Renowned Nigerian political economist and management expert, Prof Pat Utomi, has called for urgent policy interventions and possible reversals by the Federal Government to address the deepening economic and social crises in the country. In this interview with Anthony Otaru, Utomi offers a critical assessment of Nigeria’s current trajectory while insisting that all hope is not lost
What exactly does the state of the nation, Nigeria, mean to you today?
Several existential threats define the state of our nation. These threats demand that citizens rally to save a failing country, where the elite—guided by the Franz Fanon vision—must emerge from relative obscurity, find their mission, and either fulfil or betray it. At the Big Tent, we have resolved that Nigeria’s mission is to serve as a beacon for African nations—leading others out of misery into prosperity, as Southeast Asia did. Our commitment is to the emancipation of our people—ensuring personal, economic, and political freedoms. We constantly monitor the human condition in Nigeria, review policy responses and civil society actions, and propose globally-informed alternatives that can uplift the dignity of Nigerians. This “State of the Nation” review focuses on poverty, agriculture, security, job creation through manufacturing and trade, infrastructure development, and critical sectors like education, health, gender, and youth.
How would you rate the present poverty level across Nigeria?
You don’t need statistics to see that hunger is ravaging the land. However, the numbers still alarm: 75 per cent of rural Nigerians live in chronic poverty. Contrast this with 1960, when rural cash crop farmers were the primary source of banking savings—proof that we’ve drastically regressed. The insecurity across the nation has stopped peasant farmers from farming, destroying their livelihoods. To paraphrase Scott’s Moral Economy of the Peasant, they are now so deep in water that even a ripple can drown them. Hunger, poor health, and inaccessible medical care are overwhelming millions of our compatriots. That governments can continue to operate in profligacy while millions are starving, and yet poverty isn’t the top agenda for every politician, is a national tragedy. It highlights the deepening disconnect between state and society, and an ever-widening crisis of legitimacy. Take a walk through Ibadan or Maiduguri and see the despair. Meanwhile, there is no visible federal or state-level strategy to tackle poverty’s grip. India managed to overcome similar hurdles. But our leaders prefer luxury jets and convoys of SUVs while their neighbours starve. This disgraceful reality has dismantled our traditional African culture of community and shamed the Ubuntu philosophy: “I am because we are.”
Would you say the neglect of agriculture contributes to Nigeria’s economic woes?
Absolutely. Hunger is currently at its peak because we are in the June–August lean season. When the Big Tent Shadow Cabinet met in May, our agriculture team warned of an impending food crisis. Sadly, no meaningful policy response followed. Now, international food aid is being considered. What a humiliation for a country so blessed with fertile land and hardworking people. Agriculture accounts for roughly 22 per cent of our GDP and employs over 36 per cent of our labour force. Yet, more than 30 million Nigerians across 26 states and the FCT are projected to face acute food insecurity in this lean season. Over 80 per cent of Nigerian farmers are smallholders, contributing 90 per cent of our output. Still, 47.2 per cent of the population lives in poverty, with rural areas accounting for the worst-hit. We also run an agricultural trade deficit of ₦1.037 trillion, and Nigerians spent ₦61.08 trillion on food last year, including $10 billion on imports—$3 billion of that on grains alone. Structural problems include weak land tenure systems, poor access to financing, limited infrastructure, and climate-induced insecurity. Long-term reforms must include integrating universities into agricultural extension services, overhauling the land tenure system, and supporting private-sector-driven clusters like the Integrated Produce and Mineral City.
Your take on security and its impact on the economy?
Insecurity is dragging down our agricultural output, traumatising citizens, scaring off investors, and increasing travel costs—many Nigerians now fear road travel. It’s an urgent matter. Root causes include poverty and unresolved identity politics. Violent actors easily recruit desperate, impoverished individuals. Combating poverty is essential to reducing insecurity. Beyond military and police responses, political engagement with sponsors of terror is needed. Law enforcement must be decentralised: communities and LGAs should have their armed police forces. A proposed Forest Rangers scheme under former Agriculture Minister Chief Audu Ogbeh remains a sound idea when weighed against potential agricultural productivity gains.
We see the manufacturing sector struggling. What’s your perspective?
Despite global tariff wars, Africa remains a promising frontier for manufacturing. Nigeria must adopt both national and regional strategies rooted in our comparative advantages. We envision a revival—partnering with Southeast Asian firms, establishing industrial parks in every geopolitical zone, and emphasising value-added production. For instance, Gum Arabic and leather processing in the North West, lithium battery production in the North Central, and cacao and hydrocarbons in the South West and South-South. The model is private sector–led with supportive trade and industrial policy. Infrastructure will primarily be funded through private capital and de-risked by multilateral agencies. The “manufacturing miracle” our founding fathers started in the 1960s can be reignited—with exemplary leadership.
What are your thoughts on Nigeria’s decaying infrastructure?
Nigeria’s power sector has gulped billions of dollars with little to show, while bad roads have made transporting farm produce a nightmare. The administration’s preference for borrowing and taxation over innovative infrastructure financing is misguided. Why, for instance, is the Lagos-Calabar Highway the flagship project? Its process violates due diligence and might symbolise state capture. Our Big Tent infrastructure team, led by Dr. Peter Agadah, has developed a strategy focused on enterprise-driven infrastructure—tying road, rail, housing, and ports to MSME activation and job creation. Infrastructure must serve the people, not political vanity.
Let’s talk about education and healthcare. What’s your verdict?
Education and healthcare are the bedrock of human capital. Yet, both sectors are in crisis. Despite being once globally respected, Nigeria’s healthcare system has collapsed due to poor infrastructure, weak budgets, and elite medical tourism. Over 60 per cent of Nigerian-trained doctors now work abroad. The so-called “Japa syndrome” isn’t just economic—it’s existential for healthcare workers. Similarly, our education sector is in shambles. We have the highest number of out-of-school children globally, and even those in school mostly attend low-fee private schools in slums. The Big Tent education team, led by Prof Awuzie, has proposed an education transformation plan that we urgently need.
Your views on health budgets and corruption in the sector?
Nigeria spends less than 5 per cent of its budget on health—far below the 15 per cent commitment made in the 2001 Abuja Declaration. Worse, what little is allocated often disappears through corruption. Take the Aso Rock Clinic, for instance. Despite massive allocations, it remains dysfunctional. Aisha Buhari once publicly lamented its failure. The truth is, corruption and nepotism have buried meritocracy, distorted incentives, and stripped governance of its soul. Progress is impossible unless we reverse these trends. As economists say, “Incentives matter.” And today’s incentives reward impunity.
Corruption seems entrenched. Is there any hope for reform?
The saying goes: if we don’t kill corruption, it will kill Nigeria. That danger is now real. Public cynicism is so high that anti-corruption agencies are perceived as worse than the criminals they chase. We need a new approach—starting with recruiting people of integrity into public service and leveraging technology like block chain to enforce transparency.
The Federal Government keeps borrowing. What’s your assessment?
With the National Assembly recently approving over $29 billion in new loans, we are mortgaging the future. This is unsustainable. We need a constitutional amendment mandating balanced budgets, except in cases where return on investment exceeds amortisation costs. More importantly, we must slash government waste, curb corruption, and drastically boost productivity. It’s time we moved from rhetoric to results.
