By Lemmy Ughegbe, PhD
On 29 May 2025, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marked the second anniversary of his administration with a triumphant press statement, confidently scoring himself high marks for reforms, declaring that Nigeria’s “worst days are over,” and promising a brighter future.
It was a performance characteristic of a leader who believes his legacy is firmly on track. But away from the cameras and official statements, the mood among Nigerians remains far more sceptical. While Tinubu’s government claims reformist credentials and some macroeconomic improvements, many citizens remain wary, their daily experiences shaped by hardship, insecurity, and economic fatigue.
At the heart of Tinubu’s reform narrative lies one of the most contentious issues he inherited: the fuel subsidy. It is important to clarify that Tinubu did not originate the removal policy, even though he, along with the two main rivals in the 2023 presidential election, campaigned on a platform that included fuel subsidy removal.
Former President Muhammadu Buhari had effectively ended the subsidy by excluding allocations from the 2023 budget handed over to Tinubu.
However, to Tinubu’s credit, he did not reverse or shy away from implementing the decision. Instead, he publicly owned the policy, famously declaring during his inauguration that “subsidy is gone.”
The consequences were immediate and painful. Petrol prices tripled almost overnight, cascading into higher transport costs and triggering widespread inflation, with an astronomic increase in malnourished children as more families became poorer or destitute.
Imported goods, which are dependent on foreign exchange, became even more expensive following Tinubu’s decision to continue the naira liberalisation policy, allowing the currency to float and adjust to market forces.
Yet, amid the hardship, some early green shoots are visible. Most notably, food prices, which had previously spiralled to record highs, have begun to moderate. A 50kg bag of rice, which soared to over ₦100,000 during the peak of inflation, is now down to about ₦58,000.
Prices of staple grains like beans and maise have also eased significantly, giving some measure of relief to households. However, critics argue that it is due to imports from neighbouring countries rather than a result of increased domestic production.
Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which stood at around $472 billion when Tinubu took office in May 2023, has since risen to an estimated $495 billion — a sign of gradual economic expansion under his administration.
However, these statistics, though impressive on paper, often feel remote and irrelevant to the ordinary Nigerian on the street, who does not care about burgeoning figures when his empty stomach bites. Hunger is the most telling and brutal statistic in the land, and until people feel relief in their daily lives, no amount of growth data can console them.
Tinubu also highlighted progress on the security front, pointing to military operations that have reclaimed territory from insurgents in the North-East and reduced the frequency of high-profile attacks, such as highways like the Kaduna-Abuja Road.
Some farming communities, once overrun by bandits, are slowly returning to production, and there are signs of better coordination between security agencies. However, insecurity remains a persistent and widespread concern. Kidnappings for ransom continue unabated in the North-West, while the Middle Belt, particularly states like Benue and Plateau, has remained a hotbed of murderous attacks on rural communities, with perpetrators rarely apprehended or brought to justice. Separatist tensions simmer in the South-East, while cult clashes and gang violence plague parts of the South-South.
For many Nigerians, the simple, daily question — “Am I safe?” — remains unanswered. Without lasting security reforms, including police reform, intelligence coordination, and judicial accountability, any current gains are at risk of being short-lived.
Nigerians yearn not just for military operations but for a system that protects ordinary citizens and makes insecurity the exception, not the norm.
Tinubu’s administration claims to uphold the fight against corruption, promising to strengthen institutions and enforce accountability. Yet, critics argue that the government’s anti-corruption drive appears more like a performance than genuine reform, pointing to the selective targeting of opponents, the shielding of political allies from scrutiny, and the absence of any major convictions at the top levels of power.
Nigeria’s corruption challenge is deeply entrenched, affecting all sectors, including political parties, the civil service, and private businesses.
Meaningful reform requires depoliticised investigations, robust institutional frameworks, and consistent enforcement — none of which can be achieved through mere pronouncements or occasional arrests.
Until the government demonstrates a willingness to confront corruption within its ranks, public scepticism will likely persist.
