By Olusegun Olanrewaju
It is a high season of horse-trading as presidential aspirants revved up their game at the weekend, crisscrossing the country, seeking ‘deals’.

The field of the presidential race is flooded with aspirants in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), among a pocket of others.

The leading opposition party, PDP, kick-started its congresses yesterday nationwide, drawing attention to the hard fact the race to 2023 had begun in earnest.

In the PDP camp, it is believed that the frontrunners in the race to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari are the Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike; his Sokoto State counterpart, Aminu Tambuwal; former Senate President, Bukola Saraki; and former vice-president, Atiku Abubakar.

In the ruling APC, the Senate President, Ahmad Lawan, National Leader of the APC and former governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinubu, sitting Vice President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, as well as immediate past Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, are leading the pack.

Over the weekend, Wike, who was in Abia State, told leaders and delegates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to trust him as the only presidential aspirant who can defend the interest of Ndi-Igbo.

Also, campaigning in the South-East, Tambuwal accused President Buhari of excluding the South-East in national issues.

He said the people of the South-East ‘feel cheated’ because Buhari keeps excluding them in the scheme of things, thereby heightening the insecurity in the region.

In the APC, Senator Lawan, who was in Katsina to seek the votes of the delegates, asked Nigerians to judge his presidential aspirations based on his qualifications and not where he comes from.

Also in Katsina, Osinbajo sought the ‘royal blessing’ of the Emir, Abdulmuminin Usman, who simply told his guest, “We are behind you. I pray with all my heart that you succeed; that you carry on where your predecessor stopped and Allah will help you.”

The APC national leader, Tinubu was actively campaigning in the Edo-Delta axis, begging delegates for backing.

The message for Tinubu, in his presidential race, was delivered by Asiwaju Musulumi of Yorubaland, Edo, and Delta, Dr Khamis Olatunde-Badmus, who appealed to all the presidential aspirants in the South-West on the platform of the ruling APC to support the Jagaban Borgu.

However, political watchers are noticing the changes in the landscape, especially with the refusal of President Buhari to sign the controversial Electoral Act into law. There are suggestions that, in the light of dramatic changes unfolding nationwide, the southern part of the country could be having the upper edge in bagging the presidential ticket.

Amid the background on the non-signing of the Electoral Act by the president, it seems the interest in the opposition is rising, and there is a notable ‘prediction’ on the sidelines, by a human rights and former aide to ex-president Goodluck Jonathan, Reno Omokri, that should a southerner be successful in clinching the presidency in the PDP that should be Governor Wike.
Shortly after submitting, Omokri’s disposition was immediately followed by several reactions as social media users, where mixed opinions were darted online.

Careful observations are being hereby made since many presidential aspirants on the platform of the PDP have started their consultations with party leaders and delegates in different states.

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•Wike, Atiku, Tambuwal, Saraki are frontrunners as South most likely to clinch PDP ticket

The Rivers State helmsman has severally been described as a political strategist and giant following his political forays which started at the local government level.

Wike’s emergence as the governor of Rivers State was attributed to the doggedness of a political strategist, which many believe he will replicate at the national level if given the chance.

With a good resource base, it is believed in some quarters that Wike could match ground with any candidate during the coming PDP presidential primary, including former vice president, Atiku Abubakar. Perhaps this is what aided Omokri’s observation, in the first instance.

It is believed that Wike is quite conversant with Nigeria’s kind of politics “and he knows exactly what to do to win elections in this country. He seems ready to replicate such experiences in the PDP’s presidential primary election”.

Though a controversial persona, Omokri has a reputation as a frank talker, it is on this premise that observers are watching his submission about Wike being the only southerner who can win the PDP’s ticket.

The apparent refusal of President Buhari to sign the amended Electoral Act, pundits say, has altered political permutations in the PDP.

As it stands, without the president’s signature, the act stipulates that only 811 people will be able to elect the presidential flagbearer of the PDP as statutory delegates including the president, serving and former governors, and serving and former members of the National Assembly were excluded from voting at the national conventions.

According to reports, the 811 delegates would comprise 774 national delegates (one per local government area and 37 special delegates (People with disability from each of the 36 states and FCT).

The development, it is believed, has boosted the chances of governors Wike and Tambuwal as well as that of Saraki.

Saraki, it is believed, has been boosted by his endorsement of the North-Central zone of the PDP. But even without a standing endorsement from the South-South, Wike is still considered a serious contender in the region. A report says “he would be gladdened by the fact that he has a fewer number of delegates within and outside the zone to reach out to.”

