often argue that zoning is not a right, they hold that itpresents a privilege until it is enshrined in the constitution of the parties.

A former member of the House of Representatives, Dr Samson Osagie, told ThisNigeria that the various political parties should endeavour to implement and allow internal democracy to prevail all the time so that there will be balance for all contending forces in the polity.

He emphasised that rotational presidency is not a bad idea, saying it will help to strengthen sense of unity because Nigeria is a heterogeneous country. According to him: “The idea of rotational presidency is ideal in a heterogeneous and diverse country to assuage the feelings of marginalisation among ethnic nationalities. However, its enforcement is cumbersome as the Constitution does not permit discrimination against any segment of the country in the leadership recruitment process.

“Political parties and gladiators have the responsibility to implement their internal democracy strategies to balance the various contending forces in the country. As expected, some stakeholders have kicked against zoning on the ground that whoever rules the country should be competent and not because the individual comes from a particular ethnic group, while others are of the view that zoning is a political instrument for fostering unity in a diverse nation like Nigeria. This school of thought believe that in a plural country like Nigeria, there is nothing wrong with power rotation.

Two northerners, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar and current governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello, have declared their interest for the presidency in 2023. A former governor of Kwara State and ex-Senate President, Bukola Saraki, is another northern aspirant showing a strong interest in the presidency from the opposition camp, PDP.

Others from the North harbouring presidential ambition have not openly declared their aspiration, but it is believed the numbers will increase if the rotational debate takes on some balance of weight.

In the south, Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos state, has announced his bid for the presidency in the Presidential Villa, while on a visit to President Muhammadu Buhari. The billboards of incumbent Vice President Yemi Osinbajo is sprouting all over Abuja, and is very conspicuous on the Airport Road in the nation’s capital. “It’s time to get to work”, one of the billboards announces. Many interpret this as his direct leap into the presidential race.

Others who have announced are Ebonyi State governor, Dave Umahi, a former governor of Imo State, Senator Rochas Okorocha, and publisher of Ovation magazine, Dele Momodu.

There is also a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Prof. Kingsley Moghalu, who is launching a second bid for the presidency after his first effort in 2019.

With list of aspirants from the North and South who are jostling for the number one position still growing, a politician, Kassim Afegbua, opines that, as a country with many ethnic nationalities, it is important to understand that there has to be a kind of balancing in the country’s politics for there to be some level of national stability and cohesion that will help the country grow.

“So, with this kind of arrangement that we have, six political zones – three in the North, three in the South, the expectation will be thatwhen the North takes its turn, the South should take its turn, no matter the party.

“In 2023, with Buhari finishing his eight years in office, the two dominant parties must as a matter of necessity, justice, fairness and equity, look down South in choosing their presidential flag-bearers.

“Within the PDP, we had Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the former Vice-president who stood for the party in 2019. With the kind of performance he put up, very strong one, and we were unable to get it, it is expected of him to allow the South to take its shot at the presidency.

“So, my point is just to alert him as an individual, to alert the country as a nation that irrespective of the internal dynamics of the PDP, those of us from the South have our eyes wide open. We want the presidency or nothing.

“As we speak, the South wants the presidency, the APC and PDP should
give us the presidency. Anybody, we are viable, godly people from the South. It is our turn, don’t take it away from us. The South-East is my number one consideration, South-South is my second choice. South-West should rest for now.”

Meanwhile, one of the governors from the north, Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa State, has said, amidst the contending demands, that the south
should be given the presidential slot. He explained that as a beneficiary of rotation in emerging governor of Nasarawa State, the best person from the zone should emerge as the nation’s president.

His words: “I believe in the rotational presidency in Nigeria, I strongly believe in that. This is my view; it is not the view of the All Progressives Congress (APC) governors.”

But Kaduna State governor, Nasir el-Rufai advised that no northerner should contest for the presidency in 2023. He had maintained this as his personal opinion on what has become a divisive subject, dismissing insinuations that he was interested in the race.