While international observers such as the International Monetary Fund and credit rating agencies have praised Nigeria’s shift toward fiscal discipline and market-oriented policies, the average Nigerian is focused on more immediate concerns: job security, wage stagnation, and household purchasing power.
Inflation, though showing signs of easing, remains painfully high, especially for low-income families. Small businesses continue to struggle under the weight of erratic power supply, heavy taxation, and limited access to affordable credit.
The government has suggested that the new tax reform bills aim at addressing those concerns. Time will tell if they deliver the promised relief. Youth unemployment — a simmering source of national anxiety — remains alarmingly high, fuelling the continuing “Japa” wave as young, talented Nigerians seek opportunities abroad.
The government has promised that the long-term benefits of its reforms will generate jobs, attract investment, and strengthen local industries. But for now, many Nigerians are still waiting to feel these benefits directly in their lives.
Yet it is worth reflecting on a broader governance challenge: perhaps if the heads of the federating units — Nigeria’s thirty-six state governors — also raised their game on governance rather than focusing excessively on politics, the dividends of democracy and the intended gains of national reforms would have yielded more tangible results for the people.
Public scrutiny is often fixed solely on the President, while many governors run amok, mismanaging their states with minimal accountability. Tinubu’s administration has shown its interest in rebalancing this dynamic, particularly in restoring the third tier of government — the local governments — to their rightful place.
This was underscored by the recent legal action spearheaded by the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Prince Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), who filed a landmark suit against the thirty-six state governments over local government autonomy.
The Supreme Court affirmed the Federal Government’s position, declaring that revenue allocations meant for local governments be paid directly into their accounts rather than being funnelled through state coffers.
However, since that ruling, governors across the country have been at daggers drawn, vowing to frustrate the implementation of the apex court’s judgment. So far, the Supreme Court’s pronouncement has yet to yield the desired rewards of local government autonomy, with state governments constituting themselves into clogs in the wheel of progress.
This conflict highlights how governance failures at the state level continue to undermine or hinder the intended benefits of Tinubu’s reforms, leaving the Nigerian people trapped in a vicious cycle where responsibility is blurred, and accountability often falls short at the federal level.
The greatest challenge Tinubu faces is not just in policy delivery but in rebuilding public trust. Nigerians have weathered decades of unfulfilled promises, economic experiments, and reform agendas that ultimately left them no better off.
Tinubu’s optimism — his repeated insistence that the worst is over and that a brighter future beckons — clashes with the caution of a populace shaped by past disappointments. Nigerians are not inherently pessimistic or impatient.
They are, however, understandably wary, having seen too many leaders talk about reform while living lavishly, promising transformation while ordinary citizens bear the brunt of the pain.
As Tinubu embarks on the second half of his presidency, the path forward is clear, but it is also fraught with obstacles. He must deliver tangible improvements that go beyond statistics and touch the real lives of Nigerians.
This means not just stabilising the macroeconomic environment but ensuring that farmers, traders, teachers, and small business owners feel the effects. On security, it requires building a system that protects the vulnerable without relying solely on military force. On corruption, it demands the political courage to hold allies accountable, even when it is politically inconvenient. In terms of governance, it requires a shift away from triumphalism toward humility, transparency, and genuine engagement with citizens.
Two years in, Tinubu’s presidency is a mixed bag. There are early signs that some of his economic policies may be paying off, especially as food prices ease and fiscal stability improves.
Yet, enormous challenges remain, and the public’s deep scepticism should not be dismissed lightly. Nigerians are observing and measuring the government not by its declarations but by its deliverables.
For Tinubu, the second half of his presidency presents an opportunity to prove that his optimism is not misplaced and that reforms can indeed lead to a better life for all.
But if he fails to translate his optimism into concrete, broad-based improvements that Nigerians can feel in their daily lives, history may judge his midterm boasts as premature and his tenure as another missed opportunity.
Lemmy Ughegbe, PhD, ANIPR, writes from Abuja
