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APC presidential primary: The endgame

By Igho Akeregha, Olusegun Olanrewaju, Ben Ogbemudia, David Lawani, and Ben Adoga
The race for the presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2023 election continued to heat the polity yesterday with Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, National Leader of the party, Bola Tinubu, Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi, interfiled moves to garner support for the party’s national convention slated for Monday and Tuesday.

There was drama yesterday at a meeting in Abuja of the presidential aspirants from the South-West geopolitical zone which ended in deadlock as it failed to produce a consensus candidate.

Eleven northern governors led by its Chairman, Senator Abubakar Bagudu, Governor of Kebbi State, had on Saturday withdrawn and urged northern aspirants to withdraw from the race throwing the space open to southern aspirants.

In his remark during a dinner with the President, the governor stated that since the President will be completing his eight years of two-term of four years each, it will only behove the Northern leaders to consider relinquishing the power to the Southern region in the interest of fairness and equity.

This came just as the National Chairman of the ruling APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, upturned the report of the Presidential Screening Committee (PSC) that disqualified 10 out of the 23 aspirants jostling for the party’s presidential ticket.

He said the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party has not disqualified any of the 23 aspirants that appeared before the John Odigie Oyegun-led PSC.

By the pronouncement, those cleared to contest the party primary are Senate President, Ahmad Lawan, Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State, Jigawa State Governor, Mohammed Badaru, and former Zamfara State governor, Senator Ahmed Yerima.

The presidential aspirants from the south include the Vice-President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo; the APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and the Ebonyi State Governor, Dave Umahi.

They also include Pastor Tunde Bakare, the Cross River State Governor, Prof Ben Ayade; his Ekiti State counterpart, Dr Kayode Fayemi, an ex-Minister of State, Education, Emeka Nwajiuba, and former President of the Senate, Senator Ken Nnamani.

Also on the list are Senator Ajayi Borroffice; the only female aspirant, B. Uju Kennedy Ohanenye, Pastor Nicholas Felix Nwagbo; former Speaker of Representative, Dimeji Bankole; former Minister of Information, Chief Ikeobasi Mokelu and Mr Tein Jack Rich.

They also include a former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi; a former Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Godswill Akpabio; former Minister of Science, Technology, and Innovation, Dr Ogbonnaya Onu; a former Imo State governor, Senator Rochas Okorocha and former Ogun State Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun.

•Battle for succession
There were reports that the president is favourably disposed of that some successors like former Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba, are also angling to succeed the president when he finally hangs his gloves at the end of his tenure.

But Osinbajo is considered a front-runner on the grounds of loyalty and discipline.

However, Ekiti State Governor, Dr Kayode Fayemi, National Leader of APC, and former governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinubu, are in last-minute manoeuvres to garner support for their candidature.

Apart from his financial muscle to run for the presidency, Tinubu is considered a very strong force because of his political followership, especially in the South-West and the whole of the North.

For Fayemi, the sellable points for him are that he is refined and independent-minded. He is also the current chairman of the Progressive Governors Forum. Reports have it that the state governors are favourably disposed to having him as the next president because he is concerned reachable and accessible.

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Fayemi has always been the go-between the governors and the president. Many people see him as one individual who has a broad mind of his own. He was a member of the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) which fought the military through different means to return Nigeria to democracy.

Also in contention, despite the position of the 11 northern governors who suggested the power should shift to the South for the sake of justice and equity, is the Senate President, Ahmad Lawan, who is still pushing to emerge as the candidate of the party.

Meanwhile, in a recent nationwide survey carried out by an NGO, Intellectual Forum on Politics and Governance (IFP&G), Osinbajo was tipped ahead of others.

The survey, which was carried out by the group in February, indicated that Osinbajo is the most likely to win a general election due to its popularity among Nigerians.

The poll result was based on the balanced random sample of 12,000 names selected from a database of registered voters, with the respondents spread across the states of the federation and all six geopolitical zones fully represented.

