2023: If there’ll be a runoff, it’s likely between APC, PDP –Nwodo

A former governor of Enugu State, Dr Okwesilieze Nwodo, says the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC), has failed on all fronts except, nepotism. In this exclusive interview with Linus Aleke, the former National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and incumbent Deputy Director-General in charge of Research and Strategy in the Atiku/Okowa Campaign Organisation, noted that if there is going to be a runoff, in the 2023 presidential elections, it may likely going to be between PDP and APC, adding that he does not see Labour Party getting the plurality of more votes and at the same time spread

What are the chances of an Igbo man winning the 2023 presidential election, especially with Peter Obi on the ballot for the Labour Party (LP)?

Well to be honest with you, I am the Deputy Director General in charge of Research and Strategy for the Atiku Abubakar Campaign Organization, and in my department, we run weekly poll research on how the four front runners stand in each state of the federation. In the beginning, Peter was doing very well, because Peter was controlling almost 70 per cent of the votes in South-East and South-South. But if you go to the North, Atiku was leading but, he was not leading with that kind of percentage. In the East, Atiku was getting just about 10 per cent, Tinubu was getting five per cent and Musa Kwankwaso was getting zero per cent. In the North, Atiku was leading with 50 per cent, and Peter and Tinubu were doing well at 15/20 per cents respectively. If we go to the West, Tinubu was not leading with that kind of margin that Peter was leading in the East, Tinubu was leading with about 60 per cent, Atiku was getting 30 per cent and Peter was 20 per cent. So, when we look at the overall, it was like Peter was in the lead. But this was a poll we conducted in September 2022, currently, the statistics have changed. Our lasted poll puts Atiku in the lead, as he is leading in 12 states. Tinubu is leading in 11 states, while Peter is leading in nine states. If we now go to the voter turnout, in the states controlled by these candidates, we discovered that the voter turnout is more in the North compared to the East and the West. That is what has given Atiku some advantage, again, in the North, it appears that people are losing hope in Kwankwaso winning the election and their next best option is Atiku. So, we found that in the whole of the North, Atiku is the number one choice, Tinubu number two, Peter trailing with the third position, and Kwankwaso at the rug. If we go to the West, Tinubu is leading and in each of the states in the South-West, Atiku is second, while Peter and Kwankwaso are trailing. In the South-East and South-South, Peter is leading with a reasonable margin and Atiku is coming second and Tinubu and Kwankwaso are trailing with less than two percent. So, we found that Atiku is either first or second across the country, and that is why the PDP remains the frontrunner in the coming elections unless something else happens otherwise. Now, with the news trending last night, about the G-5 governors, it is quite clear that the four PDP governors out of the five that have elections to contest are finding it difficult to campaign for another presidential candidate on the same that they are also standing for an election. Presidential Election is slated to hold same day as the National Assembly elections. Three of the governors are running for the Senate, it is, therefore, difficult to convince their people to vote for another party on that day and still vote for them. Governor Makinde is seeking re-election and what happens in the presidential election may affect his election because there is likely to be a ban wagon effect on the result of the presidential election and the National Assembly, which will invariably affect the Governorship and State House of Assembly elections. So, this is the way things are playing out now and I am sure that every camp will continue to struggle hard for the undecided voters which are still quite a number and that can still change the tide here and there. But by and large, we in the PDP feel, we still may win this election.

Some politicians have predicted that the 2023 election will go into a runoff, do you agree with the such forecast?

Yes, but if there is going to be a runoff, it may likely going to be between PDP and APC. This is because I don’t see Labour Party, getting the plurality of more votes, and at the same time spreading that will be difficult. APC because they have more governors in the North, may struggle with PDP for a plurality of votes and then again, spread. There are more APC states in the North but because PDP is a mega party and also has a candidate of Northern extraction and whenever we have a strong candidate in the North, a strong candidate in the East and West, the votes seem to be polarized along the three regions. So, Peter is very strong in the East, Tinubu in the West, and then in the North, the person they see as the frontrunner is Atiku and because of that if there is going to be a runoff, it is going to be between PDP and APC. But we believe that with our strategy and the way we are prosecuting our campaign, we may be able to pull through in the first ballot.