El-Rufai said: “In Nigerian politics, there is a system of rotation, in which everyone agrees that if the North rules for eight years, the South will rule for eight years.

“That is why I came out and said that after President Buhari has been in office for eight years, no northerner should run for office. Let the Southerners also have eight years. If you look at how I am, I don’t take anyone to work with me from the zone he came from.”

However, a member of the PDP and spokesperson to Atiku Abubakar, Segun Sowunmi, said if the PDP was desirous of winning the presidency, it should settle for no other candidate but the former VP. Atiku, he said, has the wherewithal to run the country.

Conversely, the Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello has dismissed callsfor a rotational presidency on the ground that it has outlived its usefulness. Bello, who is mobilising mostly the women and youths to support his ambition to lead the country, argues that what should be the determining factor in the selection of the next President in 2023 election should be competence and not where the person comes from. He also said that he would revive and actualise the 1993 hope that was dashed.

“For once, let’s get Nigeria fixed. We have practised a seemingly rotational presidency since 1999 to date, let us evaluate our successes or achievements from this seeming rotational presidency between then and now.

The clamour for rotational presidency is angling some traction, even within the two contending regions. Out of three zones that make up the southern region, only the South-East is yet to produce the president.

South-South produced former President Goodluck Jonathan, who was in office for six years; while South-West produced Olusegun Obasanjo from Ogun State, who completed the constitutional term limit of eight years in office.

A member representing Owan Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, and Chairman of Basic Education Committee, Prof. Julius Ihonvbere, warned of the likely consequences should power is not zoned to the South, saying no zone doesn’t have qualified candidates but let a
quality one emerge from there.

He said the idea of rotational presidency considering how the country has been designated to be is very important.

Ihonvbere said, “If it is not zoned to the south, there may be serious problems. Zoning of course, means that a qualitative candidate should emerge. Of course, where there are contradiction, inequalities and primordial proclivities, rotation is the only way to ensure and assure fairness and socio-political justice.

• The argument for Southern presidency
Apart from darted support from earlier columns in the northern leadership political stakeholders and socio-political groups in the south have been calling on political parties to zone their presidential tickets to the south.

Last September, southern governors unanimously agreed that the 2023 presidency must be zoned to their region for the sake of justice and fairness.

The governors also threatened to boycott any party that presents a northern aspirant as its presidential candidate for the 2023 presidential election. But despite the threat, National PDP spokesman, Debo Ologunagba, said the party would not stop anyone from contesting on the basis of age or where they came from.

The inference drawn from that was that northern presidential hopefuls like Atiku Abubakar; Bukola Saraki; Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, his counterpart in Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, a former governor of Kano State, Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso, are free to contest the PDP’s presidential primary. Some of these presidential hopefuls are yet to publicly declare their intention to join the 2023 presidential race. Saraki has.

• South moves to truncate plan
Unlike 2019 when the PDP ceded its presidential ticket to the north, there is no consensus yet as to which of the zones will produce the party’s flag bearer in the 2023 presidential election.

Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike, his Akwa Ibom State counterpart, Udom Emmanuel, as well as former Senate President, Anyim Pius Anyim, are some of the PDP chieftains bent on having the leadership of the party look in the direction of the South in 2023.

Governor Wike, it was learnt, has been reaching out to other PDP governors from the North on the need to reciprocate the support of the South, as demonstrated in the race to the Port Harcourt Presidential convention in 2018.

The 2018 convention, which produced Atiku as the flag bearer, had the Rivers State governor openly rooting for his Sokoto State counterpart, Aminu Tambuwal, who finished second behind Atiku.

From the moment the former VP emerged winner, Wike queued behind him, urging party members to work together in the interest of the party. A senior aide to the governor who does not want his name in print disclosed that Governor Wike was preaching fairness, equity and justice.

