Why Nigerians may stay away in 2027, despite rising interest in voting- Itodo, Yiaga Africa Director

Executive Director of Yiaga Africa, Samson Itodo, has urged the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof Joash Amupitan, to “fix the glitches” in the electoral system ahead of the 2027 general elections. Itodo made the call while presenting findings from a national survey on Channels Television’s Politics Today, stressing that security, credible candidates and effective logistics are critical to the success of the polls. David Lawani monitored the interview

Based on the data you have gathered so far, what is the survey telling us about Nigerians’ interests and concerns ahead of the 2027 elections?

It is important to note that we are conducting four different surveys. This is just the first round, based on telephone interviews with Nigerians across the 36 states and the FCT. One of the things they told us is that the “intent” to vote, that is, 77% of Nigerians intend to vote in the 2027 election, based on the data that came from the field. But 42% say they fear violence and insecurity. What that tells us is what is called a paradox. On the one hand, it appears Nigerians are interested in voting; on the other hand, they have serious concerns. Let us make it clear that this 77% is just an intention. It doesn’t mean it will translate to actual turnout. And that is why the whole discussion is on this: if we already have 77% indicating interest, our task as a country is to ensure that this 77% actually shows up. We have more than 90 million registered voters, according to INEC. It is like combining seven to eight African countries to get this number.

What does that mean?

It means a lot that 77% of Nigerians want to vote, but the major problem is fear.

Why are 42% saying electoral violence is their problem?

Nigerians want to vote, but they fear violence. You will see this in the regional distributions. But there are also two other factors they are more concerned about. This is still positive. However, there is a considerable concern about security. One thing that we found very interesting in this survey is that when you look at the pattern, you will discover that the North-West recorded 67%. That means 67% said they are interested in voting. So the North-West and North-East have the highest intention to vote. And we are emphasising this, the intention to vote. When you look at which regions have the lowest enthusiasm to vote in the next election, we found that the least enthusiasm is in the South-East and South-South.

Someone might ask, why is it that in the South-South and South-East we have low enthusiasm?

It cannot be unconnected to the electoral experiences of people in that region. There are perceptions about manipulated elections. As you can see, INEC’s trust level varies across regions: some have high trust, while others have very low confidence.

What would be the driving force for people to make their choices? Security situation (21%), candidates (21%), and economic conditions (17%). Security and candidate quality top the list of priorities, regardless of economic conditions. Why so?

What is particularly striking in this round of the survey is the issue of candidate quality. What it tells us is that Nigerians are not just voting for parties; they are actually voting for candidates. When we asked Nigerians what factors would drive them to vote in the next election, the quality of candidates came up strongly. What it tells us is that Nigerians are paying attention to who political parties nominate for the 2027 ballot. Therefore, the message here is for political parties: if you want voters to vote for you, you have to take the whole candidate nomination process seriously. Because Nigerians want competent candidates who have character and the capacity to lead. So I am not surprised that it is actually 21%. It goes neck and neck with the security situation.

How do 45% of Nigerians say they have confidence in INEC? What does that say?

We were also surprised. One of the reasons this national voters’ intention survey was conducted was that, after the 2023 general election, trust in the electoral process reached its lowest ebb. Nigerians don’t trust that their votes will count. And we wanted to know whether that would affect how they vote in 2027. It is shocking to us that 45% of Nigerians have said this. Forty-five per cent is not particularly good, but it also shows that about 50% do not trust INEC. That is what this is saying. If you look at the regional distribution, you will also see that around the South-East and South-South is where you have the deepest level of distrust. This is not good. The fact that the new INEC chairman has recognised the need to inspire public confidence presents a unique opportunity that we all need to harness. When we conduct the second round, we expect the 45% to rise to around 60%. And it depends on how transparent INEC is. What assurances are there that there won’t be multiple results coming from a particular unit? It also depends on how consistent INEC is in its decisions regarding party registration and candidate nominations.

INEC has three important windows: the FCT Area Council poll, the Osun and Ekiti elections. These present an opportunity for INEC to raise public trust or reduce Nigerians’ trust deficit in the integrity of elections. The South-East and South-South have expressed low trust in INEC and doubt its ability to deliver free and fair elections. What is your take?

This shows disconnect between trust in the election management body and voter turnout. If we are interested in raising turnout from 25% to 50%, then INEC, security agencies, the judiciary and political parties all have a responsibility to inspire trust and confidence in Nigerians. Because if Nigerians don’t trust that their votes will count, they will not come out. We have never seen an election in which the leading candidate has eight million votes, the runner-up has six million, and the second runner-up has six million as well. There has never been an election like this since 1999. Yet, despite this level of competition, the last election recorded one of the lowest turnouts.

What is the rationale behind this?

That means we may see a less competitive election. This is because there is an exodus of mass defectors from opposition parties to the ruling party. When everyone defects, it undermines competition. And the legitimacy of elections is derived from competition. One reason for these defections is an attempt to eliminate competition. And that does not bode well for our democracy.

What is the survey saying about younger people?

In this survey, young people between 18 and 35 are less likely to vote. They are less interested in voting compared to middle-aged voters. What we have found is that there is so much energy online, but there is a reluctance to show up at the polls. We have to focus on young people, particularly young voters, to get them out, to move from online engagement to offline organisation and make their numbers count. If they don’t show up at elections, this 60% share of Nigeria’s population will make no difference.

What are the 76% telling us?

They say that once the Senate resumes hearings, its priority will be to pass the electoral law due to the bill’s lofty provisions, especially those related to transparency in the electoral process.

How about the 60% of voters?

They believe voting is a civic duty and not a choice. Remarkably, people see voting this way. It is one of the survey’s positives. When you look at what will increase turnout, we have discussed credible candidates, security, and logistics. But one thing Nigerians have said is that if INEC improves on its logistics, it can increase turnout. Fix these three issues, security, credible candidates and logistics, and we might see a rise in turnout for 2027.

What do you suggest INEC fix?

Fix the glitches.

What is your advice?

My advice is that polling units in the South-East should open at 8:30 am because in 2023, we clearly saw on the map that there were delays in the deployment of election materials to places like the South-East and South-South. This suggested a systematic disruption of logistics in those areas.

What do you have to say about the Resident Electoral Commissioners?

It is not just about the INEC chairman; it is also about the Resident Electoral Commissioners and the Electoral Officers. The position matters, but what happened on Election Day? The people on the field hold the real power. It is surprising that, even when field reports show that officials undermined the process, INEC does not always act decisively. INEC needs to act against those people and ensure sanctions are imposed.

It is disturbing that individuals made decisions for INEC, as seen in Adamawa. What is your take?

There is also a limitation in the current supplementary guidelines issued by INEC on results declared under duress. The report must only come from the Resident Electoral Commissioner or the National Commissioner. So what about results coming from accredited party agents, the media and civil society? We hope that the new INEC leadership will review these supplementary guidelines and make them more open and inclusive. One key message is that Nigerians say they are interested in voting, but they have serious concerns about security — concerns that need to be addressed. We are talking about the drivers. Political parties need data to plan. INEC, the media and civil society also need this data to plan. This is part of our contribution at Yiaga Africa, as a data-driven organisation beholden to none and accountable to all Nigerians. We put this out for Nigerians, hoping it will shape public discussion ahead of the 2027 election. We thank our partners for making these resources available for the success of this work.