Voters, especially in the South and parts of North-Central believe that Atiku’s presidency will be a continuation of the brutal and unbridled killings by terrorists, bandits, and Fulani herdsmen, since Atiku is also a Fulani man like Buhari, do you share in such thoughts?

Don’t forget that Atiku was vice president when Olusegun Obasanjo was the president, and in that administration, there was nothing like IPOB, there was nothing like the fight for Oduduwa state. The country was peaceful, in terms of balkanising the country, along with religious or tribal hatred. We didn’t have all these in the 16 years that PDP was in power. The country became divided by the APC administration which is why many people are wondering why APC is even campaigning, having divided the country so badly, having shrunken our economy so badly, and having been unable to control insecurity. This is because I need to be convinced that Boko Haram or bandits or unknown gunmen can overpower the Armed Forces of Nigeria and other security agencies. That all these security outfits cannot control insecurity in Nigeria, is not true. It is just that government in power is not interested in controlling it or other reasons best known to them. So, Atiku did not do that when he was the Vice President, he never advised his principal then, that they should polarize the country, and the whole of his public life is known to Nigerians. The first time he wanted to contest for President, Senator Ben Obi as his running mate, the second time Peter Obi, this time, Ifeanyi Okowa. Atiku has shown a consistent desire to work with the South-East. So, why would he come and preside over the kind of things we are suffering now as a people that is just not on the ballot at all? So, I believe that he has good intentions for Nigerians. I don’t want to blow his trumpet or lay bare everything that he plans to do for Nigeria but with the little he has said, I am convinced as a Nigerian, of southeast extraction that he meant well. He is ready to send a bill for state and local government policing if elected. If we have our police and they fold their arms and we are being killed, would we blame that on Atiku? He is also determined to increase the number of police personnel to meet the global standard, equip them and give them proper training in modern policing. This will be in addition to good remuneration. That is not a plan of a man who wants to continue this kind of insecurity.

The Fulani ethnic stock in Nigeria is less than 20 per cent of our entire population, are you not worried that another Fulani man is been positioned to take over from a Fulani man who is about to round off his eight years term, does a support for Atiku not amount to support to Fulani political domination in Nigeria?

Nobody can be comfortable that one tribe wants to monopolise the leadership. But don’t forget that we are practicing democracy, in the first Republic, because of this regional affiliation, Northern Nigeria did not even want to form a national party, and their party was Northern Peoples Congress. Nnamdi Azikiwe was the most nationalistic, they formed the National Party of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC), and they won the election in Western Nigeria, he was supposed to be the Premier of Western Nigeria, but the tribalism in Nigeria occurred on the day he was supposed to be sworn in as Premier of Western Nigeria. But most of his colleagues, Cross carpet, Omo Oduduwa, the children of Oduduwa, that was how he lost the majority in the Parliament and was forced by the circumstance to return to East to become the Premier of Eastern Nigeria. So, this regional tendency has always been there, the problem was that the white men helped, demographically to empower the North with more population, landmass, and everything. So, they have that advantage, also, there is a wedge, like this carpet crossing against Zik, which birthed deep suspicion between the East and West that they cannot partner together to confront Northern Nigeria. Because of this scenario, the North had always taken advantage and until we draw an alignment, currently, there is alignment between the North and the West. But then, if you go to that alliance, the West is not part of what we call the caucus in Abuja. They use them to win the election but are not running the government with them. We were lucky when Zik made alignment with the North, he became the President and the North became the Prime Minister. In the second alignment between NPP and NPN, we were able to have Ekweme as the Vice President, we had Ume-Ezeoke as the Speaker of the House of Representatives, and Senate President Joseph Wayas, all from the East. So the alignment between NPP and NPN helped us a lot. So, we need such an alignment this time with someone who has shown interest in working with Igbos. If we do that with Atiku we are sure that the Southeast will make it to the presidency after his tenure. That to me and all these demographic factors have given an advantage to the Fulani and we know the North, all the Emirs in the North, minus about two or three are Fulani. 90 percent of Ministers from the North are Fulani, Governors, 90 per cent Fulani that is the extent to which, they colonized the North. Now, the North is fighting to break away from that domination, we in the Southeast need to be more strategic in our planning. Nobody has become the President of Nigeria without winning an election in the six geopolitical zones. Let us take it from recent history, Obasanjo won in the North and East, he lost his polling booth, ward and local government, and of course the entire zone, but because other zones voted for him, he became the President. The same thing with Yar’Adua, he won in the North and East, he lost in the West and he became the President. Jonathan took advantage of completing Yar’Adua’s tenure, to win substantially in the North, in the East in particular and some part in the West, so, he became President. But then, in his second tenure when the North said that they are pulling out, they pulled out and aligned with the West and Jonathan lost. So, it is important to note that for you to win the presidential election in Nigeria, you must at least win in four, out of the six geopolitical zones.

