An x-ray of Tinubu’s romance with China

By Rekpene Bassey

The burgeoning relationship between Nigeria and China under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu deserves significant interest and debate. This feature x-rays the historical context and current dynamics shaping this relationship. The essay will expound on the rationale behind Tinubu’s strategic shift towards China, the underlying currents influencing this move, and its short- and long-term implications for Nigeria, particularly its relations with the United States.

It is essential to revisit the historical context of Nigeria-China relations to understand Tinubu’s current diplomatic inclinations.

The late General Sani Abacha, known for his fervent commitment to Nigeria’s national security, exemplified this during the Nigerian-Cameroonian crisis over the Bakassi Peninsula. Abacha’s strategic military alliance with China was a calculated move to counter France’s support for Cameroon and secure Nigeria’s territorial integrity. Subsequent political developments and international interventions rendered this military pact inactive.

Since then, China has maintained a steadfast and pragmatic approach to its relations with Nigeria, focusing on mutual economic benefits and strategic interests. Unlike the United States, which often emphasizes human rights and anti-corruption measures, China adopts a more hands-off approach to internal political matters, making it an attractive partner for Nigeria’s political elite.

President Tinubu’s recent engagement with China at the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) signifies a renewed and intensified diplomatic effort to strengthen bilateral ties. The rationale behind this move is multifaceted.

Economically, China offers substantial investments in infrastructure, technology, and resource exploitation, aligning with Nigeria’s development goals. Politically, China’s non-interference policy provides a comfortable space for Nigeria to navigate its internal affairs without external pressures.

Several underlying currents are shaping this evolving relationship. Firstly, China’s strategic interest in Nigeria’s vast mineral resources, including oil, natural gas, and rare earth minerals, drives its engagement. The Chinese government’s collaboration with powerful local stakeholders facilitates access to these resources, often bypassing stringent regulatory frameworks.

Secondly, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aligns with Nigeria’s infrastructure development ambitions. Chinese investments in roads, railways, ports, and telecommunications are transforming Nigeria’s economic landscape, fostering growth and connectivity. This synergy enhances Nigeria’s strategic importance in China’s broader geopolitical agenda.

Moreover, Nigeria’s domestic political landscape plays a crucial role. Tinubu’s administration seeks to diversify its foreign partnerships to reduce dependency on Western nations, particularly the United States. By strengthening ties with China, Nigeria aims to leverage alternative sources of economic and military support, thereby enhancing its negotiating power on the global stage.

Tinubu’s pivot towards China will likely yield significant economic benefits in the short term. Increased Chinese investments in critical sectors will stimulate job creation, infrastructural development, and technological advancement.

The success of FOCAC and broader partnership engagements, as highlighted by the former presidential spokesperson, Ajuri Ngelale, underscores the positive trajectory of Nigeria-China relations.

However, this shift also carries potential risks. China’s focus on resource extraction could exacerbate environmental degradation and socio-economic disparities. Moreover, the influx of Chinese labor and goods might undermine local industries, leading to economic dependencies that could be detrimental in the long run.

The long-term implications of Tinubu’s romance with China are profound and complex. On the one hand, sustained Chinese investments could transform Nigeria into a regional economic powerhouse, enhancing its global standing and influence. Developing critical infrastructure and technological capabilities will bolster Nigeria’s economic resilience and competitiveness.

On the other hand, deepening ties with China may strain Nigeria’s relationship with the United States. The US has historically been a significant ally, providing military aid, economic assistance, and diplomatic support. A perceived shift towards China could lead to a realignment of US foreign policy, potentially reducing American support for Nigeria.

Furthermore, while China’s non-interference policy might be appealing in the short term, it might limit Nigeria’s capacity to address critical governance issues. Without pressure to tackle corruption and human rights violations, Nigeria could entrench systemic challenges, undermining long-term stability and development.

Nigeria’s potential overreliance on Chinese investment and technology could raise concerns about debt sustainability. Instances of debt distress in other countries that have participated in China’s BRI highlight the risks of accumulating substantial debt under less transparent terms.

Additionally, China’s strategic objectives in Nigeria may sometimes align with Nigeria’s long-term national interests. China’s focus on resource extraction and infrastructure development might prioritize Chinese commercial interests over Nigeria’s broader developmental goals, leading to an unbalanced relationship.

In light of these factors, Nigeria must balance its burgeoning relationship with China by maintaining strong ties with other global powers, especially the United States. The U.S. offers a complementary partnership emphasising governance, human rights, and institutional development, which is crucial for sustainable growth and stability.

President Tinubu’s strategic engagement with China reflects a pragmatic approach to Nigeria’s economic and geopolitical ambitions. While the immediate benefits of this relationship are evident, it is essential to navigate the underlying currents and potential risks carefully. Balancing relations with China and the United States will be crucial for Nigeria’s long-term prosperity and global standing.

By leveraging the strengths of both partnerships, Nigeria can chart a path towards sustainable development, security, and sovereignty. Ensuring that economic growth is inclusive and environmentally sustainable while strengthening democratic institutions and governance will be key to maximizing the benefits of these international relationships.

Ultimately, President Tinubu’s diplomatic strategy must be anchored in a comprehensive vision for Nigeria’s future that integrates economic growth, social development, and national security within a robust framework of international cooperation. This balanced approach will enable Nigeria to harness the opportunities presented by its relationships with China and the United States, ensuring the nation’s prosperous and stable future.

*Rekpene Bassey is the President of the African Council on Narcotics (ACON) and an expert in Security and Drug Prevention.