By Lemmy Ughegbe, Ph.D
Three years ago, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office on the crest of one of the most consequential promises in Nigeria’s democratic history: the promise to renew hope.
He inherited a nation burdened by economic distortions, mounting debt obligations, declining oil revenues, insecurity and widespread public frustration. He also inherited a political culture that had become increasingly comfortable postponing difficult decisions.
Three years later, Nigerians remain sharply divided on his stewardship. Supporters see a courageous reformer willing to confront structural problems previous administrations avoided.
However, critics see an administration whose reforms, however well-intentioned, have imposed extraordinary hardship on ordinary citizens.
Both arguments contain elements of truth, which is why the most important question on this third anniversary is not whether Tinubu has succeeded or failed.
It is whether Nigeria and Nigerians are better off today than they were on May 29, 2023. To fairly assess the administration, one must first acknowledge the condition of the country before Tinubu’s arrival.
Nigeria’s economy was weighed down by fuel subsidies that consumed enormous public resources. Multiple exchange rate regimes distorted investment decisions and encouraged speculation. Government finances were increasingly constrained, while oil production had declined significantly from historical levels.
Few serious analysts disputed that reforms were necessary. The disagreement was always about timing, sequencing and the ability of ordinary Nigerians to absorb the inevitable pain.
Tinubu chose to confront the problem immediately. His announcement, ending the fuel subsidy on inauguration day, became one of the most consequential policy decisions in contemporary Nigerian history.
Subsequently, the administration liberalised the foreign exchange market and embarked on broader fiscal reforms to improve government revenues and restore investor confidence.
From a macroeconomic perspective, there have been notable gains. State governments now receive significantly higher allocations from the Federation Account than they did before subsidy removal. Public revenues have improved.
The multiple exchange rate system that distorted economic activity for years has largely disappeared. Oil production has shown signs of recovery from some of the lows witnessed before 2023.
The administration has also pursued reforms to strengthen local government autonomy and improve tax administration.
Those are not insignificant achievements. Indeed, supporters argue that without these reforms, Nigeria’s economic challenges would have become even more severe. That argument deserves serious consideration. Yet governance is ultimately experienced not through economic theory but through everyday reality. And it is here that the administration faces its greatest challenge.
For many ordinary Nigerians, life feels harder today than it did three years ago. Food prices have risen dramatically. Transportation costs have increased.
Housing expenses have climbed. The purchasing power of wages has declined sharply. Families that previously managed modestly now struggle to meet basic needs. The average Nigerian does not evaluate economic policy through budget speeches, investor reports or fiscal projections.
The average Nigerian evaluates government through the marketplace. Through the price of rice. Through transportation fares. Through electricity bills. Through school fees. Through rent. And on those measures, many citizens feel poorer, not more prosperous.
This contradiction sits at the heart of Tinubu’s presidency. Some macroeconomic indicators appear healthier. Many households do not. That does not necessarily mean the reforms were wrong. But it does mean that reforms alone cannot be the final measure of success. People do not eat reforms. They eat outcomes.
This is why the next phase of the administration may prove more important than the first three years.
The President can reasonably argue that he confronted problems previous administrations delayed. He can claim, with some justification, that difficult medicine was necessary. But medicine is prescribed to produce recovery. Citizens eventually expect relief. That expectation is entirely legitimate.
The security situation presents a similarly mixed picture. There have been operational successes against criminal and insurgent groups. Security agencies continue to record tactical victories, while government officials point to improved coordination across several theatres of operation. Yet insecurity remains a major concern for millions of Nigerians.
Kidnappings persist. Communities remain vulnerable. Farmers still face threats in several regions. Recent incidents, including the abduction of teachers and students in Oyo State, remind the nation that security challenges remain far from resolved.
Conflict-monitoring organisations continue to document significant levels of violence across the country, underscoring the scale of the challenge confronting the administration. Data compiled by organisations such as the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project continue to paint a sobering picture of insecurity affecting communities across Nigeria.
Without security, economic progress becomes difficult to sustain. Investment follows stability. Development follows confidence. Prosperity follows security.
Politically, however, Tinubu’s administration has demonstrated remarkable resilience.
Despite implementing some of the most painful economic measures in recent memory, the government remains politically stable. The ruling party continues to dominate the political landscape. Opposition parties remain fragmented. The President has largely retained control of the political narrative.
That itself is a significant political achievement. But history is often kinder to outcomes than intentions. Nigerians will ultimately judge this administration not by the boldness of its reforms but by their impact on ordinary lives. Did poverty decline? Did insecurity reduce? Did businesses grow? Did living standards improve? Did young people find greater opportunities? Did families experience genuine relief?
These questions will define Tinubu’s legacy far more than policy announcements. Three years into his presidency, the verdict therefore remains unfinished.
The administration deserves credit for confronting some of Nigeria’s longstanding structural distortions. It also bears responsibility for ensuring that the benefits of those reforms eventually reach ordinary citizens. That is the challenge before the President today.
The debate is no longer whether reforms were necessary. The debate is whether Nigerians are beginning to feel the benefits. Three years after taking office, President Tinubu can reasonably claim that he confronted problems many before him preferred to postpone. He can argue, with some justification, that difficult reforms were unavoidable. But citizens can equally argue that the burden of those reforms has been painfully heavy and that relief has been slower than promised.
That is why the debate over the Tinubu presidency remains unresolved. The administration has spent three years asking Nigerians to endure. The next challenge is to convince them that the endurance was worth it. Because while promises may win elections, only outcomes secure a place in history.
Dr Lemmy Ughegbe, FIMC, CMC
lemmyughegbeofficial@gmail.com
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