Former presidential campaign spokesman and political analyst, Segun Sowunmi, has predicted that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu could secure victories in about 22 states during the 2027 presidential election despite expected challenges in parts of Northern Nigeria.
Sowunmi made the projection on Thursday while speaking on The Morning Show on Arise Television, where he assessed the current political landscape and the electoral prospects of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
According to him, Tinubu is likely to improve on his 2023 performance in several regions, particularly in the South-East, where the APC has traditionally struggled to gain significant support.
He argued that the president would also maintain a strong foothold in the South-West while potentially recording stronger results in the South-South.
“The president is going to win significantly better numbers in the South-East because those are not places they usually get better numbers before,” Sowunmi said.
He added that the South-South could even deliver more support to Tinubu than the South-East, judging by ongoing political developments in the region.
The political commentator further projected that the president would perform strongly in the North-Central zone and make gains in the North-West compared to the last election cycle.
Sowunmi attributed the expected improvement in the North-West to the influence of key political figures, governors and major stakeholders whom he described as critical to electoral outcomes in the region.
He pointed to changing political alignments in states such as Katsina, noting that some influential figures who previously worked with the opposition are no longer in the same positions they occupied during the 2023 election.
Recalling the last election, he said members of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s campaign team played significant roles in helping the Peoples Democratic Party secure victory in Katsina, but maintained that the political situation in the state has since evolved.
Sowunmi also cited developments in Kano, where he said shifts among prominent politicians and influential stakeholders could affect future voting patterns.
Despite his optimism about Tinubu’s prospects, Sowunmi acknowledged that the president could face resistance in some northern areas.
“Where I expect the president to be weak is probably in the North,” he said, while stressing that he had examined the political structures and major players across the region before arriving at his conclusion.
The former PDP governorship candidate nevertheless maintained that Tinubu remains favourably positioned ahead of the next presidential contest, estimating that the president could emerge victorious in approximately 22 states if current political trends persist.
He also expressed the view that the 2027 presidential race is likely to be dominated by Tinubu and Atiku, dismissing suggestions that other contenders could significantly alter the contest.