Still on insecurity, especially as it affects the South-East, before 2015, the zone was the safest place in the country, security-wise, but today, it is a theatre of war, with the activities of unknown gunmen and Fulani herdsmen, how did we get here?

I have always said, whether we are talking about Biafra or we are talking of unknown gunmen, or other criminal elements destabilizing the zone, what the federal government owed the people of the Southeast, to stop the agitation for Biafra or to stop insecurity in the Southeast is to sit down with us and ask, what is your problem? There is no demand today in the Southeast that the federal government cannot meet. Is it roads, is it the Second Niger Bridge, is it education, what is it in the South-East, that the Federal Government cannot meet, to make us comfortable as citizens of Nigeria? But the federal government has stoutly refused to dialogue with us, and what is the result? Agitation. Now, to be sincere, Atiku said, at a rally in Anambra and Imo that the first thing he will do is to sit down with our people and ask, what do we need? Already, some of us who have been working with him over time, in 2007, 2015, and 2019, have consistently asked him what he will do for us if he becomes president, and the two most important things he has committed to is restructuring, which those of us in Southeast, consider more important than the presidency. The second one is to become president of Nigeria and he is working with us on those two demands, apart from infrastructure and appointments which, are taken for granted. So, that is why, I think, it is important for us to re- strategise on how to remain in Nigeria and to be able to have a government that will listen to us and talk with us and meet our needs, that will clear the insecurity in our place. This insecurity is a product of bottled-up anger. The lead that the Labour Party (LP), is enjoying in Southeast and South-South is not unconnected with this anger. The people are very angry and rightfully so. You slaughter us in a genocide, you killed three million people in a civil war, and since we came back, nothing. Look at the Niger Delta, since Yar’Adua, settled their grievances, look at how they have been sending them abroad for training and giving them empowerment and employment. See the kind of donations foreign donors are making to rebuild the North-East and empower displaced persons. What has been done to the South-East since the war ended? Nothing, other than the 20 pounds that were aimed at strangulating the people. That is what we have survived with and if you drive around the East, West, and North, you will see what we have done with 20 pounds. But our young people are angry, they finish school, five years, ten years, there is no job, nobody is looking at them as if they belong to a nation. Their anger is understandable, the anger they want to express with their votes is justifiable but that anger will not translate to the Nigerian President. We want to be president, we want to be part of the federal government that will solve our problems, in a bigger country like Nigeria, because we are the only tribe in this country that cannot be contained in our geopolitical zone. We are all over the country, we are all over West Africa, and we are all over the world. This culture of resilience and migration gave birth to the popular saying in Nigeria, “if you go anywhere and you don’t find an Igbo man, run away because that place is not habitable.”

Buhari also promised to restructure Nigerians while campaigning, but jettisoned it the moment he grabbed political power, what mechanism have those of you in PDP put in place to ensure that Atiku will also, not invade and restructure when he grabs power?

