Political muscle-flexing is gaining momentum in Ekiti and Osun states between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the major opposition, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ahead of the June 18 and July 16, 2022, governorship elections in both states, Ben Ogbemudia writes

The question people are asking is how prepared the PDP is to wrestle power from the APC to achieve its goal. Political pundits believe that the current disunity in the PDP is the biggest challenge.

Since the 1999 new dawn democratic experiment, the PDP has been finding it difficult to confront the APC in the South-West, principally because some of its governors who managed to control one or two states ended up in bitter internal squabbles, consequently losing such states to the APC.

Indeed, the dislodgement of PDP in Ondo, Osun, and Ekiti states, through election tribunals, has left a deep gash in the party’s ranks, from which it is yet to recover.

Rather, PDP members and big-wigs in the South-West, it appears, tend to spend more time dissipating energy in fighting one another than the ruling party.

This has left the party deeply polarised. Take, for instance, the crisis that hit the Osun chapter of the party. The crisis is said to be caused by, of all things, ‘selfishness’. Some have argued that the opposition was left with no other choice than to reach the sad conclusion: “If the party could not win elections when it was ostensibly united, is it now that it is fractionalised that it hopes to win? It is a pity that great leaders of the party, such as the former governor of the state and former national secretary of the party, Olagunsoye Oyinlola, once defected to APC, according to Murtala Ademola, an aggrieved PDP member.

This, to him, has surely thrown up new challenges for the PDP. What would have caused the party leadership not to broker peace before the defection of the political juggernauts? This is one question that has kept cropping up since INEC fixed dates for the governorship elections.

He said, “Lagos State has become a no-go area for other parties. Why is this so? What can be done to wrest the state from APC? This is the question many pundits have asked over the years. The secret behind the hegemony of AD (now APC) in Lagos is that it has its roots in the ideological and policy direction of successive governments in the state.

“All about leadership is performance. Any leadership that does not perform should not expect to enjoy the support of the electorate. The performance of the present administration in the state makes it a Herculean task for any other party to attempt to take over power from it.”

The party member added, “I do not want to subscribe to undue emotionalism over the coming elections in Ekiti and Osun. The realities on the ground are what I am espousing,” Abdulmalik Suleman, from Osun State, said in a discussion with ThisNigeria.

He said, “It will be an exercise in futility for any party to hope to win without a well-defined, convincing and people-oriented programme. The aware and savvy political classes of both states make it difficult for anybody to try to pull the wool over their eyes. All they want to see is the development and not promises. This is what will count on the day of the election.

“The aspect that poses the biggest worry is security. What role will security agencies play in the elections? It will amount to a huge tragedy if security agents allow themselves to be compromised.

“There is already a benchmark for the elections – the Edo and Ondo state governorship elections conducted in 2020 and 2021. I do not want to include the Anambra State governorship election that was fraught with controversies.

“The Ondo and Edo governorship elections were conducted under reasonable freeness and fairness and were so accepted by Nigerians and the international community. What we cannot afford this time round is a deviation from the success already recorded in both elections.

“The success or failure of the elections rests squarely on the shoulders of INEC and security agencies. The commendable role played by each establishment in the Edo and Ondo governorship elections that made it successful showed that we could get things done the right way if we are committed. It is only when we shun selfishness and embrace patriotism that we can achieve development for our nation.

The chieftain added, “Though we belong to diverse political interests, we should place the nation above self. This is why it behoves every Nigerian to see Nigeria as our collective patrimony and work for its greatness.

“As I said earlier, what should INEC do to conduct free and fair elections in the two states? First, it must be convinced within itself that it wants to conduct free and acceptable elections. It should then follow it up by perfecting its strategies to avoid any lacuna or act that may smear its hard-earned reputation.

“Second, it should constantly educate the electorate and contestants on their role in the elections and the consequences of shirking their civic duties. This should be extended to the security agents whose role is pivotal to the success or otherwise of the polls.

“Third, it should enlist the support of traditional rulers and religious leaders to help it in the enlightenment of their subjects and followers. Added to this is the need to design a special package for the youths who are usually malleable tools in the hands of unscrupulous politicians.

“There is also the need for INEC to publicise voter registers to ensure that the mistake of Anambra State governorship election does not recur.

“It will be unpardonable for the commission if, at the end of the day, many of the voters could not find their names on the voter registers. Apart from its far-reaching impact on the overall election, such omission or commission amounts to deliberately disenfranchising the electorate whose primary duty is to elect leaders to govern them.

“We have reached a stage in this country where we should be seen to get our act together. We cannot afford to continue to make avoidable mistakes that imperil our fragile democracy.

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“As much as INEC has a big role to play, the security agents must work conscientiously to complement it by ensuring that they operate professionally and fairly. It should not take sides with any political party or politician as this will bring them into conflict with the politicians and the masses. They should make adequate arrangements to proactively deal with identified threats from any quarter.

“They should not claim ignorance of the fact that some persons have stockpiled arms and ammunition for the elections to cause a breach of the peace and scuttle efforts to achieve peaceful elections. It can achieve this by maximizing the intelligence network available to it and conducting successful raids on the hideouts of criminal elements. It is gratifying to note that the government has provided sufficient logistical support to security agencies across the country to enable them to discharge their constitutional duties efficiently. As a result, they do not have any reason not to perform.

