By Cajetan Mmuta and Anthony Otaru
Nigeria’s recently announced 3.98 per cent GDP growth for Q3 2025 may look impressive on paper, but economists warn it has done little to lift the living standards of millions battling one of the country’s worst cost-of-living crises in decades.
Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria recorded its strongest quarterly growth since early 2023, driven by ICT, financial services, real estate and a mild recovery in oil output.
But the reality on the streets tells a different story: food prices remain historically high, household purchasing power is collapsing, and the country’s manufacturing base is weakening under the weight of inflation, energy costs and currency instability.
Experts from the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) and leading academics say the growth figures reflect reforms and improved investor sentiment, but have not translated into better living conditions.
According to them, the problem is simple: “The economy is expanding, but household welfare is shrinking. Nigerians are not feeling this growth,” one NESG analyst noted.
They argue that inflation, particularly food inflation, transportation costs, weak wage growth and rural poverty continue to neutralise any gains from macro-economic reforms.
*Manufacturing ‘barely breathing’ at 1.25%
Experts warn that despite headline GDP expansion, the manufacturing sector grew by only 1.25 per cent in Q3 2025, a sign that producers are struggling with input costs, power shortages and foreign exchange volatility.
“Manufacturing remains fragile,” CPPE analysts noted.
“High operational costs and dependence on imported inputs are strangling factories.”
They added that growth remains urban-centric, while rural populations, small producers and low-income families continue to feel excluded.
The analysts listed three persistent threats: “Debt servicing swallowing public revenue, leaving little room for investment; currency volatility, which continues to undermine planning; weak public spending capacity due to limited fiscal space.”
A former Presidential Economic Adviser, Dr Doyin Salami, argued that the GDP numbers should not distract from the reality of deepening poverty.
Speaking at the Foursquare Gospel Church Annual Public Lecture, he warned:
“Poverty is not just about income; it is about dignity. Nigeria must adopt hard reforms, not cosmetic fixes.”
Salami stressed the need for reliable data, security, electricity, quality education and a reform-minded political system.
He also proposed a seven-year tenure for elected officials to allow long-term planning.
Renowned economist Prof Sheriffdeen Tella called for diversification into tech, agriculture, manufacturing, and digital infrastructure to reduce dependence on oil.
Also, Professor Akpan Ekpo advised the government to prioritise human capital, policy stability, SME growth, anti-corruption reforms, affordable credit and targeted fiscal policies to ensure inclusive development.
Similarly, Agricultural economist, Prof Agharese Osifo, said Nigerians’ lived experience contradicts the optimistic macro narrative.
“Inflation has driven up food prices so severely that low-income households can no longer afford basic needs.”
He recalled that food inflation hit 35.4% in January 2024, the highest in 23 years, following the removal of fuel subsidies and the naira’s flotation.
While prices of some staples like rice are easing due to seasonal harvests and smuggling, he warned that “Poultry product prices remain higher than last year, and many households are sliding deeper into poverty.”
Osifo urged the government to direct the savings from subsidy removal into rural health, education and social protection.
He described the rise in Nigeria’s foreign reserves to $42.03 billion—the highest since 2019—as encouraging but quickly noted that the Excess Crude Account (ECA) has collapsed to just $535,823, down from over $20 billion in 2008.
Osifo highlighted troubling trends: “Manufacturing GDP share has fallen from 8.01% in 2024 to 7.81% in 2025; Textile imports rose 92% in 2024 due to naira devaluation; Minimum wage of N70,000 cannot sustain a family; GDP per capita collapsed from $2,019 (2020) to $835 (2024) — a 58.6% decline.”
“The Naira has stabilised but remains extremely weak,” he said. “At N1,400 to the dollar, many businesses will continue to die.”
He noted that while the government claims Nigeria now exports more than it imports, this is misleading:
“People cannot afford to import because the exchange rate has priced them out, not because production is booming.”
*You cannot grow an economy in turmoil— Umeagbalasi
Human rights advocate Comrade Emeka Umeagbalasi, BoT Chairman of InterSociety, accused the government of projecting “artificial reality” while ignoring structural decay.
“The Nigerian economy cannot grow meaningfully for fifty years if the present trajectory continues,” he warned.
“Economic projections will never match reality when insecurity is widespread.”
He argued that without peace, stable markets, functional institutions and transparent use of revenue, GDP growth will remain disconnected from citizens’ welfare.
Umeagbalasi criticised the government’s dependence on borrowing and the absence of productive investment: “You cannot call this growth when businesses are shutting down, and the exchange rate dictates the fate of households.”