If we go to the promises of APC that they didn’t keep, it will take a whole day to discuss It. I don’t think that there were any of their promises to Nigerians that they kept. So, that is their trademark, but Atiku cannot be accused of that because everything Obasanjo and Atiku promised during their presidency, they kept and even surpassed it. Nigeria was the fastest growing economy in Africa under the PDP, we were the 7th fastest growing economy in the world and so many other landmark achievements. All the agencies that fight corruption in Nigeria, whether it is ICPC or EFCC, were established by the PDP government. APC said it came to fight corruption, Nigeria is today the most corrupt country in the world. So, let us forget about them and their promises. Atiku has written three books on restructuring, I followed him to a lecture he delivered at the University of Nigeria on restructuring. He is a businessman, world-class businessman and he knows what business is all about. We cannot survive with one feeding bottle that is drying up, there is no foreign company in Nigeria today that is producing crude oil that is investing in Nigeria. They are selling off their assets because the world is moving to renewable energy. Hydrocarbon is no longer fashionable, this hydrocarbon that we are depending on can no longer feed us again. Atiku understands that he understands that in the first Republic, cotton, groundnut, millet, and other things that the North produce in abundance, helped them build a university, it helped them construct roads, and whatever development they had in the North. In the West, with Cocoa, and Robber, they were able to build the first television in black Africa, the first stadium in Africa, free education for the whole of western Nigeria, etc. In the East, with palm oil and kernel, we built the University of Nigeria Nsukka, we built so many industries that we became the fastest-growing economy in the world. In each region, they were exploiting what God gave them. If we now devolve power to the federating units and we start mining coal again, which nobody had touched since we came back from the war, the iron ore we have in Nsude, the gas we have in Ugwu Oba and Eha-Alumona, the oil well in Uzo Uwani, why would we be looking for federal allocation, why? It is because the states have no power to deal with any of these things, they are on an exclusive legislative list, and devolution means, removing those things from the exclusive list to the federating units. That power that is exercised by the federal government will be exercised by the federating units, to enable them to explore and use proceed of their mineral and natural resources to develop their domain. So, we will now have the economy grown in the 36 states and FCT, rather than just being grown in oil wells which, are drying up. That is what restructuring is about. A state like the Netherlands, earn ten times what we get from crude oil, on agric products alone, and it is the same landmass as Niger State. So, we can imagine when the vast agricultural resources of this country are fully mechanized. Nobody will remember crude oil, that is what restructuring is, but people who don’t understand it are fighting it because they are used to feeding bottles of crude oil. No effort, just cry on your mummy’s lap, and the feeding bottle will come. Every month, they go and collect money from Abuja, nobody is ready to exploit what is around him. Nobody has the resources, power, and capacity to invite investors to come and exploit what is in their land, which Okpara, Awolowo, and Bello did.

If at the end of the day, Atiku reneges on his promise to hand over to an Igbo man, how would you hold him to account?

We have him on a written agreement, we have his speeches at rallies and political meetings. He is married to an Igbo woman, he has also had Igbo as his running mate all the time, there are other tribes in Nigeria. Is it when he kills himself before we will know that he meant what he is saying? Dead people don’t function. You hold a man to what you are used to doing with him, that he has kept track with.

Some observers said that the new CBN policy on withdrawal limit, as well as the redesigned currency, is politically motivated, do you share such sentiment?

The National Assembly has tried to prove that that is the case, and that is why they moved the implementation to June. If you follow their body language and what they have done, it looks as if that is the case and they are fighting back. We are all politicians, so, I also didn’t see the urgency in that as a person. Two things that the federal government is doing that I don’t see the urgency is changing the currency at this material time, as well as conducting a census. I have had all kinds of figures that they are mentioning, billions of Naira they are going to use to print just changing of colour of Naira. When we say that we have no money. Is that a priority at this time that we have no money? So, insisting on doing a census at the same time that we are doing general elections is out of place. In how many states, have we been able to control security so that we can send strangers to people’s houses in the village to do enumeration? But because they want to spend that money now, and eat it, that is how I, Okwesilieze Nwodo see these two things. They are not the priority of this country today, the priority is to put food on people’s tables and give them security. Give us security, use this money we want to spend on census and printing different colours of the same note to provide security for the people. When we have adequate security, we can do all those things. When the economy improves, we can do all those things.

On a scale of one to 100, if you are asked to evaluate APCs over seven years of administration, what score will you give the administration?

I will score APC very low, I will score them a complete failure in the management of the economy. I will score them as a complete failure in security, employment, education, infrastructure, etc. I don’t even know where to give them ten percent. On nepotism, that is where they will get 150 marks. Nepotism, every job must go to Hausa/Fulani, “haba”. That is the only place, they got a pass mark.