Elite coalitions can’t win elections without the people- Adebayo
As political realignments gather pace ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 elections, debate over opposition coalitions has intensified. While many insist unity is key to unseating the ruling party, Social Democratic Party (SDP) leader Adewole Adebayo disagrees. In this interview with David Lawani, he rejects elite alliances, questions the electoral system’s credibility, and outlines a “people-powered coalition,” arguing that real change depends on mobilising disengaged citizens, not elite bargaining
Many believe only a united opposition can defeat the ruling party. Why is the SDP not fully embracing coalition politics?
The assumption that coalitions must be built among politicians is fundamentally flawed. In reality, elections are decided by citizens, not political elites. The most critical bloc in Nigeria today is the millions of registered voters who consistently choose not to participate. In the last election, nearly 80% of voters stayed away. Any meaningful coalition must begin by understanding their frustrations—whether it is a lack of trust, poor governance, or disillusionment with the political class—and bringing them back into the process. Within the political class itself, there are deep contradictions. You cannot claim to stand for accountability and transparency while aligning with individuals whose track records undermine those values. That would weaken credibility and confuse voters. We engage with other parties, but many actors have not reflected on past governance failures. Some are simply seeking another opportunity to return to power without offering anything new. The SDP will not participate in a cycle of repeated mistakes. We build a coalition with citizens—those affected by poor governance and who should benefit from good leadership. That is the alliance that can truly change Nigeria.
The SDP appears less visible in the media. What exactly is the party doing across the country?
Our work is deliberate and grassroots-focused. We are expanding membership nationwide, and the growth is both steady and significant. In many regions, especially underserved and rural areas, thousands of Nigerians are joining the party regularly. This is not just about increasing numbers; it is about building committed participants who understand the party’s vision. Media coverage is helpful, but it is not our primary objective. Elections are not won in headlines—they are won through organisation, mobilisation, and voter participation. On Election Day, the strength of our structure will be evident. We are also encouraging Nigerians to move beyond passive engagement. It is not enough to hope or pray for change. Citizens must actively participate—by joining parties, engaging in political discussions, and voting. We are reaching out to civil society, professional bodies, and religious organisations to ask them to strengthen the democratic process rather than adapt to its weaknesses. As for coalitions with other parties, we remain open—but only under the right conditions. Many parties are currently dealing with internal crises, including multiple competing ambitions that make meaningful dialogue difficult. For us, coalition is not about convenience; it is about shared discipline, clarity, and purpose. Our real coalition is already forming among Nigerians who are beginning to re-engage with the political process.
There have been defections from the SDP. Does this signal weaken the party’s confidence?
Not at all. In a growing political movement, departures are inevitable. However, they must be viewed in context. When a party regularly adds tens of thousands of new members, the departure of a few thousand does not signal decline. Most defections are driven by personal ambition rather than ideological disagreement. Individuals who believe they may not secure tickets within the SDP sometimes move to other areas. That is part of politics, and it is understandable. What matters is the party’s overall trajectory. Our growth is strong, and, more importantly, it is driven by Nigerians who align with our ideas and principles. The focus should not be on isolated departures but on whether the party continues to attract and inspire new participants. By that measure, the SDP is strengthening.
With limited representation in the Senate, does the SDP risk political marginalisation?
Political relevance should not be measured solely by the number of elected officials. Parties built around individuals are inherently unstable. When those individuals leave, the structure weakens. The SDP is building something different—a movement grounded in principles, particularly the constitutional ideals of governance, welfare, and accountability. Our goal is not just to win offices but to redefine governance in Nigeria. Some politicians view success as simply removing the current administration. For us, that is only the first step. The real challenge is what comes next. If you replace one ineffective system with another, nothing changes. We build sustainable alternatives that deliver real governance outcomes. That is why our mission is deeper than immediate electoral victories.
Do you believe the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) can deliver credible elections in 2027?
The issue is not just capability but intention. Before asking whether INEC can deliver credible elections, we must ask whether that is its priority. The process that produced its leadership involved multiple institutions—the executive, the Council of State, and the National Assembly—all of whom approved the appointment without significant resistance. This suggests a systemic issue rather than an isolated one. Nigeria had opportunities to reform its electoral system, particularly through the recommendations of the Justice Uwais panel, but those opportunities were not taken. Many of those who now criticise the system were once part of decisions that weakened it. Ultimately, credible elections depend on collective responsibility. Politicians, voters, the media, and law enforcement agencies all play a role. However, the failure to institutionalise strong electoral reforms has made the challenge much more difficult.
Are those who once benefited from flawed elections now experiencing the consequences?
Yes, that is exactly what is happening. When electoral weaknesses worked in their favour, many political actors ignored the need for reform. They assumed they would remain in control indefinitely. Now that the same system is no longer advantageous to them, they are confronting its flaws. A reminder that weak institutions affect everyone, regardless of position.
There are concerns that the political space is being narrowed to favour President Bola Tinubu as the dominant candidate in 2027. What is your perspective?
President Bola Tinubu operates from a perspective shaped by political struggle rather than institutional democracy. His approach suggests that power is acquired and retained through effort and strategy, rather than by strengthening democratic systems. From our interactions, his message has been clear: he fought his way into power and expects others to do the same. That mindset does not prioritise creating a level playing field; it emphasises endurance and control. Some argue that this interpretation is unfair and that he is simply telling opposition parties to fix their internal problems. What I am referring to are his direct statements. He communicated clearly that political competition is a contest of endurance. Others may frame it differently, but his position was explicit.
Is the opposition prepared to make the sacrifices required to challenge the ruling party effectively?
Opposition is not defined by rhetoric; it is defined by action. Some individuals who claim to be in opposition are inconsistent or even undermine their own cause. For the opposition to succeed, three things are essential. First, internal discipline—parties must operate within the law and maintain order. Second, clarity of purpose—mobilising Nigerians around principles, not personal ambition. Third, a clear alternative—something distinctly different from the current government. If opposition parties resemble the ruling party in behaviour and approach, Nigerians will see no reason to support them. There must be a sharp contrast—one that offers a genuine and credible path forward.