Tambuwal also stands a chance, given the fact that the North-West Zone is presenting the highest number of delegates to the convention largely because of the region’s superior number of local governments.

“Tambuwal’s room for manoeuvre, is, however, tempered by incursions made into the zone by Wike and Saraki,” pundits say.
According to reports, the North-West has 186 national delegates which is more than double the 95 coming from the South-East, which has three major presidential aspirants; Peter Obi, Anyim Pius Anyim, and entrepreneur, Sam Ohuabunwa.

It all translates into the fact that the South-East has a limited number of national delegates available from the zone, which would be shared among themselves and poachers from outside.

With a ‘formidable’ national base, and being the immediate past presidential candidate of the party, it is widely believed that Atiku only has to grapple with Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed of Bauchi for the North-East’s 112 national delegates.

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But meanwhile, the former vice president is also being challenged by the fact that no governor is openly associating with him besides his home governor, Ahmadu Fintri (Adamawa), who is believed to see the trend as an obligation to support Atiku, his compatriot from the same state.

•South-East/South-West dilemma

Already, the stalemate over the Electoral Act has been compared with a political tsunami for the South-East, which has been rendered ‘disadvantaged’ as a region in statutory delegates, with only 95 slots.

The same now applies to the South-West, which is now presenting only a former governor of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose, as a presidential candidate. This, it is argued, “presents a lot of opportunity for Saraki, Wike, and the Atiku who already have strong appendages in the region”.

Saraki has a maternal foothold in the South-West, and campaign officials are reported to be very hopeful of the support of delegates from Ondo where the campaign is fighting off the influence of Atiku, who has entered the state through his long-time associate, Eyitayo Jegede.

Amid all these, the Wike campaign, on its part is hopeful of mobilising delegates through the only governor in the region, Seyi Makinde, who is openly backing the Rivers State governor. Even Fayose is believed to be secretly working for Wike.

As it is, the South-West has been invariably turned into the most contested zone.

•Lawan, Tinubu, Osinbajo, Amaechi in fight to finish

In the APC, the front runners for the race – Lawan, Tinubu, Osinbajo, and Amaechi – are now embroiled in what has been signposted as ‘a fight to the finish.

Despite the gale of defections trailing the ranks of the ruling party, it is believed that it could still be the party to beat.

Just as the aspirants are multiplying, so have mushroom political parties, which have been dormant for the past years, now see a chance to be seen and heard as some ambitious politicians solicit their platforms to pursue their aspirations. It is another way of saying that the two major parties, the governing APC and the opposition PDP are the key contestants for power in 2023.

Apart from the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) that is currently governing Anambra State, the APC and PDP share the remaining 35 states between them. The governors, members of the National Assembly, members of the state houses of assembly, and local government councils are shared between them.

A report disclosed that currently, both the APC and PDP are working with the same template to capture power in 2023. This, it is said, is because, apart from sourcing their national chairman from the same North-Central geo-political zone (APC’s Senator Abdullahi Adamu from Nasarawa State and PDP’s Senator Iyorchia Ayu from Benue State), “they are also strongly thinking of using the consensus option to choose their presidential candidates”.

It was stated that the APC ‘boxed itself into a corner with the promise of a zoning formula in late 2018 and early 2019’.

Shortly before the February 2019 general election, the Secretary to Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha, travelled to Imo State where he solicited votes from the South-East in return for the presidential ticket in 2019. Similarly, in that year Vice President Yemi Osinbajo was in the palace of the Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Lamidi Adeyemi. Canvassing votes, he said the South-West had been positioned for the presidency in 2023’.

For now, even though the ranks of APC are swelled with those listed as ‘frontrunners’ and ‘pretenders’, Tinubu, Lawan, Osinbajo, and Amaechi stand the best chances.

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Under his office and the nationwide attention that followed his declaration, Osinbajo should ordinarily be considered a major contender for the party’s ticket but this is not the case. The Aso Rock click and President Buhari are not disposed to his presidential ambition.

It is believed that Osinbajo is, however, being supported to challenge and unsettle his now-estranged political godfather, Tinubu, who had earlier declared his presidential bid.

As for Tinubu, it is believed that the major obstacle against him is President Buhari himself and his very close associates who have the President’s ears.

Amaechi is another very experienced politician and very close to President Buhari. “He also enjoys the support of some very close associates of the president, including First Lady, Aisha Buhari, and some state governors.

Other contenders are the Ekiti State Governor, Dr Kayode Fayemi, and his Kogi State counterpart, Yahaya Bello, who also wooed the party delegates in the various states.