Budget overlaps reflect transition, not failure — Fasua, Economic Adviser to President

The Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Economic Matters, Tope Fasua, says concerns over Nigeria’s budget cycle are misplaced, insisting recent overlaps reflect transition realities rather than policy failure. Speaking on Politics Today, a programme on Channels Television, Fasua argued that the administration is focused on delivering a people-centred, capital-driven budget. He also defended rising spending, borrowing plans, and reforms, assuring Nigerians of a deliberate push toward long-term economic stability. David Lawani monitored the interview

How do you respond to concerns about confusion over the budget cycle within a single year?

Well, you already mentioned that this has happened in the last eight years, and it is not entirely new. Under President Bola Tinubu, this situation has occurred. Still, I recall that during the Goodluck Jonathan era, budgets were sometimes not signed until August or September of the same year. The key point about a budget is that it is a law; once enacted and signed, it must be implemented. That explains why overlaps happen. At times, within a single year, for operational or other reasons, it may not be possible to implement the budget fully. However, because it is a law, it still has to be executed before moving fully into the next cycle. The last two years presented a peculiar situation due to the transition between Muhammadu Buhari and President Tinubu. By May 29, 2023, when the new government took office, the 2023 budget was already in effect. The Buhari administration had tried to stabilise the system by ensuring budgets were passed by January. It ran through December, but even then, full implementation within that timeframe was not always achieved. We are dealing with human systems, and sometimes things do not go exactly according to plan. Toward the end of last year, Mr President sent an amendment bill to the National Assembly to clean up the 2023 budget and move things forward, while also addressing the 2024 budget. If you look at the broader picture, Nigeria has made progress in normalising its budget cycle, particularly during parts of the Jonathan era when Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala served as Coordinating Minister of the Economy. Budgets were presented and signed before January in some cases. However, in recent years, there have been irregularities that point to planning challenges we are now addressing.

Given this situation, what is the way forward?

The regularisation of the budget cycle actually happened toward the end of the Buhari administration, not from the beginning. What we are doing now is consolidating on that progress and continuing to work toward a more stable and predictable cycle.

During Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s tenure, budgets were sometimes passed as early as October. Why is that difficult now?

It did not happen as consistently as people tend to suggest. The more stable cycle was achieved later, particularly during the Buhari administration. As I have said, these are human systems. Budgets are for people, not people for budgets. What matters most is whether the budget delivers results for the people. If there is something important to achieve, then the government must do what is necessary to ensure success. The 2023 transition created a situation in which a running budget overlapped with a new administration. The current government is working to regularise and normalise that situation. However, the most important issue now is the size and structure of the budget. The budget is growing because we need to plan adequately for our people. The current budget, which was signed, allocates about 50% to capital expenditure. That shows a government that is forward-looking and ambitious. I can assure you that within a year or two, we may return fully to the December–January cycle, which is desirable for planning and even for the aesthetics of budgeting. But beyond timing, the real issue is the quality of the budget and the improvements in revenue projections.

The President proposed ₦58.47 trillion, but ₦68.32 trillion was passed—the largest in Nigeria’s history. Is this not fiscally overstretched?

It goes beyond the idea of overstretching; it is about strategy and vision. If you convert that figure to dollars, you will realise that Nigeria still has one of the smallest budgets in the world. In 2018 and 2019, analyses showed that Nigeria had one of the lowest per capita budgets globally, second only to DR Congo. Countries like Angola and South Africa budget around $500 per capita, while Nigeria has been hovering around $150 per capita. With this new budget, we are moving closer to about $200 per capita. The additional ₦10 trillion added to the budget has been directed into meaningful spending. For the first time, about ₦32 trillion—roughly half of the budget—is allocated to capital expenditure. About ₦15 trillion is allocated to recurrent expenditure, and another ₦15 trillion to debt servicing. Revenue is also improving. Agencies like the Federal Inland Revenue Service and Customs are becoming more effective, and tax reforms are already yielding results. For me, this is very encouraging. It reflects a government that is planning. Even the World Bank recently reported that capital spending at the sub-national level has more than tripled, in some cases even exceeding federal levels.

Critics say the budget lacks direction and accountability. How do you respond?

First of all, you acknowledged that this is the largest budget in Nigeria’s history. That means it represents the biggest commitment to the Nigerian people. People can describe the budget however they choose, but this one has people at heart. Even if the budget were ₦100 trillion, what matters is whether it is being managed by a leadership that understands what it is doing. This administration is focused on delivering results.

Critics also argue the budget lacks planning and coordination, especially with extensions into 2026. How do you defend this?

Carryovers from previous budgets are not new in Nigeria; they have occurred under almost every administration. The important thing is not the appearance of the budget but its delivery and impact on the people. For the first time, we are seeing a shift in which capital expenditure is no longer overshadowed by recurrent spending. This shows a government that is serious about development, including capital investment at the sub-national level. That is something that should not be ignored.

With debt servicing at about ₦15.8 trillion and plans to borrow ₦29.20 trillion, does this make sense?

Those who talk about a “debt trap” often do not fully understand the concept. I am concerned about the kind of rhetoric that is sometimes promoted. Nigeria is not over-borrowed, and its debt is being managed sustainably. Africa as a whole accounts for only about 1.8% of global debt. Even within Africa, Nigeria is not the most indebted country—it ranks around fifth, despite having one of the largest economies. Borrowing is necessary for growth. Every country that intends to grow must leverage debt, especially for infrastructure such as roads, energy systems, bridges, and education. Currently, the federal government accounts for about 93% of Nigeria’s debt, while states account for only 7%. I believe states should do more, including accessing markets to finance infrastructure. You cannot expect development without investment. The focus should not be on maintaining a “nice-looking” balance sheet at the expense of progress.

With projected revenue of ₦34 trillion and borrowing of ₦29.20 trillion, is this balanced?

Revenue projections are increasing alongside expenditure. There are new mechanisms for improving collections through FIRS and Customs, and ongoing tax reforms will further boost revenue. We are also improving earnings from crude oil and gas. The government is taking a different approach compared to the past. Looking ahead, revenue could rise to about ₦45 trillion, not just ₦34 trillion. The goal is to reposition the economy fundamentally. I believe that, from 2026 onward, Nigerians will begin to see clear, positive differences.

Do you accept that this government has performed poorly in budget implementation?

No, I do not agree with that at all. We are in a transition period, and the President has undertaken reforms that previous administrations avoided. These include the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate reforms, and major tax reforms, the first of their kind in Nigeria. These reforms are already saving significant resources annually. We are also seeing a shift in economic activity toward the states. Many people focus only on the federal government, but real transformation is happening at the sub-national level. This is a reform-driven government. The President is focused on achieving results, not just maintaining appearances. I strongly disagree with the claim that performance has been poor.