Aside from leading the final poll as the citizen’s choice for the next president, the result analysis showed that Osinbajo polled almost twice the nearest challenger with 42.5 per cent of the respondents selecting the vice president as their preferred choice, and 25.51 per cent selected Abubakar Atiku as their preferred choice.

Similarly, the group stated that when the results were analysed on a gender basis, “Prof. Yemi Osinbajo was the preferred candidate for both males and females nationally, with 41.29 per cent of males selecting him as their choice and 46.38 per cent of females selecting him.

“This can be compared with 15.16 per cent of the male gender selecting Bola Tinubu and 9.95 per cent of the female gender selecting Bola Tinubu as their preferred candidate for president.”

“The survey was carried out by telephone call. Respondents were simply asked who they would prefer to be their president in 2023, out of the following politicians, Bola Tinubu, Yemi Osinbajo, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and Abubakar Atiku.

“The politicians were selected based on the politicians who were most likely to make a bid for the presidency at the time the survey was designed,” the statement said.

The statement noted that a total of 5,525 citizens responded to the telephone calls, representing a response rate of 46 per cent.

“This sample size guarantees at least a confidence interval of 95 percent with a three per cent margin of error.

“Of the responders, 35 per cent were female and 65 percent were male, therefore the results were slightly biased toward men.

“It should also be considered that with phone penetration at approximately 80% of the population, the survey results apply specifically to the subset of the country who possess mobile phones,” it said.

•Convention time
Meanwhile, all is set for the ruling APC special convention to pick its standard-bearer who will square up with Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)’s Atiku Abubakar and others in the 2023 presidential elections.

When ThisNigeria visited the Eagles Square, Abuja venue of the convention yesterday, it was a beehive of activities, with construction work and other decorations in top gear.

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The first thing to notice, apart from the avalanche of posters, was the heavy security presence.

Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Police Commissioner, Sunday Babaji, was on the ground. Also present was the Deputy Commissioner of Police, Operations, Ben Igwe, who said he and his men had been on the ground since Friday.

He confirmed that a large number of security operatives had been deployed and that they would ensure a hitch-free convention, bearing in mind the calibre of personalities that would be present, including the president and other top party functionaries.

When our correspondents visited, the Minister of Labour and Productivity, Dr Chris Ngige, the chairman of the planning committee, was said to have been on the ground all through. Driving out for other important engagements, we were told that very important meetings were also taking place at various locations in Abuja.

With high-tempo horse trading, it is expected that sudden twists can occur as some aspirants may step down.

It was widely speculated that affirmation might be the strategy to adopt as the voting module today, laced with a consensus arrangement.

A member of the Venue Services Committee, Ade Omale told ThisNigeria that whether by consensus or affirmation, “we will come up with something befitting and beautiful. We will come up with an acceptable flag bearer tomorrow.”

Omale said Nigerians are in for a good time, adding that they were planning a convention that would not only pick a flag bearer but an entertaining, fun-filled one.

According to the committee member, all aspirants are eminently qualified for the job. “Nigerians will witness a top-notch convention that will be thrilling,” Omale assured.

At the time of going to press, the FCT minister was being expected. The Federal Capital Development Authority (FCDA), the custodian of the FCT infrastructure was equally on the ground.

A site engineer who craved anonymity said was on the ground to ensure that all facilities worked well and without hitches.

Our correspondents noticed four giant power-generating plants on standby, backed with a massive diesel tank.

The street lights around the Federal Secretariat that had not been working for some time were being fixed. The Three Arms Zone was also well-lit.

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•Poster war
There was a semblance of a poster competition. All advert spaces and any other available space in and around Eagles Square were fully occupied.

Prominent among the posters were those of Vice President Osinbajo, Godswill Akpabio, and Rotimi Amaechi. Even some obscure aspirants like Borofice also had their posters prominently displayed. Curiously, however, the posters of a leading contender like Tinubu were not very prominent at the venue yesterday.

•Assurance
A member of the health committee. Dr Biola Clark assured us that they were very prepared for the convention. She disclosed that the medical team had taken all measures to ensure a very good outing. She said they have engaged sub-committees to ensure that all went well.

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