By Kunle Harmony
As the year 2020 winds down, it has emerged that Nigeria has faltered on her Vision 20: 2020 goal of being among the twenty largest economies globally by this year (2020).
This was disclosed in a recent report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which revealed that Nigeria emerged the 26th largest economy in the world, but retains its position as the largest in Africa by gross domestic product (GDP).
The IMF, in its recently released World Economic Outlook, ranked Nigeria the 26th largest economy, with an average GDP of $442.976 billion, making her six positions short of her 2020 vision.
Since the rebasing of Nigeria’s economy in 2013, which shot the country’s GDP up from $270 billion to $510 billion, Nigeria has hovered in the 26th position globally.
Vision 20:2020 is a dream statement that Nigeria would become one of the first 20 economies in the world by the year 2020. The 2020 goal was sequel to a research conducted by economists at an American Investment Bank, Goldman Sachs, a fall-out of which was a prediction that Nigeria would be in the league of 20 top economies by year 2025. This was based on assessment of its abundant human and material resources and on the assumption that the country’s resources would be properly managed and channeled to set economic goals. The then president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, next muted the dream as Vision 2020
From the IMF report, the United States remains the biggest world economy with $19.48tn GDP; followed by China, $12.23tn; Japan, $4.87tn; Germany, $3.69tn; India, $2.65tn; United Kingdom, $2.63tn; France, $2.58tn and Brazil in 10thh position with $2.05tn GDP.
The figures were based on nominal GDP, which do not take into account differences in the cost of living in different countries’ purchasing power parity.
South Africa’s GDP put at $358.839bn is the second biggest economy in Africa; Egypt has $302.256bn GDP; Algeria, $172.781bn; Morocco, $119.04bn and Kenya’s GDP is put at $99.246bn.
Nigeria’s GDP is mainly driven by abundant crude oil, finance, transport and infrastructure.
The country records around 1.6 million barrels of crude oil a day, according to OPEC, making it the largest exporter of crude oil in Africa. The petroleum exports make up 10 per cent of the total GDP and over 80 per cent of the export sector revenue.
Notwithstanding the rankings, the IMF has just forecast a gloomy picture on the Nigerian economy for 2020, noting that the outlook was challenging.
The multilateral institution, in its recently released 2020 Article IV Consultation on Nigeria, had stated that the country’s economy “is buffeted from side to side by a cocktail of issues, including the uncertainty over the COVID-19 pandemic, low oil prices, capital outflows and balance of payment challenges.”
The Bretton Wood institution stated, “The COVID-19 global pandemic is exacting a heavy toll on the Nigerian economy, which was already experiencing falling per capita income and double-digit inflation, with limited buffers and structural bottlenecks.