• ‘Change of trajectory’
Unlike 2019 when the PDP ceded its presidential ticket to the north, there is no consensus yet as to which of the zones will produce the party’s flag bearer in the 2023 presidential election. Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike, his Akwa Ibom State counterpart, Udom Emmanuel, as well as former Senate President, Anyim Pius Anyim, are some of the PDP chieftains bent on having the leadership of the party look in the direction of the South in 2023.

Governor Wike, it was learnt, has been reaching out to other PDP governors from the North on the need to reciprocate the support of the South, as demonstrated in the race to the Port Harcourt Presidential convention in 2018. The 2018 convention, which produced Atiku as the flag bearer, had the Rivers State governor openly rooting for his Sokoto State counterpart, Aminu Tambuwal, who finished second behind Atiku.

From the moment the former VP emerged winner, Wike queued behind him, urging party members to work together in the interest of the party. A senior aide to the governor who does not want his name in print disclosed that Governor Wike was preaching fairness, equity and justice.

• Why Buni is courting Atiku, other opposition figures
Perspective began to change over the weekend when northern kingpins began to show a new body language on zoning.

Atiku met with Katsina State governor and Senate President, Ahmad Lawan, Ayobe State governor and chairman of the APC caretaker committee, Mai Mala Buni, at the burial of 85-year-old mother of a Katsina businessman, Dahiru Mangal, on Saturday. He also posted photos of interactions with Lawan, Buni, Masari- a post that was given political connotation.

Regarded as Katsina’s richest man, Mangal is the Chairman of Afdin Group, owners of Max Air, Afdin Petroleum, Afdin Construction, among others. Meanwhile, despite calls for southern presidency growing in the South, there is a belief that the North is still angling to keep its well-known geographical advantage.

Its three northern zones and population far outguns the smaller states of the South. President Muhammadu Buhari’s party, the APC has allegedly been playing the ostrich in choosing a successor. The opposition PDP, has not foreclosed northerners from joining the presidential race even with the loudest grunts from the South-East zone.

The PDP has allowed “every persons from every part of the country to be allowed to contest”. It categorical affirms that northern aspirants won’t be stopped from contesting. The PDP current chairman is a northerner. And so, the main opposition party in the country has said it would leave the ticket open for all aspirants, “irrespective of their states or geopolitical zones”. This position contradicts the clamour for power shift to the southern part of the country.

• Plot to sponsor surrogate presidential aspirants
While the northern forces are putting their houses in order to run for the race, some southern ‘agents’ are aiding the pyre. In fact, it is believed in some quarters that some of those campaigning for the presidency in the south are actually angling for the vice presidency in the long run.

Before the APC produces it candidate, the PDP is shadowing hard on candidacy. “Our target is to win the election,” a PDP Board of Trustees (BoT) member from the South-West, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said an opposition party that wants to win an election “may not prioritise zoning, unlike a ruling party that should ensure power rotation”.

He said the PDP would have to ensure the emergence of its “best aspirant that could guarantee its victory at the poll regardless of who other parties present”. PDP Chairman in Adamawa State, Tahir Shehu, described as a good development the lifting of the restriction on zoning of the presidency within the party.

Shehu, a loyalist of Atiku, in a telephone interview with one of our correspondents on Friday evening, said Nigerians were looking forward to the party to rescue them. Governor Bala Mohammed has joined the northern echo, saying, “It’s the turn of the North to produce President”.
Mohammed said it is the turn of the North to produce the president, adding that the presidency was not for any section of the country “but for everyone”.

A former Deputy National Chairman of the PDP, Chief Bode George, finishes the matter, “God will teach us what to do.”

But, a chieftain of the PDP in Edo State, Kenneth Imasuangbon, in supporting the call for power shift to the South in the 2023 election, said. “I am not in APC and cannot speak for it. But they are saying that President Buhari is doing his eight years in office and after the eight years the APC should allow the slot to return to the South. So, to that extent the slot should return to the South.

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“The PDP where I belong to, we have had 16 years of participation in governance, Southwest did eight years, South-South did six years and
north did, two years, making it 16 years. It’s fair and proper that the North should have its turn with the PDP where I belong to,” he said.