“The contestants themselves have to ensure their supporters conduct themselves with decorum. They should bear in mind that winning or losing the elections is not the end of life. There is always another opportunity for those who will lose to make up for their losses. What is paramount is to contribute their quota to the peace, progress, and development of their state for which generations unborn will remember them for.

“The truth that cannot easily be wished away is that the forthcoming elections hold great significance for our political development. And anybody that holds a different view should be living on a different planet. What we see and hear every day about the elections is enough to cause us some concern.

“Who would not be worried when we consider the fact that the two states in question used to be the theatre of ogre spectacles and other violent disturbances during elections, particularly in the early 60s and the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) in the 80s. Close followers of elections in Nigeria would recall how fiercely elections were fought in the Western part of Nigeria in those eras.”

Abdulmalik, still worried about the outcome of the speech further, “In my thinking, what happens in future elections, particularly in the governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun mid-year, is something everybody should be concerned about. We should not gloss over the fact that PDP and AD (now a member of the All Progressives Congress –APC) have been old rivals. This rivalry will come to play in any elections that are held in the West.

Even commentators believe the outcome of the two elections will determine the direction the 2023 elections would ultimately go. But I have a different view. The 2023 elections will witness an interplay of forces with varied interests that will decide which party carries the day. It is not going to be determined by just one factor. I expect a straight, fierce contest between PDP and APC. And the ultimate winner will be determined by performance. Let us ask a very simple and hypothetical question: Are the governors of the five states in the west performing? The answer is ‘yes’. How then will the PDP be able to dislodge them? The answer too is simple: come up with a realistic and functional winning formula, which space may constrain me to state publicly.”

Also in a chat with journalists, the Publicity Secretary of the APC, in Ekiti State, Segun Dipe, said with the ruling party under the leadership of Governor Kayode Fayemi having performed creditably, the election would be an easy ride for it.

“Only the APC had recognised structures across the 177 political wards in the state, which he said would help the party in achieving victory at the poll.

“We are the party to beat and, of course, we are the only party with structures across the state. We are the living party because others are either dead or dying. We will only advise the other parties to move into the APC. The more the merrier.”

According to him, “The party is as good as winning the June 18, 2022 election. It is just the manifestation that we are waiting for.”

Another party chieftain in the state, Rafael Adeyanju, thinks the election will be a walkover for the opposition for what he described as the poor performance of the present administration in the state.

“The people of Ekiti State had been subjected to hardship in all sectors, saying the electorates were waiting for election day to punish the ruling party,” he said, adding, “The people of Ekiti are enlightened and cannot be moved by propaganda from the APC in the build-up to the governorship poll.

“The truth of the matter is that the election is almost a walk-over for the PDP because the people are tired of the administration of the APC in Ekiti and, by extension, in Nigeria.

“It would have been difficult for us if the government in Ekiti had performed in the last three and a half years but to further compound the woes of the APC, our people are more informed and you can’t deceive them with propaganda and lies. Check the elections since 1999 in the state and you will see how people changed parties every four years.

“People have seen things for themselves in the society, and I can tell you that the PDP will be victorious on June 18.”

In Osun State, the factional chairman of the PDP, Mr Wale Ojo, said there was no cause for alarm regarding the coming election as his party is popular and acceptable to the masses. Ojo stated that the party is working round the clock to ensure victory at the poll.

“Our hope and strength are in God and the good people of the state, and I want to assure you that our internal differences are being given attention and will be resolved amicably before February.

“Our leaders, elders, Board of Trustees members, state working committee members, and other stakeholders are putting heads together to ensure that all party members work harmoniously together.”

Concluding, he said, “Honestly, our expectation is victory, because the APC has failed the people of the state in many ways, and the PDP is the only party that they would want to turn to for a better deal.”

Also, the other factional chairman of the PDP in the state, Mr Sunday Bisi, expressed confidence that the party would beat every other political party in the state to victory at the governorship election in July.

Bisi said the APC government had let the people of the state down in many ways, adding that the PDP was the only party that could wipe off the tears on the people’s faces.

On the internal bickering within the party, he said disagreements were inevitable in any circle. He expressed confidence that all grievances would be resolved ahead of the big political battle in a few months.

According to him, plans are on the way for a mass mobilisation of the people of the state for the party.

On his part, the spokesperson of the APC in the state, Mr Kunle Oyatomi, said: “In Osun State today, there is no household that is not being touched one way or the other through the policies and programmes of the Gboyega Oyetola-led APC government.

“The APC has been winning in the last 11 years, and the party is still maintaining its responsibility in making the good people of the state happy and grateful.

“The PDP, for instance, lives a lie, pretence, and deceit. To defeat Oyetola in the coming guber election is more impossible than difficult.

“You cannot replace goodness with evil in broad daylight against the wishes of the people who are beneficiaries of that goodness.

“The people have spoken and are still speaking loud and clear in all the hail of endorsements so far. A broad spectrum of infrastructural and developmental institutions has come on stream within the last 36 months of Oyetola’s administration. This has set the stage for the kind of economics and social development that the state has never experienced.

“The labour unions, teachers, civil servants, farmers, men and women of integrity, amongst others, are all behind the APC in the State of Osun like Rock of Gibraltar.”